CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAddition Financial Arena, Orlando, FL

Jacksonville

Efficiency #294

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf

UCF

Efficiency #70

2025-26: 21-12 · 10-10 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

67.6

win 13%

Projected

80.8

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: UCF −13.3 · total 148.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UCF 69.6, Jacksonville 65.8 → 67.0 possessions

−2.8

UCF offense vs Jacksonville defense

+6.2

Jacksonville offense vs UCF defense

−3.2

Projected total

148.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UCF offense vs Jacksonville defense

+6.2

Jacksonville offense vs UCF defense

+3.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UCF by 13.3

13.3

Jacksonville side ◂▸ UCF side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UCF.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UCF is the faster team (70.6, #70 of 365) and Jacksonville the slower (65.2, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.4

model

Projected team totals

67.6 / 80.8

Jacksonville / UCF

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.8#348

Jacksonville

69.6#78

UCF

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageUCF

Where UCF scores: shooting

UCF shoots an effective 52.6% (#123); Jacksonville allows 54.8% (#325). Expect about 53.8%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

UCF averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Jacksonville 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UCF, Jacksonville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jacksonville at about 37.7% of its shots from three, UCF about 33.0%.

TurnoversUCF

UCF protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for UCF's offense.

ClashUCF

Style match: 3-point volume

UCF rarely shoots threes (34.8% of its shots); Jacksonville runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.0% — both habits push the same way.

GlassUCF

UCF owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for UCF's offense.

Jacksonville has the ball

OffenseUCF allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #232

52.1% #221

-0.4 pt/100

17.2% #223

15.7% #240

+0.5 pt/100

31.7% #137

28.8% #96

+0.1 pt/100

32.8% #242

34.9% #177

-0.1 pt/100

72.3% #198

—

-0.0 pt/100

Jacksonville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.0 pts/100

UCF has the ball

OffenseJacksonville allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #123

54.8% #325

+3.6 pt/100

16.0% #137

15.0% #290

+2.0 pt/100

35.0% #47

29.1% #115

+1.6 pt/100

30.5% #295

42.7% #336

+0.3 pt/100

72.9% #173

—

+0.0 pt/100

UCF net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Jacksonvilleoffense vsUCFdefense

Share of shots by zone

Jacksonville shoots

41.3

5.4

16.2

37.0

UCF allows

34.9

7.2

18.5

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#235	59.2%#198	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#346	43.1%#254	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#89	42.0%#306	38.0%
Three	31.7%#289	33.9%#176	33.7%

UCFoffense vsJacksonvilledefense

Share of shots by zone

UCF shoots

38.6

7.8

19.3

34.3

Jacksonville allows

46.3

7.1

12.1

34.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.9%#121	62.6%#312	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	34.9%#74	38.0%
Three	36.2%#49	36.3%#318	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Jacksonville

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#307 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#137

Def reb %

70.9%

#115

Turnover %

17.2%

#223

Forced TO %

15.0%

#290

FT rate

32.8%

#242

FT allowed

42.7%

#336

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−1.9

UCF

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#144 of 365

Off reb %

35.0%

#47

Def reb %

71.2%

#96

Turnover %

16.0%

#137

Forced TO %

15.7%

#240

FT rate

30.5%

#295

FT allowed

34.9%

#177

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.1

UCF has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#144 of 365) to Jacksonville’s −3.1 (#307).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Hayden Wood	G	Fr	6'6"	32-31	27.0	11.8	3.2	1.3	0.8	55.9%	37.7%	4.7	71.6%	24.8%
2	Jaylen Jones	G	Jr	6'0"	31-29	26.9	9.7	3.5	2.6	2.1	49.4%	33.3%	2.7	66.7%	26.1%
34	Evan Sterck	G	Fr	6'1"	32-23	24.7	6.4	2.0	3.1	1.5	47.6%	30.6%	3.1	78.8%	19.6%
11	Chris Lockett Jr.	G	So	6'4"	32-11	24.5	9.3	3.1	1.7	0.8	45.1%	30.6%	3.4	84.6%	24.9%
31	Jason Thirdkill Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	22.6	8.0	5.4	0.5	0.8	56.3%	30.4%	1.8	76.1%	19.9%
33	Donovan Rivers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-28	20.0	8.6	4.6	0.6	1.6	54.9%	0.0%	0.1	64.4%	27.7%
1	Chris Arias	G	So	6'6"	30-4	17.9	7.3	2.3	0.7	0.7	52.7%	36.1%	4.0	84.4%	24.5%
22	Charles Caporaso	C	So	7'0"	26-4	10.7	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	57.1%	0.0%	0.0	75.0%	21.1%
14	Allen Udemadu	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	11.4	3.6	2.5	0.2	1.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.8%
23	Enrico Borio	F	So	6'8"	21-5	12.1	3.0	1.8	0.5	0.7	46.6%	27.7%	2.2	53.8%	18.1%
0	Jaylen Jordon	F	Sr	6'8"	22-1	11.5	3.5	2.7	0.3	1.0	61.1%	—	0.0	71.4%	19.2%
9	Michael Harper Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	15-0	6.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	41.5%	23.1%	0.9	20.0%	29.6%
10	Simon Wheeler	G	Sr	5'10"	8-0	7.4	1.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	50.0%	20.0%	0.6	0.0%	19.3%
4	Anakin Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	9.7	1.7	2.0	1.0	0.3	16.7%	16.7%	2.0	66.7%	18.9%
6	Lamont Jackson	G	So	6'0"	4-0	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	41.7%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.8%
12	Roman Loux	G	Fr	6'0"	4-0	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	21.2%
5	Tito Deng	F	Jr	6'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UCF2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Jordan Burks	F	Jr	6'9"	33-33	28.2	13.3	4.8	0.7	0.9	54.5%	37.3%	4.9	78.2%	24.9%
4	Jamichael Stillwell	F	Sr	6'8"	31-30	28.4	11.6	8.2	2.2	1.6	52.6%	30.8%	1.3	70.2%	23.8%
7	John Bol	C	So	7'2"	33-33	18.7	5.9	5.5	0.3	1.2	71.7%	0.0%	0.0	61.5%	16.2%
35	Devan Cambridge	F	Sr	6'6"	33-3	17.4	5.4	3.5	0.8	0.6	51.5%	27.9%	1.8	70.5%	17.6%
22	Chris Johnson	G	Jr	6'5"	32-2	15.8	6.2	1.4	1.9	0.7	52.8%	36.5%	2.7	70.0%	22.7%
11	Carmelo Pacheco	G	Jr	6'5"	31-0	15.6	4.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	58.1%	39.4%	3.5	100.0%	14.7%
0	Jeremy Foumena	C	Jr	6'11"	26-0	9.6	3.5	2.3	0.2	0.4	54.8%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	21.4%
3	George Beale Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	25-0	8.2	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	2.4	83.3%	29.0%
5	Kris Parker	G	So	6'9"	21-0	6.2	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.7	58.3%	28.6%	0.3	58.8%	20.5%
9	Elijah Hulsewe	C	Jr	7'0"	17-0	4.7	1.1	1.4	0.1	0.2	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	11.8%
24	Zach Johnson	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	1.8	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	5.3%
33	Poohpha Warakulnukroh	G	Sr	5'11"	4-0	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	33.3%	—	0.0	—	46.8%
30	Tanner Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Hayden Wood	G	Fr	6'6"	32-31	27.0	11.8	3.2	1.3	0.8	55.9%	37.7%	4.7	71.6%	24.8%
2	Jaylen Jones	G	Jr	6'0"	31-29	26.9	9.7	3.5	2.6	2.1	49.4%	33.3%	2.7	66.7%	26.1%
34	Evan Sterck	G	Fr	6'1"	32-23	24.7	6.4	2.0	3.1	1.5	47.6%	30.6%	3.1	78.8%	19.6%
11	Chris Lockett Jr.	G	So	6'4"	32-11	24.5	9.3	3.1	1.7	0.8	45.1%	30.6%	3.4	84.6%	24.9%
31	Jason Thirdkill Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	22.6	8.0	5.4	0.5	0.8	56.3%	30.4%	1.8	76.1%	19.9%
33	Donovan Rivers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-28	20.0	8.6	4.6	0.6	1.6	54.9%	0.0%	0.1	64.4%	27.7%
1	Chris Arias	G	So	6'6"	30-4	17.9	7.3	2.3	0.7	0.7	52.7%	36.1%	4.0	84.4%	24.5%
22	Charles Caporaso	C	So	7'0"	26-4	10.7	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	57.1%	0.0%	0.0	75.0%	21.1%
14	Allen Udemadu	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	11.4	3.6	2.5	0.2	1.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.8%
23	Enrico Borio	F	So	6'8"	21-5	12.1	3.0	1.8	0.5	0.7	46.6%	27.7%	2.2	53.8%	18.1%
0	Jaylen Jordon	F	Sr	6'8"	22-1	11.5	3.5	2.7	0.3	1.0	61.1%	—	0.0	71.4%	19.2%
9	Michael Harper Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	15-0	6.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	41.5%	23.1%	0.9	20.0%	29.6%
10	Simon Wheeler	G	Sr	5'10"	8-0	7.4	1.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	50.0%	20.0%	0.6	0.0%	19.3%
4	Anakin Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	9.7	1.7	2.0	1.0	0.3	16.7%	16.7%	2.0	66.7%	18.9%
6	Lamont Jackson	G	So	6'0"	4-0	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	41.7%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.8%
12	Roman Loux	G	Fr	6'0"	4-0	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	21.2%
5	Tito Deng	F	Jr	6'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Jacksonville

Against the spread

Season

12-17-1

Home

4-6

Road

7-9-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-18

Home

4-6

Road

7-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.0

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	BellarmineAdjEM #281	N	L 79–82	+2.0	L−1.0	146.5	O161	123.8	128.6	63.8
Feb 28	North FloridaAdjEM #338	A	W 85–61	−1.5	W+22.5	150.0	U146	123.1	88.3	69.1
Feb 26	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 89–85	−7.0	L−3.0	140.0	O174	132.3	126.3	67.3
Feb 21	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	L 61–65	+5.5	W+1.5	142.5	U126	101.0	107.6	60.4
Feb 18	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 84–86	+6.5	W+4.5	136.0	O170	127.6	130.6	65.8
Feb 14	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 63–56	−7.5	L−0.5	153.0	U119	108.2	96.1	58.3
Feb 11	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 62–67	−1.5	L−6.5	138.5	U129	99.0	107.0	62.6
Feb 7	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	A	L 73–87	−1.0	L−15.0	138.0	O160	108.1	128.8	67.5
Feb 5	QueensAdjEM #191	A	L 84–93	+8.5	L−0.5	147.5	O177	119.0	131.8	70.6
Jan 31	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	L 49–68	−2.0	L−21.0	137.5	U117	74.2	103.0	66.0

UCF

Against the spread

Season

16-16-1

Home

8-10-1

Road

5-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.2

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-19

Home

11-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.5

Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7UCLAAdjEM #37	N	L 71–75	+6.0	W+2.0	152.0	U146	100.6	106.3	70.6
Mar 12	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 59–81	+15.5	L−6.5	158.5	U140	86.2	118.4	68.4
Mar 11	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	N	W 66–65 OT	+3.5	W+4.5	149.0	U131	86.3	85.0	76.5
Mar 6	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	A	L 62–77	+4.5	L−10.5	141.5	U139	92.9	115.4	66.7
Mar 3	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	L 104–111 OT	−8.5	L−15.5	168.5	O215	119.3	127.3	87.2
Feb 28	BaylorAdjEM #55	H	L 86–87	−1.5	L−2.5	159.0	O173	129.8	131.3	66.2
Feb 24	#19BYUAdjEM #26	A	W 97–84	+13.5	W+26.5	161.5	O181	125.0	108.3	77.6
Feb 21	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 73–71	+1.0	W+3.0	153.0	U144	117.2	114.0	62.3
Feb 17	TCUAdjEM #51	H	W 82–71	+1.0	W+12.0	155.0	U153	115.2	99.8	71.2
Feb 14	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	L 67–74	−3.5	L−10.5	140.5	O141	98.8	109.1	67.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

JacksonvilleUCF

Efficiency

104.9

114.3

111.9

107.2

65.8

69.6

—

Shooting

50.0%

52.6%

51.5%

51.7%

31.7%

36.2%

72.3%

72.9%

32.8%

30.5%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

16.0%

15.0%

15.7%

31.7%

35.0%

29.1%

28.8%

10.2%

8.6%

7.5%

9.4%

Style

37.4%

34.8%

44.0%

46.8%

11.1%

14.7%

44.7%

53.7%

38.8%

32.0%

Roster

2.36

3.19

6'5.2"

6'8.2"

—

70.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Jacksonville

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UCF

Returning minutes: 70.2%Returning production: 69.2%

Lost

Themus Fulks 32.8 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Riley Kugel 27.2 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Tanner Jones no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.