CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceESPN2Food City Center, Knoxville, TNACC/SEC Men's Challenge
Florida St
Efficiency #74
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
@
Tennessee
Efficiency #13
2025-26: 25-12 · 12-8 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · 7:00 PM ET
70.1
win 18%
Projected
80.8
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: TENN −10.7 · total 150.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee 67.1, Florida St 70.5 → 69.3 possessions
+2.0
Tennessee offense vs Florida St defense
+3.7
Florida St offense vs Tennessee defense
−3.1
Projected total
150.8
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Tennessee offense vs Florida St defense
+3.7
Florida St offense vs Tennessee defense
+3.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Tennessee by 10.7
10.7
Florida St side ◂▸ Tennessee side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.8 against +10.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida St is the faster team (71.8, #27 of 365) and Tennessee the slower (67.4, #226). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.8
model
Projected team totals
70.1 / 80.8
Florida St / Tennessee
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.5#26
Florida St
67.1#284
Tennessee

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageTennessee
Where Tennessee scores: the offensive glass
Tennessee rebounds 44.7% of its own misses (#1); Florida St lets opponents grab 34.1% of their own misses (#319). Expect about 42.2%, 11.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashFlorida St
Style match: 3-point volume
Florida St takes 50.6% of its shots from three; Tennessee lets opponents take 44.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 51.8% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversTennessee
Tennessee turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Tennessee's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Tennessee's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Florida St at about 51.8% of its shots from three, Tennessee about 37.0%.
AdvantageFlorida St
Where Florida St struggles: shooting
Florida St shoots an effective 52.3% (#132); Tennessee allows 47.8% (#37). Expect about 50.1%, 1.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversFlorida St
Florida St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Florida St's offense.
Florida St has the ball
OffenseTennessee allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #132
47.8% #37
-1.7 pt/100
15.2% #83
16.2% #214
+1.6 pt/100
30.8% #170
27.8% #61
-0.6 pt/100
34.7% #191
36.3% #221
+0.1 pt/100
71.3% #231
—
-0.1 pt/100
Florida St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100
Tennessee has the ball
OffenseFlorida St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #174
52.2% #226
+0.8 pt/100
17.3% #227
19.0% #52
-2.1 pt/100
44.7% #1
34.1% #319
+7.2 pt/100
37.4% #115
32.7% #122
-0.0 pt/100
69.1% #296
—
-0.3 pt/100
Tennessee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Florida Stoffense vsTennesseedefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida St shoots
Tennessee allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.5%#10955.1%#6058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.1%#2034.1%#4539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24141.4%#28738.0%
Three33.1%#22630.5%#2133.7%
Tennesseeoffense vsFlorida Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Tennessee shoots
Florida St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.5%#14060.2%#23658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.4%#13438.8%#15439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.7%#26838.8%#19438.0%
Three33.4%#20134.6%#22833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Florida St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#89 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#170
Def reb %
65.9%
#319
Turnover %
15.2%
#83
Forced TO %
19.0%
#52
FT rate
34.7%
#191
FT allowed
32.7%
#122
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Tennessee
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#21 of 365
Off reb %
44.7%
#1
Def reb %
72.2%
#61
Turnover %
17.3%
#227
Forced TO %
16.2%
#214
FT rate
37.4%
#115
FT allowed
36.3%
#221
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.6
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3

Tennessee has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#21 of 365) to Florida St’s +2.2 (#89).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Florida St2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Kam Taylorat UNC AshevilleGJr6'7"32-3034.718.95.03.02.649.6%28.1%4.370.1%34.2%
2Anthony Robinson IIat MissouriGSr6'3"33-1927.08.93.13.01.648.3%31.4%3.267.0%21.9%
22Sebastian Rancikat ColoradoFJr6'11"29-2628.012.35.62.01.748.0%33.1%4.186.0%25.8%
31Cooper Schwiegerat Wake ForestFSr6'10"34-1120.35.12.50.90.855.0%34.3%1.073.7%14.8%
19AJ SwintonFJr6'6"26-115.84.51.80.40.553.6%32.8%2.256.5%16.6%
1Shon Abaevat CincinnatiFSo6'8"24-1216.07.02.91.11.241.9%25.7%4.264.9%30.6%
15Jalen CrawfordGJr6'0"6-01.21.00.00.00.250.0%33.3%1.0—53.4%
7Jasen LopezGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
00Amare RobinsonGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
30Brandon Bass Jr.GFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Collin PaulFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Elise AssuiGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14JD JonesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Marcis PonderCFr7'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Martay BarnesGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Shon Abaev (from Cincinnati), Sebastian Rancik (from Colorado), Anthony Robinson II (from Missouri), Cooper Schwieger (from Wake Forest), Kam Taylor (from UNC Asheville)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Florida StTennessee
Efficiency
113.0
115.9
106.4
99.5
70.5
67.1
—
—
Shooting
52.3%
51.4%
55.1%
52.0%
33.1%
33.4%
71.3%
69.1%
34.7%
37.4%
Ball control & glass
15.2%
17.3%
19.0%
16.2%
30.8%
44.7%
34.1%
27.8%
9.4%
10.4%
12.8%
9.4%
Style
50.6%
32.1%
39.3%
48.5%
12.4%
13.7%
52.5%
60.4%
34.4%
31.7%
Roster
3.28
1.84
6'7.4"
6'5.8"
6.3%
47.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Florida St
Returning minutes: 6.3%Returning production: 4.9%
Lost
  • Lajae Jones 29.5 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Robert McCray V 28.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chauncey Wiggins 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Martin Somerville 26.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kobe MaGee 19.8 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Thomas Bassong 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
  • Kam Taylor from UNC Asheville · 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg last season
  • Anthony Robinson II from Missouri · 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Sebastian Rancik from Colorado · 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
  • Cooper Schwieger from Wake Forest · 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
  • Shon Abaev from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
  • Elise Assui no D1 minutes last season

Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Tennessee
Returning minutes: 47.2%Returning production: 42.6%
Lost
  • Ja'Kobi Gillespie 34.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nate Ament 28.1 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Felix Okpara 25.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaylen Carey 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Added
Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.