CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLeede Arena, Hanover, NH

Holy Cross

Efficiency #325

2025-26: 11-22 · 6-14 conf

Dartmouth

Efficiency #254

2025-26: 11-16 · 5-9 conf

Wed, Nov 25 · 5:00 PM ET

70.5

win 27%

Projected

77.8

win 73%

No line posted yet.

Model: DART −7.3 · total 148.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Dartmouth 69.7, Holy Cross 67.1 → 68.4 possessions

+0.2

Dartmouth offense vs Holy Cross defense

+1.6

Holy Cross offense vs Dartmouth defense

−1.8

Projected total

148.2

Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Dartmouth offense vs Holy Cross defense

+1.6

Holy Cross offense vs Dartmouth defense

+1.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Dartmouth by 7.3

7.3

Holy Cross side ◂▸ Dartmouth side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Dartmouth.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Dartmouth is the faster team (69.2, #130 of 365) and Holy Cross the slower (65.8, #302). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.2

model

Projected team totals

70.5 / 77.8

Holy Cross / Dartmouth

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#280

Holy Cross

69.7#74

Dartmouth

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageDartmouth

Where Dartmouth struggles: the offensive glass

Dartmouth rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#346); Holy Cross lets opponents grab 27.0% of their own misses (#37). Expect about 24.1%, 6.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageHoly Cross

Where Holy Cross struggles: the offensive glass

Holy Cross rebounds 21.9% of its own misses (#356); Dartmouth lets opponents grab 29.7% of their own misses (#148). Expect about 24.1%, 6.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversHoly Cross

Holy Cross protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Holy Cross's offense.

TurnoversDartmouth

Dartmouth protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.6% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Dartmouth's offense.

ClashDartmouth

Style clash: paint scoring

Dartmouth gets only 34.2% of its points in the paint; Holy Cross gives up 47.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Holy Cross has the ball

OffenseDartmouth allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #248

52.7% #254

-0.2 pt/100

15.3% #86

13.8% #340

+3.4 pt/100

21.9% #356

29.7% #148

-3.8 pt/100

31.5% #268

30.7% #80

-0.5 pt/100

77.2% #29

—

+0.4 pt/100

Holy Cross net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100

Dartmouth has the ball

OffenseHoly Cross allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #156

54.8% #324

+2.9 pt/100

17.6% #247

14.1% #332

+1.5 pt/100

23.7% #346

27.0% #37

-3.8 pt/100

38.0% #103

27.6% #30

-0.4 pt/100

74.2% #119

—

+0.2 pt/100

Dartmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Crossoffense vsDartmouthdefense

Share of shots by zone

Holy Cross shoots

33.1

8.5

22.4

36.0

Dartmouth allows

44.0

4.8

11.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#310	58.3%#156	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#49	44.8%#291	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.0%#7	32.9%#27	38.0%
Three	32.5%#252	34.6%#227	33.7%

Dartmouthoffense vsHoly Crossdefense

Share of shots by zone

Dartmouth shoots

34.0

5.1

12.2

48.6

Holy Cross allows

41.5

6.4

13.3

38.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.0%#274	63.4%#333	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#312	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#119	43.3%#332	38.0%
Three	36.1%#51	34.0%#181	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Cross

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#356

Def reb %

73.0%

#37

Turnover %

15.3%

#86

Forced TO %

14.1%

#332

FT rate

31.5%

#268

FT allowed

27.6%

#30

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Dartmouth

−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#285 of 365

Off reb %

23.7%

#346

Def reb %

70.3%

#148

Turnover %

17.6%

#247

Forced TO %

13.8%

#340

FT rate

38.0%

#103

FT allowed

30.7%

#80

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Holy Cross has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#248 of 365) to Dartmouth’s −2.5 (#285).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Dartmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Kareem Thomas	G	So	6'5"	26-25	29.2	15.9	3.0	1.5	2.3	53.5%	44.7%	4.0	79.5%	30.6%
30	Connor Amundsen	PG	So	5'11"	26-25	29.1	9.5	2.0	3.7	1.1	48.0%	33.3%	4.5	74.6%	20.2%
21	Brandon Mitchell-Day	F	Sr	6'8"	27-27	28.0	12.1	9.0	2.3	2.6	53.7%	35.8%	2.5	75.0%	27.0%
22	Jayden Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	27.3	11.8	3.9	1.1	1.9	54.0%	35.6%	6.9	84.8%	25.9%
33	Jackson Munro	F	Sr	6'8"	27-27	24.7	7.8	4.2	2.0	0.9	59.3%	37.3%	3.1	80.6%	16.7%
5	Cameron McNamee	G	So	6'6"	27-1	20.3	6.0	3.6	0.7	0.8	53.8%	38.1%	3.1	66.0%	17.3%
11	Cam Hiatt	G	Fr	6'4"	23-1	17.3	3.7	1.8	1.2	0.9	44.0%	31.7%	2.6	84.6%	15.7%
23	Nikola Abusara	G	Jr	6'5"	23-0	17.2	5.4	2.4	1.4	0.9	45.0%	17.6%	0.7	73.9%	20.4%
0	Ben Brown	G	Jr	6'2"	16-2	9.3	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	50.0%	34.5%	1.8	—	14.7%
10	Anton Strelnikov	C	Fr	6'8"	18-0	5.8	4.1	1.2	0.2	0.3	66.3%	50.0%	0.1	53.3%	33.7%
7	Patrick Tivnan Jr.	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.4	1.0	1.4	0.4	0.2	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	14.3%	10.2%
44	Shanon Simango	F	So	6'8"	10-0	4.5	3.0	1.6	0.1	0.2	66.7%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	31.1%
50	Tyler Garrett	F	Fr	6'10"	8-0	5.3	2.5	2.8	0.5	0.4	59.4%	33.3%	1.1	50.0%	26.3%
3	Khai Lockwood	G	So	6'1"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	9.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Holy Cross

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover 0.0

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 66–69	+5.5	W+2.5	142.5	U135	99.1	103.6	66.6
Mar 3	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 82–77	+4.5	W+9.5	141.5	O159	121.4	114.0	67.5
Feb 28	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 62–76	−1.0	L−15.0	151.0	U138	97.9	120.0	63.3
Feb 25	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 63–78	+8.5	L−6.5	142.0	U141	99.0	122.5	63.7
Feb 22	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 72–63	+2.5	W+11.5	141.5	U135	109.4	95.7	65.8
Feb 18	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 83–86	−2.0	L−5.0	139.5	O169	116.1	120.3	71.5
Feb 15	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	L 73–83	+4.5	L−5.5	145.5	O156	112.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 11	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 70–74	+8.0	W+4.0	143.0	O144	102.3	108.1	68.5
Feb 7	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 76–67	+1.5	W+10.5	137.0	O143	117.2	103.3	64.8
Feb 2	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 64–72	+2.0	L−6.0	140.0	U136	110.1	123.9	58.1

Dartmouth

Against the spread

Season

11-14

Home

2-9

Road

9-5

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-7

Road

8-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	CornellAdjEM #135	H	L 90–111	+4.5	L−16.5	166.0	O201	115.5	142.5	77.9
Feb 28	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 61–82	+2.0	L−19.0	141.5	O143	94.4	126.9	64.6
Feb 27	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 71–80	+6.5	L−2.5	153.5	U151	102.6	115.6	69.2
Feb 21	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 64–63	+7.0	W+8.0	151.5	U127	95.3	93.8	67.2
Feb 14	BrownAdjEM #275	H	L 76–79	−3.0	L−6.0	139.5	O155	106.4	110.6	71.5
Feb 13	YaleAdjEM #57	H	L 70–83	+10.0	L−3.0	151.5	O153	102.5	121.5	68.3
Feb 7	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 58–71	+1.0	L−12.0	140.5	U129	90.1	110.3	64.4
Jan 31	BrownAdjEM #275	A	W 77–70 OT	+2.0	W+9.0	143.0	O147	103.1	93.7	74.7
Jan 30	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 68–83	+15.5	W+0.5	155.0	U151	105.8	129.1	64.3
Jan 24	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	L 69–79	+2.0	L−8.0	157.0	U148	96.6	110.6	71.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Holy CrossDartmouth

Efficiency

103.6

106.2

113.1

110.8

67.1

69.7

—

Shooting

49.8%

51.8%

50.4%

49.4%

32.5%

36.1%

77.2%

74.2%

31.5%

38.0%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

17.6%

14.1%

13.8%

21.9%

23.7%

27.0%

29.7%

9.7%

10.5%

8.3%

10.4%

Style

37.3%

48.7%

41.4%

34.2%

10.3%

9.5%

44.7%

53.9%

27.9%

32.1%

Roster

2.63

2.80

6'4.3"

6'5.2"

87.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Holy Cross

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.0%

Lost

Aiden Disu 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Dartmouth

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Dec 16	2025-26	Dartmouth 89 – 64 Holy Cross

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.