CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceTruist Arena, Highland Heights, KY

Bellarmine

Efficiency #281

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf

N Kentucky

Efficiency #164

2025-26: 20-14 · 12-11 conf

Wed, Nov 25 · TBD

75.5

win 23%

Projected

84.0

win 77%

No line posted yet.

Model: NKU −8.5 · total 159.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: N Kentucky 70.0, Bellarmine 66.5 → 68.2 possessions

−0.2

N Kentucky offense vs Bellarmine defense

+8.1

Bellarmine offense vs N Kentucky defense

+3.4

Projected total

159.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

N Kentucky offense vs Bellarmine defense

+8.1

Bellarmine offense vs N Kentucky defense

−3.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

N Kentucky by 8.5

8.5

Bellarmine side ◂▸ N Kentucky side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +8.6 against +8.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Kentucky.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Kentucky is the faster team (70.9, #58 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

159.5

model

Projected team totals

75.5 / 84.0

Bellarmine / N Kentucky

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#319

Bellarmine

70.0#49

N Kentucky

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBellarmine

Where Bellarmine scores: shooting

Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); N Kentucky allows 54.2% (#305). Expect about 57.5%, 6.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageN Kentucky

Where N Kentucky scores: shooting

N Kentucky shoots an effective 53.2% (#93); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 56.5%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashN Kentucky

Style match: 3-point volume

N Kentucky takes 44.9% of its shots from three; Bellarmine lets opponents take 50.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 50.9% — both habits push the same way.

GlassBellarmine

Bellarmine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.4% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bellarmine, N Kentucky's defense, Bellarmine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bellarmine at about 40.0% of its shots from three, N Kentucky about 50.9%.

GlassN Kentucky

N Kentucky owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.5% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for N Kentucky's offense.

Bellarmine has the ball

OffenseN Kentucky allowsvs D1 avg

59.4% #3

54.2% #305

+8.9 pt/100

15.5% #104

18.6% #68

-0.5 pt/100

22.4% #354

31.6% #236

-3.0 pt/100

35.0% #178

37.2% #245

+0.2 pt/100

78.8% #7

—

+0.6 pt/100

Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100

N Kentucky has the ball

OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #93

59.4% #365

+7.5 pt/100

16.3% #156

15.0% #287

+1.7 pt/100

32.2% #117

34.2% #320

+1.9 pt/100

35.9% #158

34.3% #157

-0.0 pt/100

72.1% #208

—

-0.0 pt/100

N Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmineoffense vsN Kentuckydefense

Share of shots by zone

Bellarmine shoots

47.4

5.9

40.7

N Kentucky allows

42.4

7.5

12.3

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#9	58.4%#159	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	45.6%#317	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	38.8%#196	38.0%
Three	38.1%#17	36.6%#333	33.7%

N Kentuckyoffense vsBellarminedefense

Share of shots by zone

N Kentucky shoots

41.8

5.2

8.3

44.6

Bellarmine allows

33.1

6.3

10.1

50.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#102	67.7%#363	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.0%#104	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#264	39.5%#221	38.0%
Three	33.6%#193	40.4%#364	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmine

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365

Off reb %

22.4%

#354

Def reb %

65.8%

#320

Turnover %

15.5%

#104

Forced TO %

15.0%

#287

FT rate

35.0%

#178

FT allowed

34.3%

#157

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

N Kentucky

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#116 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#117

Def reb %

68.4%

#236

Turnover %

16.3%

#156

Forced TO %

18.6%

#68

FT rate

35.9%

#158

FT allowed

37.2%

#245

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

N Kentucky has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.6 (#116 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dan Gherezgher	G	Sr	6'4"	34-29	29.5	15.9	3.2	2.7	2.3	53.4%	37.4%	7.7	73.4%	31.4%
8	Donovan Oday	G	Sr	6'2"	34-16	29.0	18.6	3.8	1.9	2.1	56.9%	33.0%	5.3	81.0%	32.7%
11	Tae Dozier	G	Sr	6'5"	34-29	28.9	8.6	5.2	2.3	0.9	58.2%	33.3%	3.5	66.7%	15.9%
6	Ethan Elliott	G	Fr	6'3"	32-31	28.5	5.1	2.8	4.6	1.4	39.2%	25.6%	2.6	48.6%	15.1%
24	Kael Robinson	F	Sr	6'7"	31-29	26.3	14.4	4.5	1.3	1.5	56.0%	39.2%	5.8	82.0%	28.8%
10	Donovan Rakotonanahary	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	12.3	3.0	2.3	0.4	0.3	71.1%	33.3%	0.1	55.6%	11.3%
3	Shawn Nelson	G	Sr	6'3"	27-2	11.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	0.8	38.8%	17.6%	1.3	53.3%	20.9%
4	Bryce Darbyshire	G	So	6'4"	25-0	6.8	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	58.3%	38.9%	0.7	33.3%	13.0%
1	Ryan Tolliver	G	Fr	6'7"	22-1	6.7	1.0	1.7	0.3	0.4	47.1%	0.0%	0.1	77.8%	10.7%
12	Addison Archer	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	6.2	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	43.3%	50.0%	0.1	70.0%	11.4%
26	Mitchel Minor	G	Sr	5'10"	4-0	1.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	116.7%	100.0%	0.3	—	33.1%
22	JJ Apathjang	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Juanma Ruiz	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bellarmine

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

10-3

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-10

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 73–86	+8.0	L−5.0	155.0	O159	115.6	136.2	63.1
Mar 4	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	N	W 82–79	−2.0	W+1.0	146.5	O161	128.6	123.8	63.8
Feb 28	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	W 111–97	+5.5	W+19.5	155.0	O208	134.2	117.3	82.7
Feb 25	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	L 68–73	−3.0	L−8.0	147.0	U141	115.5	124.0	58.8
Feb 21	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	H	L 92–95	+2.0	L−1.0	153.0	O187	144.3	149.0	63.7
Feb 18	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 72–75	+3.5	W+0.5	155.5	U147	112.5	117.2	64.0
Feb 14	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	L 70–90	+9.5	L−10.5	153.0	O160	115.7	148.8	60.5
Feb 11	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	A	L 76–84	+7.5	L−0.5	149.5	O160	115.9	128.0	65.6
Feb 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 81–65	+2.0	W+18.0	152.5	U146	120.3	96.5	67.3
Feb 5	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 92–71	−4.5	W+16.5	148.5	O163	149.6	115.5	61.5

N Kentucky

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

7-7

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

21-10

Home

9-5

Road

10-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +4.9

Over 4 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Wright StAdjEM #119	N	L 90–103	+1.0	L−12.0	158.0	O193	114.7	131.3	78.5
Mar 8	Green BayAdjEM #222	N	W 96–76	−4.0	W+16.0	147.5	O172	145.5	115.2	66.0
Mar 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 85–84	+2.0	W+3.0	162.5	O169	116.5	115.1	73.0
Feb 28	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 91–92	−3.0	L−4.0	152.5	O183	130.0	131.4	70.0
Feb 25	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 81–70	−8.0	W+3.0	165.5	U151	112.2	97.0	72.2
Feb 22	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 58–64	+2.0	L−4.0	152.5	U122	78.4	86.5	73.9
Feb 18	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 87–71	−6.0	W+10.0	154.0	O158	122.1	99.7	71.2
Feb 12	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	W 84–81	−6.0	L−3.0	164.5	O165	118.8	114.6	70.7
Feb 7	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 67–62	−7.0	L−2.0	156.5	U129	107.1	99.1	62.6
Feb 4	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	L 84–87 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	150.5	O171	111.3	115.3	75.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BellarmineN Kentucky

Efficiency

113.2

109.4

119.4

108.8

66.5

70.0

—

Shooting

59.4%

53.2%

61.0%

55.5%

38.1%

33.6%

78.8%

72.1%

35.0%

35.9%

Ball control & glass

15.5%

16.3%

15.0%

18.6%

22.4%

32.2%

34.2%

31.6%

9.1%

8.8%

9.1%

7.7%

Style

41.2%

44.9%

47.0%

44.6%

9.2%

20.1%

53.4%

55.5%

28.4%

27.3%

Roster

2.70

3.18

6'5.8"

6'4.3"

93.7%

85.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bellarmine

Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%

Lost

Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

N Kentucky

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 81.3%

Lost

LJ Wells 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Juanma Ruiz no D1 minutes last season
JJ Apathjang no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	N Kentucky 80 – 76 Bellarmine

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.