CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Grambling
Efficiency #290
2025-26: 14-19 · 8-12 conf
@
LSU N Orleans
Efficiency #221
2025-26: 15-18 · 13-11 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · TBD
70.1
win 27%
Projected
77.1
win 73%
No line posted yet.
Model: NOLA −7.0 · total 147.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: LSU N Orleans 69.8, Grambling 68.4 → 70.0 possessions
+3.6
LSU N Orleans offense vs Grambling defense
−0.8
Grambling offense vs LSU N Orleans defense
−3.8
Projected total
147.2
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
LSU N Orleans offense vs Grambling defense
−0.8
Grambling offense vs LSU N Orleans defense
+3.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
LSU N Orleans by 7.0
7.0
Grambling side ◂▸ LSU N Orleans side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help LSU N Orleans.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, LSU N Orleans is the faster team (69.7, #107 of 365) and Grambling the slower (69.4, #123). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.2
model
Projected team totals
70.1 / 77.1
Grambling / LSU N Orleans
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.4#174
Grambling
69.8#61
LSU N Orleans

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLSU N Orleans
Where LSU N Orleans struggles: ball control
LSU N Orleans turns it over on 20.5% of possessions (#353); Grambling forces turnovers on 20.8% of opponent possessions (#12). Expect about 21.4%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGrambling
Where Grambling struggles: shooting
Grambling shoots an effective 48.8% (#295); LSU N Orleans allows 49.0% (#71). Expect about 48.7%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLSU N Orleans
LSU N Orleans owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.1% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for LSU N Orleans's offense.
ClashLSU N Orleans
Style match: 3-point volume
LSU N Orleans rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Grambling runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.1% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversGrambling
Grambling turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Grambling's offense.
Grambling has the ball
OffenseLSU N Orleans allowsvs D1 avg
48.8% #295
49.0% #71
-3.7 pt/100
21.2% #357
14.9% #302
-1.6 pt/100
30.3% #188
34.5% #325
+1.2 pt/100
41.1% #45
39.5% #296
+0.7 pt/100
72.9% #172
—
+0.0 pt/100
Grambling net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100
LSU N Orleans has the ball
OffenseGrambling allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #258
50.0% #97
-2.3 pt/100
20.5% #353
20.8% #12
-5.7 pt/100
35.6% #34
32.5% #280
+2.8 pt/100
46.4% #1
40.0% #302
+1.1 pt/100
74.3% #114
—
+0.2 pt/100
LSU N Orleans net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Gramblingoffense vsLSU N Orleansdefense
Share of shots by zone
Grambling shoots
LSU N Orleans allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.0%#27354.3%#4658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)26.0%#36436.9%#10839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.9%#33041.2%#28038.0%
Three32.3%#26532.4%#8633.7%
LSU N Orleansoffense vsGramblingdefense
Share of shots by zone
LSU N Orleans shoots
Grambling allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.9%#24456.4%#9758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.8%#8630.3%#1639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17736.9%#12638.0%
Three31.8%#28732.7%#9933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Grambling
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#201 of 365
Off reb %
30.3%
#188
Def reb %
67.5%
#280
Turnover %
21.2%
#357
Forced TO %
20.8%
#12
FT rate
41.1%
#45
FT allowed
40.0%
#302
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−3.0
Forcing turnovers+2.8
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−1.2
LSU N Orleans
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#256 of 365
Off reb %
35.6%
#34
Def reb %
65.5%
#325
Turnover %
20.5%
#353
Forced TO %
14.9%
#302
FT rate
46.4%
#1
FT allowed
39.5%
#296
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−2.5
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn+2.9
Foul shots allowed−1.1

Grambling has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#201 of 365) to LSU N Orleans’s −1.5 (#256).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Grambling2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Roderick Coffee IIIFSr6'4"31-3133.510.94.64.22.650.4%37.5%3.975.3%21.6%
0Derrius WardGSr6'6"32-2030.710.73.22.42.247.5%33.3%4.778.5%23.4%
11Jamil MuttilibGSr6'6"33-2326.912.13.40.51.252.8%32.6%5.382.4%25.3%
3Rickey BallardFSr6'7"33-2222.37.12.70.90.854.7%37.6%4.075.4%17.9%
15Antonio MunozFFr6'6"28-2124.812.53.52.02.547.4%5.9%0.666.3%33.1%
21Devyn FranklinGSr6'8"33-2319.24.84.50.71.242.0%4.8%0.668.8%18.6%
5Jimel LaneFSr6'7"28-1422.48.34.51.01.746.4%21.4%1.580.0%24.3%
24Randarius JonesCSr6'7"20-715.65.03.10.51.148.7%—0.078.8%21.3%
23Mekhi FittsFJr6'7"23-310.73.32.50.31.064.4%66.7%0.158.1%19.0%
10Richard AmaefuleFSr6'9"14-08.21.50.90.10.735.0%0.0%0.187.5%16.9%
7Saliou SeyeFSr7'0"15-17.11.81.40.10.750.0%0.0%0.323.1%22.0%
4P.J. EdwardsGSr6'4"13-08.20.91.00.30.421.1%0.0%0.8100.0%14.3%
20Chancellor PerkinsGFr6'2"15-05.91.30.70.40.452.9%66.7%0.4100.0%15.1%
2Nazar MahmoudGJr6'5"2-013.55.02.01.51.037.5%0.0%2.080.0%22.7%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
GramblingLSU N Orleans
Efficiency
101.0
108.2
107.7
110.5
68.4
69.8
—
—
Shooting
48.8%
49.6%
48.9%
50.6%
32.3%
31.8%
72.9%
74.3%
41.1%
46.4%
Ball control & glass
21.2%
20.5%
20.8%
14.9%
30.3%
35.6%
32.5%
34.5%
12.2%
11.1%
13.1%
9.7%
Style
38.1%
33.7%
41.9%
42.7%
16.5%
12.4%
51.6%
52.5%
32.7%
31.8%
Roster
3.60
2.84
6'6.2"
6'5.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Grambling
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

LSU N Orleans
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.