CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY
UAlbany
Efficiency #306
2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf
@
Syracuse
Efficiency #85
2025-26: 15-17 · 6-13 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · TBD
67.1
win 14%
Projected
79.5
win 86%
No line posted yet.
Model: SYR −12.4 · total 146.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Syracuse 68.3, UAlbany 67.0 → 67.0 possessions
−3.0
Syracuse offense vs UAlbany defense
+4.9
UAlbany offense vs Syracuse defense
−3.6
Projected total
146.6
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Syracuse offense vs UAlbany defense
+4.9
UAlbany offense vs Syracuse defense
+3.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Syracuse by 12.4
12.4
UAlbany side ◂▸ Syracuse side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.5 against a projected 146.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Syracuse.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Syracuse is the faster team (67.8, #212 of 365) and UAlbany the slower (65.6, #311). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.6
model
Projected team totals
67.1 / 79.5
UAlbany / Syracuse
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#291
UAlbany
68.3#185
Syracuse
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseSyracuse
Syracuse's shot-blocking
Syracuse ranks #7 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.5% of UAlbany's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageSyracuse
Where Syracuse scores: shooting
Syracuse shoots an effective 52.6% (#122); UAlbany allows 53.2% (#275). Expect about 53.0%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUAlbany
Where UAlbany scores: the offensive glass
UAlbany rebounds 32.7% of its own misses (#99); Syracuse lets opponents grab 33.6% of their own misses (#310). Expect about 33.6%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversUAlbany
UAlbany turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against UAlbany's offense.
ClashUAlbany
Style match: paint scoring
UAlbany scores 49.5% of its points in the paint; Syracuse gives up 47.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.1% — both habits push the same way.
ClashSyracuse
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Syracuse (#52 in shot-blocking exposure) against UAlbany (#57 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.4%. Historically UAlbany's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
UAlbany has the ball
OffenseSyracuse allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #182
50.3% #116
-0.7 pt/100
18.5% #300
17.4% #124
-1.7 pt/100
32.7% #99
33.6% #310
+1.9 pt/100
24.9% #364
32.6% #117
-0.8 pt/100
65.9% #354
—
-0.6 pt/100
UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
Syracuse has the ball
OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #122
53.2% #275
+2.5 pt/100
16.0% #136
15.8% #230
+1.3 pt/100
29.2% #228
32.4% #277
+0.1 pt/100
35.1% #171
35.7% #202
+0.1 pt/100
64.8% #361
—
-0.7 pt/100
Syracuse net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUAlbanyoffense vsSyracusedefense
Share of shots by zone
UAlbany shoots
42.2
6.8
13.1
37.9
Syracuse allows
40.2
7.7
16.2
35.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#228 | 60.1%#232 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 49.0%#14 | 38.1%#138 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.9%#146 | 31.0%#9 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.6%#248 | 34.1%#186 | 33.7% |
Syracuseoffense vsUAlbanydefense
Share of shots by zone
Syracuse shoots
39.0
7.0
16.7
37.4
UAlbany allows
40.4
5.2
13.7
40.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.4%#64 | 56.9%#110 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.9%#126 | 41.3%#219 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#233 | 39.6%#225 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.9%#239 | 36.0%#302 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUAlbany
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#99
Def reb %
67.6%
#277
Turnover %
18.5%
#300
Forced TO %
15.8%
#230
FT rate
24.9%
#364
FT allowed
35.7%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Syracuse
+0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#165 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#228
Def reb %
66.4%
#310
Turnover %
16.0%
#136
Forced TO %
17.4%
#124
FT rate
35.1%
#171
FT allowed
32.6%
#117
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Syracuse has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.4 (#165 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UAlbany2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amir Lindsey | G | So | 5'11" | 31-31 | 37.6 | 17.9 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 51.7% | 34.9% | 5.6 | 79.2% | 29.2% | |
| 00 | Okechukwu Okeke | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-25 | 29.8 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 69.3% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 56.5% | 20.5% | |
| 5 | Isaac Abidde | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-29 | 25.3 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 56.1% | 36.2% | 4.0 | 65.0% | 22.9% | |
| 11 | Jaden Kempson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 24-20 | 31.0 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.1% | 29.5% | 3.3 | 62.2% | 24.9% | |
| 14 | Zacharie Matulu | G | So | 6'4" | 21-18 | 28.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57.0% | 36.0% | 4.1 | 75.0% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Miles Rose | G | So | 6'4" | 29-6 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 33.3% | 0.6 | 36.7% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Tarique Foster | F | Jr | 6'8" | 22-8 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 33.3% | 4.1 | 64.7% | 20.3% | |
| 13 | Ma'Kye Taylor | F | So | 6'7" | 31-4 | 13.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 47.5% | 9.1% | 0.7 | 45.0% | 19.0% | |
| 8 | Nas Muhammad | G | Jr | 6'1" | 15-5 | 20.5 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 47.6% | 34.2% | 5.3 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Abdoulaye Fall | G | Jr | 6'10" | 7-7 | 30.7 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 31.8% | 3.1 | 85.7% | 20.8% | |
| 7 | Ife West-Ingram | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 72.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 25 | Yaya Keita | C | Jr | 6'9" | 13-4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 51.6% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 21.7% | |
| 10 | Bautista Giralt | C | So | 7'0" | 15-2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.4% | |
| 33 | Sully Adewale | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Wilkin Paulino | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Will Richardson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Syracuse2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gavin Dotyat Siena | G | Jr | 6'5" | 35-35 | 36.7 | 18.0 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 50.8% | 32.6% | 4.0 | 85.8% | 28.4% | |
| 25 | Aiden Tobiasonat Temple | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 35.4 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 55.1% | 33.8% | 4.3 | 80.0% | 24.3% | |
| 23 | Luke Wilsonat App State | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-30 | 28.2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 64.2% | — | 0.0 | 56.7% | 21.2% | |
| 11 | Francis Folefacat Siena | F | So | 6'7" | 35-26 | 28.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 52.6% | 37.5% | 0.5 | 74.0% | 26.2% | |
| 3 | Garwey Dualat McNeese | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-17 | 26.6 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 50.9% | 31.6% | 2.2 | 76.4% | 21.0% | |
| 7 | Kiyan Anthony | G | So | 6'5" | 29-2 | 18.7 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 44.6% | 25.4% | 2.4 | 62.8% | 28.7% | |
| 1 | Sadiq White Jr. | F | So | 6'8" | 31-11 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 57.1% | 36.8% | 0.6 | 51.3% | 24.4% | |
| 5 | Tasman Goodrickat Siena | F | Sr | 6'10" | 9-9 | 23.4 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 58.3% | 22.4% | |
| 24 | Noah Lobdell | G | Jr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 23.7% | |
| 6 | Calvin Russell III | G | So | 6'5" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 126.8% | |
| 10 | Abdramane Siby | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Ethan Butler | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Iker Martinez | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Mark Morano | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ryan Moesch | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Gavin Doty (from Siena), Garwey Dual (from McNeese), Francis Folefac (from Siena), Tasman Goodrick (from Siena), Aiden Tobiason (from Temple), Luke Wilson (from App State)
UAlbany2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amir Lindsey | G | So | 5'11" | 31-31 | 37.6 | 17.9 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 51.7% | 34.9% | 5.6 | 79.2% | 29.2% | |
| 00 | Okechukwu Okeke | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-25 | 29.8 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 69.3% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 56.5% | 20.5% | |
| 5 | Isaac Abidde | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-29 | 25.3 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 56.1% | 36.2% | 4.0 | 65.0% | 22.9% | |
| 11 | Jaden Kempson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 24-20 | 31.0 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.1% | 29.5% | 3.3 | 62.2% | 24.9% | |
| 14 | Zacharie Matulu | G | So | 6'4" | 21-18 | 28.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57.0% | 36.0% | 4.1 | 75.0% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Miles Rose | G | So | 6'4" | 29-6 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 33.3% | 0.6 | 36.7% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Tarique Foster | F | Jr | 6'8" | 22-8 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 33.3% | 4.1 | 64.7% | 20.3% | |
| 13 | Ma'Kye Taylor | F | So | 6'7" | 31-4 | 13.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 47.5% | 9.1% | 0.7 | 45.0% | 19.0% | |
| 8 | Nas Muhammad | G | Jr | 6'1" | 15-5 | 20.5 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 47.6% | 34.2% | 5.3 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Abdoulaye Fall | G | Jr | 6'10" | 7-7 | 30.7 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 31.8% | 3.1 | 85.7% | 20.8% | |
| 7 | Ife West-Ingram | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 72.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 25 | Yaya Keita | C | Jr | 6'9" | 13-4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 51.6% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 21.7% | |
| 10 | Bautista Giralt | C | So | 7'0" | 15-2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.4% | |
| 33 | Sully Adewale | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Wilkin Paulino | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Will Richardson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UAlbany
Against the spread
Season
11-18
Home
4-5
Road
5-12
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +0.6
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15
Home
4-5
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.8
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | UMass Lowell | A | L 76–81 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 147.5 | O157 | 112.7 | 120.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 3 | Vermont | A | L 56–69 | +9.0 | L−4.0 | 137.0 | U125 | 91.7 | 112.9 | 61.1 |
| Feb 28 | New Hampshire | H | W 84–61 | −3.0 | W+20.0 | 139.0 | O145 | 125.3 | 91.0 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | Maine | H | L 59–70 | −5.5 | L−16.5 | 131.5 | U129 | 98.0 | 116.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 21 | UMBC | A | L 62–66 | +6.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | U128 | 104.1 | 110.9 | 59.5 |
| Feb 19 | NJIT | A | W 81–63 | +4.0 | W+22.0 | 143.0 | O144 | 136.0 | 105.7 | 59.6 |
| Feb 14 | Binghamton | A | W 77–74 | −4.5 | L−1.5 | 137.0 | O151 | 112.4 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | UMass Lowell | H | L 79–89 | −3.5 | L−13.5 | 145.0 | O168 | 113.6 | 128.0 | 69.5 |
| Feb 5 | Bryant | A | W 65–63 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 134.0 | U128 | 107.7 | 104.3 | 60.4 |
| Jan 31 | UMBC | H | L 65–68 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 140.5 | U133 | 102.7 | 107.4 | 63.3 |
Syracuse
Against the spread
Season
14-17-1
Home
8-10
Road
4-4-1
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −4.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Over / under
Season
16-15-1
Home
7-11
Road
7-2
Last 10
4-5-1
avg vs total +5.0
Over in 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 pushOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | SMU | N | L 69–86 | +4.0 | L−13.0 | 155.0 | P155 | 104.4 | 130.2 | 66.1 |
| Mar 7 | Pitt | H | L 69–71 OT | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 142.0 | U140 | 101.0 | 104.0 | 68.3 |
| Mar 3 | Louisville | A | L 62–77 | +15.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | U139 | 91.6 | 113.8 | 67.7 |
| Feb 28 | Wake Forest | A | L 83–88 | +4.0 | L−1.0 | 152.0 | O171 | 127.5 | 135.2 | 65.1 |
| Feb 21 | #16North Carolina | H | L 64–77 | −1.5 | L−14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 94.2 | 113.3 | 67.9 |
| Feb 16 | #3Duke | A | L 64–101 | +20.5 | L−16.5 | 145.0 | O165 | 99.8 | 157.4 | 64.2 |
| Feb 14 | SMU | H | W 79–78 | +2.0 | W+3.0 | 158.0 | U157 | 121.0 | 119.4 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | California | H | W 107–100 2OT | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 149.0 | O207 | 118.3 | 110.6 | 90.4 |
| Feb 7 | #18Virginia | A | L 59–72 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 147.0 | U131 | 95.2 | 116.2 | 62.0 |
| Feb 2 | #14North Carolina | A | L 77–87 | +11.5 | W+1.5 | 158.0 | O164 | 106.5 | 120.3 | 72.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUAlbanySyracuse
Efficiency
105.5
111.0
113.4
106.1
67.0
68.3
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
52.6%
52.8%
54.5%
32.6%
32.9%
65.9%
64.8%
24.9%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
16.0%
15.8%
17.4%
32.7%
29.2%
32.4%
33.6%
10.4%
9.9%
9.4%
7.9%
Style
37.6%
37.2%
49.5%
47.6%
13.7%
15.5%
48.9%
47.1%
26.3%
27.2%
Roster
2.86
2.86
6'5.2"
6'6.6"
—
15.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUAlbany
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Syracuse
Returning minutes: 15.6%Returning production: 13.6%
Lost
- Naithan George 32.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nate Kingz 31.3 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- William Kyle III 28.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- J.J. Starling 27.2 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
- Donnie Freeman 22.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyler Betsey 17.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gavin Doty from Siena · 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg last season
- Aiden Tobiason from Temple · 35.4 mpg, 15.3 ppg last season
- Luke Wilson from App State · 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Francis Folefac from Siena · 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
- Garwey Dual from McNeese · 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg last season
- Tasman Goodrick from Siena · 6.0 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.