CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameMackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Iowa
Efficiency #22
2025-26: 24-13 · 11-11 conf
@
Purdue
Efficiency #9
2025-26: 30-9 · 17-7 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
69.2
win 28%
Projected
75.9
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: PUR −6.7 · total 145.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Purdue 66.3, Iowa 65.0 → 63.0 possessions
−11.5
Purdue offense vs Iowa defense
+5.8
Iowa offense vs Purdue defense
+2.7
Projected total
145.1
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Purdue offense vs Iowa defense
+5.8
Iowa offense vs Purdue defense
−2.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.6
Purdue by 6.7
6.7
Iowa side ◂▸ Purdue side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.2 against a projected 145.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Purdue.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 63.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Purdue is the faster team (65.2, #324 of 365) and Iowa the slower (62.8, #365). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
63.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.1
model
Projected team totals
69.2 / 75.9
Iowa / Purdue
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.0#363
Iowa
66.3#329
Purdue
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Purdue averages 65.2 possessions per 40, Iowa 62.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantagePurdue
Where Purdue scores: shooting
Purdue shoots an effective 57.6% (#10); Iowa allows 52.6% (#245). Expect about 55.6%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIowa
Where Iowa scores: shooting
Iowa shoots an effective 56.4% (#17); Purdue allows 52.4% (#232). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversIowa
Iowa protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Iowa's offense.
GlassPurdue
Purdue owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Purdue's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Purdue) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Iowa at about 45.1% of its shots from three, Purdue about 40.4%.
Iowa has the ball
OffensePurdue allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #17
52.4% #232
+5.0 pt/100
15.1% #73
15.3% #263
+2.3 pt/100
30.2% #192
27.1% #39
-1.1 pt/100
35.1% #176
25.5% #9
-0.7 pt/100
76.9% #34
—
+0.4 pt/100
Iowa net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.9 pts/100
Purdue has the ball
OffenseIowa allowsvs D1 avg
57.6% #10
52.6% #245
+6.2 pt/100
13.7% #17
20.3% #17
-0.6 pt/100
36.4% #19
29.2% #119
+2.2 pt/100
28.6% #336
38.5% #272
-0.1 pt/100
74.6% #99
—
+0.2 pt/100
Purdue net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersIowaoffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Iowa shoots
38.4
7.1
11.5
43.0
Purdue allows
28.2
7.0
20.0
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.8%#25 | 62.6%#316 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.1%#145 | 44.3%#276 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.0%#26 | 43.0%#329 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#85 | 34.1%#192 | 33.7% |
Purdueoffense vsIowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
28.0
8.8
23.5
39.7
Iowa allows
37.6
6.4
16.4
39.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#1 | 65.5%#354 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#70 | 44.2%#273 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.2%#13 | 32.5%#21 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#11 | 33.3%#141 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersIowa
+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#51 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#192
Def reb %
70.8%
#119
Turnover %
15.1%
#73
Forced TO %
20.3%
#17
FT rate
35.1%
#176
FT allowed
38.5%
#272
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+2.5
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Purdue
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#20 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#19
Def reb %
72.9%
#39
Turnover %
13.7%
#17
Forced TO %
15.3%
#263
FT rate
28.6%
#336
FT allowed
25.5%
#9
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+2.5
Purdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#20 of 365) to Iowa’s +3.2 (#51).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Iowa2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cooper Koch | F | Fr | 6'8" | 37-37 | 28.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 58.6% | 40.2% | 4.4 | 83.3% | 15.6% | |
| 11 | Kael Combs | G | Jr | 6'4" | 37-33 | 26.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 54.4% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% | |
| 6 | Tavion Banks | G | Sr | 6'7" | 37-35 | 23.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 55.9% | 44.2% | 1.2 | 79.2% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Cam Manyawu | F | Jr | 6'9" | 37-37 | 19.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 63.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.5% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Isaia Howard | G | So | 6'5" | 37-5 | 18.2 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 28.1% | 1.7 | 69.4% | 19.0% | |
| 24 | Tate Sage | G | Fr | 6'7" | 37-0 | 16.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 38.9% | 1.9 | 71.1% | 21.3% | |
| 27 | Trevin Jirak | C | Fr | 6'11" | 17-0 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 51.3% | 16.7% | 1.1 | 70.4% | 30.8% | |
| 44 | Joey Matteoni | F | Fr | 6'9" | 11-0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 53.3% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 26.8% | |
| 10 | Jacob Koch | G | So | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 17.3% | |
| 5 | Peyton McCollum | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Trey Thompson | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Purdue2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Iowa2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cooper Koch | F | Fr | 6'8" | 37-37 | 28.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 58.6% | 40.2% | 4.4 | 83.3% | 15.6% | |
| 11 | Kael Combs | G | Jr | 6'4" | 37-33 | 26.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 54.4% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% | |
| 6 | Tavion Banks | G | Sr | 6'7" | 37-35 | 23.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 55.9% | 44.2% | 1.2 | 79.2% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Cam Manyawu | F | Jr | 6'9" | 37-37 | 19.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 63.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.5% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Isaia Howard | G | So | 6'5" | 37-5 | 18.2 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 28.1% | 1.7 | 69.4% | 19.0% | |
| 24 | Tate Sage | G | Fr | 6'7" | 37-0 | 16.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 38.9% | 1.9 | 71.1% | 21.3% | |
| 27 | Trevin Jirak | C | Fr | 6'11" | 17-0 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 51.3% | 16.7% | 1.1 | 70.4% | 30.8% | |
| 44 | Joey Matteoni | F | Fr | 6'9" | 11-0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 53.3% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 26.8% | |
| 10 | Jacob Koch | G | So | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 17.3% | |
| 5 | Peyton McCollum | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Trey Thompson | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Iowa
Against the spread
Season
21-16
Home
11-7
Road
5-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
20-15-2
Home
9-8-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
4-5-1
avg vs total +1.1
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | #3Illinois | N | L 59–71 | +7.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U130 | 107.6 | 129.5 | 54.8 |
| Mar 26 | #4Nebraska | N | W 77–71 | +1.5 | W+7.5 | 131.0 | O148 | 127.4 | 117.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 22 | #1Florida | N | W 73–72 | +10.0 | W+11.0 | 145.0 | P145 | 119.4 | 117.8 | 61.1 |
| Mar 20 | #8Clemson | N | W 67–61 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 131.0 | U128 | 124.7 | 113.6 | 53.7 |
| Mar 12 | Ohio State | N | L 69–72 | −1.5 | L−4.5 | 140.5 | O141 | 118.9 | 124.1 | 58.0 |
| Mar 11 | Maryland | N | W 75–64 | −12.0 | L−1.0 | 134.5 | O139 | 114.1 | 97.4 | 65.7 |
| Mar 8 | #9Nebraska | A | L 75–84 OT | +5.0 | L−4.0 | 136.5 | O159 | 100.7 | 112.8 | 74.5 |
| Mar 5 | #3Michigan | H | L 68–71 | +9.0 | W+6.0 | 147.0 | U139 | 104.5 | 109.1 | 65.1 |
| Feb 28 | Penn State | A | L 69–71 | −9.0 | L−11.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 116.1 | 119.5 | 59.4 |
| Feb 25 | Ohio State | H | W 74–57 | −6.0 | W+11.0 | 140.5 | U131 | 126.4 | 97.4 | 58.5 |
Purdue
Against the spread
Season
17-21-1
Home
5-12
Road
6-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −0.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite, 1 push
Over / under
Season
22-17
Home
12-5
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
| Mar 12 | Northwestern | N | W 81–68 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 136.3 | 114.4 | 59.4 |
| Mar 7 | Wisconsin | H | L 93–97 | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 141.5 | 147.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Northwestern | A | W 70–66 | −10.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 121.8 | 114.9 | 57.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIowaPurdue
Efficiency
117.6
122.7
103.4
103.6
65.0
66.3
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
57.6%
58.6%
57.7%
35.6%
38.3%
76.9%
74.6%
35.1%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
15.1%
13.7%
20.3%
15.3%
30.2%
36.4%
29.2%
27.1%
8.1%
8.0%
8.8%
6.4%
Style
43.0%
40.2%
43.9%
40.7%
9.6%
9.4%
57.7%
65.6%
32.9%
29.8%
Roster
2.31
1.73
6'6.8"
6'5.8"
68.0%
42.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIowa
Returning minutes: 68.0%Returning production: 61.3%
Lost
- Bennett Stirtz 37.8 mpg, 19.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Alvaro Folgueiras 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Brendan Hausen 5.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Peyton McCollum no D1 minutes last season
- Trey Thompson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Purdue
Returning minutes: 42.3%Returning production: 32.3%
Lost
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
- Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
- Sam King no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Feb 14 | 2025-26 | Purdue 78 – 57 Iowa |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 2025-26 | Iowa 72 – 79 Purdue |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.