CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gamePauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA

Oregon

Efficiency #143

2025-26: 12-20 · 5-16 conf

UCLA

Efficiency #37

2025-26: 24-12 · 15-8 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

67.0

win 19%

Projected

77.2

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: UCLA −10.2 · total 144.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UCLA 66.6, Oregon 67.4 → 65.7 possessions

−5.7

UCLA offense vs Oregon defense

+4.0

Oregon offense vs UCLA defense

−2.4

Projected total

144.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UCLA offense vs Oregon defense

+4.0

Oregon offense vs UCLA defense

+2.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

UCLA by 10.2

10.2

Oregon side ◂▸ UCLA side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.1 against a projected 144.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UCLA.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oregon is the faster team (66.5, #270 of 365) and UCLA the slower (65.8, #303). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.2

model

Projected team totals

67.0 / 77.2

Oregon / UCLA

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.4#258

Oregon

66.6#313

UCLA

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashOregon

Style match: ball movement

Oregon assists on 59.0% of its made baskets; UCLA allows assists on 63.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.7% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Half-court grind

UCLA averages 65.8 possessions per 40, Oregon 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageUCLA

Where UCLA scores: ball control

UCLA turns it over on 13.4% of possessions (#14); Oregon forces turnovers on 15.7% of opponent possessions (#234). Expect about 14.2%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageOregon

Where Oregon struggles: shooting

Oregon shoots an effective 49.5% (#271); UCLA allows 50.4% (#120). Expect about 49.8%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UCLA) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Oregon at about 45.5% of its shots from three, UCLA about 38.0%.

TurnoversOregon

Oregon turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Oregon's offense.

Oregon has the ball

OffenseUCLA allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #271

50.4% #120

-2.1 pt/100

17.6% #248

18.5% #76

-1.9 pt/100

32.3% #114

33.3% #304

+1.7 pt/100

35.0% #181

34.4% #163

-0.0 pt/100

73.0% #169

—

+0.1 pt/100

Oregon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.4 pts/100

UCLA has the ball

OffenseOregon allowsvs D1 avg

53.4% #85

50.9% #148

+1.4 pt/100

13.4% #14

15.7% #234

+3.2 pt/100

31.0% #162

32.3% #271

+0.8 pt/100

33.1% #237

32.0% #105

-0.3 pt/100

76.3% #46

—

+0.3 pt/100

UCLA net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Oregonoffense vsUCLAdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon shoots

33.8

7.2

16.8

42.3

UCLA allows

32.0

5.0

17.7

45.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.8%#166	61.6%#289	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.8%#178	39.6%#179	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#243	39.6%#223	38.0%
Three	32.1%#277	32.0%#64	33.7%

UCLAoffense vsOregondefense

Share of shots by zone

UCLA shoots

31.4

5.8

27.4

35.5

Oregon allows

30.9

6.5

20.6

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.3%#67	57.2%#122	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.2%#116	44.5%#282	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#59	43.9%#339	38.0%
Three	37.9%#19	33.4%#144	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Oregon

−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#193 of 365

Off reb %

32.3%

#114

Def reb %

67.7%

#271

Turnover %

17.6%

#248

Forced TO %

15.7%

#234

FT rate

35.0%

#181

FT allowed

32.0%

#105

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.8

UCLA

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#75 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#162

Def reb %

66.7%

#304

Turnover %

13.4%

#14

Forced TO %

18.5%

#76

FT rate

33.1%

#237

FT allowed

34.4%

#163

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+0.2

UCLA has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#75 of 365) to Oregon’s −0.4 (#193).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Oregon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Takai Simpkins	G	Sr	6'4"	31-31	32.0	12.5	2.9	2.4	2.1	51.0%	35.7%	4.5	84.8%	24.7%
10	Kwame Evans Jr.	F	Jr	6'10"	30-30	31.0	13.3	7.4	2.0	1.9	51.1%	30.4%	3.4	79.9%	25.9%
13	Sean Stewart	F	Jr	6'9"	32-23	23.0	6.5	5.2	1.2	1.2	51.2%	100.0%	0.0	53.3%	19.4%
4	Dezdrick Lindsay	F	Sr	6'6"	32-8	20.5	5.3	2.8	1.5	0.8	46.4%	32.8%	1.8	58.3%	18.7%
23	Wei Lin	G	So	6'4"	30-9	17.5	6.6	0.9	1.7	1.2	43.1%	29.5%	3.5	82.4%	27.4%
12	Drew Carter	G	Sr	6'3"	25-11	14.8	2.7	1.2	0.8	0.8	53.4%	34.8%	1.8	85.7%	13.5%
24	Jamari Phillips	G	So	6'4"	26-0	11.3	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.5	43.8%	29.5%	2.3	83.3%	18.7%
22	Devon Pryor	F	Jr	6'7"	16-11	18.1	2.9	2.5	1.2	0.6	47.5%	22.2%	1.1	47.4%	11.9%
6	Oleksandr Kobzystyi	F	Sr	6'8"	19-0	9.6	2.7	1.3	0.3	0.1	53.6%	39.1%	1.2	66.7%	16.0%
16	Ege Demir	C	Jr	6'11"	19-0	9.0	2.2	3.5	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	28.6%	21.5%
7	Luke Johnson	F	So	6'8"	11-0	6.0	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.2	41.7%	25.0%	0.7	50.0%	15.8%
0	Efe Vatan	F	Fr	6'10"	5-0	3.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	66.7%	23.3%
35	Miles Stewart	F	Sr	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
15	Rian Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UCLA2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Donovan Dent	G	Sr	6'2"	35-34	34.4	13.3	2.9	7.6	1.8	43.0%	25.4%	2.0	65.6%	28.4%
0	Trent Perry	G	So	6'4"	35-24	29.9	12.6	3.0	2.8	1.3	51.5%	39.2%	3.4	85.8%	24.5%
3	Eric Dailey Jr.	G	Jr	6'8"	35-35	27.6	11.6	5.8	1.3	1.3	53.4%	31.6%	2.8	69.9%	25.9%
55	Skyy Clark	G	Sr	6'3"	26-23	28.6	11.5	2.3	2.0	1.0	58.6%	42.7%	4.8	82.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Booker	F	Jr	6'11"	36-27	20.2	7.3	3.5	0.8	0.6	62.4%	43.3%	1.9	67.5%	19.5%
4	Jamar Brown	G	Sr	6'5"	36-2	15.6	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.3	54.0%	33.8%	2.1	100.0%	14.0%
5	Brandon Williams	G	So	6'7"	34-4	12.2	2.6	1.9	0.3	0.2	45.5%	24.0%	0.7	64.5%	14.5%
24	Steven Jamerson II	F	Sr	6'10"	33-1	10.2	2.0	2.1	0.5	0.6	75.0%	—	0.0	63.0%	12.0%
8	Eric Freeny	G	Fr	6'4"	28-0	11.0	2.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	46.4%	37.0%	1.0	50.0%	13.7%
23	Anthony Peoples Jr.	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	2.2	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	10.9%
30	Jack Seidler	G	Jr	6'4"	6-0	1.5	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.2	16.7%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	48.9%
7	Christian Horry	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	16.4%
21	Evan Manjikian	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Markell Alston	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oregon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Takai Simpkins	G	Sr	6'4"	31-31	32.0	12.5	2.9	2.4	2.1	51.0%	35.7%	4.5	84.8%	24.7%
10	Kwame Evans Jr.	F	Jr	6'10"	30-30	31.0	13.3	7.4	2.0	1.9	51.1%	30.4%	3.4	79.9%	25.9%
13	Sean Stewart	F	Jr	6'9"	32-23	23.0	6.5	5.2	1.2	1.2	51.2%	100.0%	0.0	53.3%	19.4%
4	Dezdrick Lindsay	F	Sr	6'6"	32-8	20.5	5.3	2.8	1.5	0.8	46.4%	32.8%	1.8	58.3%	18.7%
23	Wei Lin	G	So	6'4"	30-9	17.5	6.6	0.9	1.7	1.2	43.1%	29.5%	3.5	82.4%	27.4%
12	Drew Carter	G	Sr	6'3"	25-11	14.8	2.7	1.2	0.8	0.8	53.4%	34.8%	1.8	85.7%	13.5%
24	Jamari Phillips	G	So	6'4"	26-0	11.3	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.5	43.8%	29.5%	2.3	83.3%	18.7%
22	Devon Pryor	F	Jr	6'7"	16-11	18.1	2.9	2.5	1.2	0.6	47.5%	22.2%	1.1	47.4%	11.9%
6	Oleksandr Kobzystyi	F	Sr	6'8"	19-0	9.6	2.7	1.3	0.3	0.1	53.6%	39.1%	1.2	66.7%	16.0%
16	Ege Demir	C	Jr	6'11"	19-0	9.0	2.2	3.5	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	28.6%	21.5%
7	Luke Johnson	F	So	6'8"	11-0	6.0	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.2	41.7%	25.0%	0.7	50.0%	15.8%
0	Efe Vatan	F	Fr	6'10"	5-0	3.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	66.7%	23.3%
35	Miles Stewart	F	Sr	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
15	Rian Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Oregon

Against the spread

Season

12-20

Home

7-10

Road

4-6

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.9

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	MarylandAdjEM #198	N	L 60–70	−4.0	L−14.0	139.0	U130	95.6	111.5	62.8
Mar 7	WashingtonAdjEM #59	H	W 85–79	+1.5	W+7.5	146.0	O164	129.7	120.5	65.5
Mar 3	#11IllinoisAdjEM #4	A	L 54–80	+17.5	L−8.5	147.0	U134	78.9	116.9	68.5
Feb 28	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	A	L 62–63	+3.5	W+2.5	142.5	U125	97.3	98.9	63.7
Feb 25	WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 85–71	+5.5	W+19.5	153.0	O156	122.8	102.5	69.2
Feb 21	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 71–70	+5.0	W+6.0	149.5	U141	101.3	99.8	70.1
Feb 17	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	H	L 44–61	−3.5	L−20.5	134.5	U105	73.5	101.9	59.9
Feb 14	Penn StateAdjEM #194	H	W 83–72	−6.5	W+4.5	147.0	O155	126.5	109.7	65.6
Feb 9	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	L 74–92	+11.0	L−7.0	143.5	O166	111.5	138.7	66.3
Feb 7	#12PurdueAdjEM #9	A	L 64–68	+18.5	W+14.5	145.0	U132	96.6	102.7	66.2

UCLA

Against the spread

Season

15-19-2

Home

10-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +4.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

17-19

Home

9-9

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +3.6

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 57–73	+5.5	L−10.5	136.0	U130	90.5	115.9	63.0
Mar 20	#10UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 75–71	−6.0	L−2.0	152.0	U146	106.3	100.6	70.6
Mar 14	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 66–73	+7.0	P0.0	145.0	U139	110.7	122.4	59.6
Mar 13	#8Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	W 88–84	+5.0	W+9.0	141.5	O172	131.9	125.9	66.7
Mar 12	RutgersAdjEM #192	N	W 72–59	−10.5	W+2.5	142.5	U131	104.6	85.7	68.8
Mar 7	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 89–68	−5.0	W+16.0	151.0	O157	142.2	108.7	62.6
Mar 3	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	H	W 72–52	+1.0	W+21.0	144.5	U124	118.7	85.7	60.6
Feb 28	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 73–78	−1.5	L−6.5	135.5	O151	131.4	140.4	55.6
Feb 24	USCAdjEM #97	H	W 81–62	−7.0	W+12.0	150.5	U143	123.4	94.5	65.6
Feb 21	#10IllinoisAdjEM #4	H	W 95–94 OT	+6.0	W+7.0	147.0	O189	130.4	129.0	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

OregonUCLA

Efficiency

108.8

115.9

107.2

104.5

67.4

66.6

—

Shooting

49.5%

53.4%

50.5%

51.4%

32.1%

37.9%

73.0%

76.3%

35.0%

33.1%

Ball control & glass

17.6%

13.4%

15.7%

18.5%

32.3%

31.0%

32.3%

33.3%

10.3%

7.3%

9.5%

8.1%

Style

42.8%

35.5%

39.5%

38.2%

10.1%

11.7%

59.0%

59.2%

29.6%

27.0%

Roster

3.25

3.12

6'6.6"

6'5.5"

81.4%

87.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Oregon

Returning minutes: 81.4%Returning production: 72.8%

Lost

Nate Bittle 24.3 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jackson Shelstad 13.1 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Rian Gonzales no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 81% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UCLA

Returning minutes: 87.1%Returning production: 82.4%

Lost

Tyler Bilodeau 26.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Markell Alston no D1 minutes last season
Evan Manjikian no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Jan 28	2025-26	UCLA 73 – 57 Oregon
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Oregon 63 – 74 UCLA

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.