CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.8 against +10.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida St is the faster team (71.8, #27 of 365) and Tennessee the slower (67.4, #226). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.5%#109 | 55.1%#60 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#20 | 34.1%#45 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.7%#241 | 41.4%#287 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#226 | 30.5%#21 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#140 | 60.2%#236 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#134 | 38.8%#154 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.7%#268 | 38.8%#194 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#201 | 34.6%#228 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersTennessee has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#21 of 365) to Florida St’s +2.2 (#89).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kam Taylorat UNC Asheville | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-30 | 34.7 | 18.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 49.6% | 28.1% | 4.3 | 70.1% | 34.2% | |
| 2 | Anthony Robinson IIat Missouri | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-19 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 48.3% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 67.0% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Sebastian Rancikat Colorado | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-26 | 28.0 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 33.1% | 4.1 | 86.0% | 25.8% | |
| 31 | Cooper Schwiegerat Wake Forest | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-11 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 1.0 | 73.7% | 14.8% | |
| 19 | AJ Swinton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.6% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 56.5% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Shon Abaevat Cincinnati | F | So | 6'8" | 24-12 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 41.9% | 25.7% | 4.2 | 64.9% | 30.6% | |
| 15 | Jalen Crawford | G | Jr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 53.4% | |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 00 | Amare Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Brandon Bass Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Collin Paul | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Elise Assui | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | JD Jones | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Marcis Ponder | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Martay Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bishop Boswell | G | So | 6'4" | 34-33 | 26.5 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 52.2% | 38.5% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 16.4% | |
| 13 | J.P. Estrella | F | So | 6'11" | 33-13 | 18.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 60.4% | 40.0% | 0.3 | 63.4% | 29.5% | |
| 6 | DeWayne Brown II | F | Fr | 6'8" | 35-10 | 14.6 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.0% | 19.4% | |
| 1 | Amari Evans | G | Fr | 6'5" | 35-2 | 14.4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 46.1% | 22.0% | 1.4 | 57.5% | 20.0% | |
| 35 | Ethan Burg | G | So | 6'3" | 30-1 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 56.6% | 40.5% | 1.2 | 81.8% | 15.6% | |
| 77 | Amaree Abram | G | Sr | 6'3" | 25-3 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 36.8% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 18.0% | |
| 24 | Troy Henderson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 46.2% | 33.3% | 1.7 | 0.0% | 18.0% | |
| 12 | Cade Phillips | F | Jr | 6'9" | 10-9 | 16.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 65.4% | — | 0.0 | 30.8% | 13.3% | |
| 4 | Clarence Massamba | G | Fr | 6'5" | 11-0 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 21.4% | 14.3% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 13.4% | |
| 21 | Campbell Duncan | G | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 11 | Gavin Paull | G | So | 5'11" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 56.6% | |
| 7 | Grant Hurst | G | Sr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 70.0% |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kam Taylorat UNC Asheville | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-30 | 34.7 | 18.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 49.6% | 28.1% | 4.3 | 70.1% | 34.2% | |
| 2 | Anthony Robinson IIat Missouri | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-19 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 48.3% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 67.0% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Sebastian Rancikat Colorado | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-26 | 28.0 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 33.1% | 4.1 | 86.0% | 25.8% | |
| 31 | Cooper Schwiegerat Wake Forest | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-11 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 1.0 | 73.7% | 14.8% | |
| 19 | AJ Swinton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.6% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 56.5% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Shon Abaevat Cincinnati | F | So | 6'8" | 24-12 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 41.9% | 25.7% | 4.2 | 64.9% | 30.6% | |
| 15 | Jalen Crawford | G | Jr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 53.4% | |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 00 | Amare Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Brandon Bass Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Collin Paul | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Elise Assui | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | JD Jones | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Marcis Ponder | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Martay Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #1Duke | N | L 79–80 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 117.5 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Mar 11 | California | N | W 95–89 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | O184 | 136.3 | 127.7 | 69.7 |
| Mar 7 | SMU | H | W 91–78 | −1.0 | W+12.0 | 158.5 | O169 | 123.4 | 105.8 | 73.7 |
| Mar 4 | Pitt | A | W 75–74 | −1.5 | L−0.5 | 145.0 | O149 | 114.3 | 112.8 | 65.6 |
| Feb 28 | Georgia Tech | A | W 80–71 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U151 | 123.7 | 109.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 24 | Miami | H | L 73–83 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 153.5 | O156 | 103.1 | 117.2 | 70.8 |
| Feb 21 | Clemson | A | W 70–65 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 116.9 | 108.6 | 59.9 |
| Feb 17 | Boston College | H | W 80–72 | −12.0 | L−4.0 | 148.0 | O152 | 119.6 | 107.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 14 | Virginia Tech | A | W 92–69 | +4.0 | W+27.0 | 156.5 | O161 | 142.4 | 106.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 10 | #15Virginia | H | L 58–61 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 154.0 | U119 | 85.1 | 89.5 | 68.1 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | #1Michigan | N | L 62–95 | +8.0 | L−25.0 | 146.0 | O157 | 82.3 | 126.1 | 75.3 |
| Mar 27 | #2Iowa State | N | W 76–62 | +3.0 | W+17.0 | 139.5 | U138 | 111.8 | 91.2 | 68.0 |
| Mar 22 | #3Virginia | N | W 79–72 | −1.0 | W+6.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 120.5 | 109.8 | 65.5 |
| Mar 20 | #11Miami OH | N | W 78–56 | −12.0 | W+10.0 | 149.0 | U134 | 118.7 | 85.2 | 65.7 |
| Mar 13 | #22Vanderbilt | N | L 68–75 | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 109.1 | 120.3 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | Auburn | N | W 72–62 | −5.5 | W+4.5 | 145.0 | U134 | 112.8 | 97.1 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | #24Vanderbilt | H | L 82–86 | −3.0 | L−7.0 | 145.5 | O168 | 112.2 | 117.7 | 73.1 |
| Mar 3 | South Carolina | A | W 78–59 | −11.0 | W+8.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 126.6 | 95.8 | 61.6 |
| Feb 28 | #17Alabama | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 162.5 | U140 | 109.5 | 112.7 | 63.0 |
| Feb 24 | Missouri | A | L 69–73 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 144.0 | U142 | 105.3 | 111.4 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Lajae Jones 29.5 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Robert McCray V 28.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chauncey Wiggins 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Martin Somerville 26.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kobe MaGee 19.8 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Thomas Bassong 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
- Kam Taylor from UNC Asheville · 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg last season
- Anthony Robinson II from Missouri · 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Sebastian Rancik from Colorado · 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Cooper Schwieger from Wake Forest · 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
- Shon Abaev from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
- Elise Assui no D1 minutes last season
Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Ja'Kobi Gillespie 34.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nate Ament 28.1 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Felix Okpara 25.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaylen Carey 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.