CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSuncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FLFort Myers Tip-Off - Palms Division
Northern Iowa
Efficiency #64
2025-26: 23-13 · 15-9 conf
vs
Charlotte
Efficiency #193
2025-26: 17-17 · 11-10 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 11:00 AM ET
69.7
win 68%
Projected
64.3
win 32%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNI −5.3 · total 134.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Charlotte 65.7, Northern Iowa 64.9 → 62.2 possessions
−13.2
Charlotte offense vs Northern Iowa defense
−3.2
Northern Iowa offense vs Charlotte defense
+2.1
Projected total
134.0
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Charlotte offense vs Northern Iowa defense
−3.2
Northern Iowa offense vs Charlotte defense
−2.1
Northern Iowa by 5.3
5.3
Northern Iowa side ◂▸ Charlotte side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 133.9 against a projected 134.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Charlotte.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 62.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Charlotte is the faster team (64.3, #349 of 365) and Northern Iowa the slower (63.4, #362). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
62.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.0
model
Projected team totals
69.7 / 64.3
Northern Iowa / Charlotte
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
64.9#365
Northern Iowa
65.7#351
Charlotte

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Charlotte averages 64.3 possessions per 40, Northern Iowa 63.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNorthern Iowa
Where Northern Iowa scores: ball control
Northern Iowa turns it over on 14.4% of possessions (#41); Charlotte forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#345). Expect about 13.4%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassNorthern Iowa
Northern Iowa gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.4% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Northern Iowa's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Northern Iowa's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Northern Iowa at about 40.0% of its shots from three, Charlotte about 45.7%.
AdvantageCharlotte
Where Charlotte struggles: ball control
Charlotte turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#275); Northern Iowa forces turnovers on 18.0% of opponent possessions (#96). Expect about 18.3%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
Northern Iowa has the ball
OffenseCharlotte allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #73
50.9% #152
+1.8 pt/100
14.4% #41
13.6% #345
+4.1 pt/100
21.8% #357
32.5% #283
-3.0 pt/100
25.6% #362
36.2% #213
-0.5 pt/100
69.2% #294
—
-0.3 pt/100
Northern Iowa net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100
Charlotte has the ball
OffenseNorthern Iowa allowsvs D1 avg
53.4% #86
47.5% #31
-1.0 pt/100
18.1% #275
18.0% #96
-1.9 pt/100
33.9% #71
26.5% #24
+0.3 pt/100
36.4% #140
29.6% #53
-0.3 pt/100
71.6% #219
—
-0.1 pt/100
Charlotte net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Northern Iowaoffense vsCharlottedefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
Charlotte allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9059.9%#22358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.9%#8226.3%#339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4436.1%#11438.0%
Three34.7%#13633.5%#15333.7%
Charlotteoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Charlotte shoots
Northern Iowa allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.0%#11856.5%#9958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.6%#16043.4%#25739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#13138.1%#16438.0%
Three35.2%#10129.1%#333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Northern Iowa
0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#179 of 365
Off reb %
21.8%
#357
Def reb %
73.5%
#24
Turnover %
14.4%
#41
Forced TO %
18.0%
#96
FT rate
25.6%
#362
FT allowed
29.6%
#53
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.8
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Charlotte
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#282 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#71
Def reb %
67.5%
#283
Turnover %
18.1%
#275
Forced TO %
13.6%
#345
FT rate
36.4%
#140
FT allowed
36.2%
#213
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed−0.2

Northern Iowa has more extra scoring chances per game: 0.0 (#179 of 365) to Charlotte’s −2.4 (#282).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Northern Iowa2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
35Leon Bond IIIFJr6'5"36-3632.811.94.71.51.153.9%36.2%3.575.0%22.5%
7Ben SchwiegerFSr6'8"36-2127.89.74.71.91.154.8%37.2%2.668.4%21.9%
13Will HornsethFSo6'8"35-3526.311.14.62.21.560.9%44.4%0.352.7%25.8%
3Max WeisbrodGSr6'4"32-2927.86.42.51.90.955.4%38.3%4.784.0%14.6%
14Tristan SmithFSr6'6"28-2121.29.15.11.91.155.1%27.3%0.467.8%26.5%
22Kyle PockFJr6'6"34-112.73.71.00.20.152.3%34.5%2.575.0%17.4%
11Ismael DioufFSr6'9"35-110.53.01.21.00.850.0%25.5%1.363.6%22.2%
10RJ TaylorGJr5'11"30-011.02.61.01.10.355.2%37.5%1.1100.0%14.9%
2Geon HutchinsGFr6'4"35-07.51.51.20.20.344.0%30.8%0.757.1%16.0%
20Chase CourbatFSr6'10"14-03.61.10.60.10.162.5%—0.0100.0%13.8%
30Hunter JacobsonGJr6'1"11-01.60.30.10.00.025.0%20.0%0.5—21.2%
15Cade CourbatGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Jalen WilsonFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Levi ValdoGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Marino DubravcicFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Redek BornGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Northern IowaCharlotte
Efficiency
108.6
110.8
101.0
111.8
64.9
65.7
—
—
Shooting
53.8%
53.4%
54.9%
53.8%
34.7%
35.2%
69.2%
71.6%
25.6%
36.4%
Ball control & glass
14.4%
18.1%
18.0%
13.6%
21.8%
33.9%
26.5%
32.5%
8.8%
9.9%
8.3%
9.5%
Style
39.1%
45.4%
47.2%
39.1%
8.9%
11.9%
56.6%
51.8%
27.0%
41.9%
Roster
3.24
2.83
6'5.9"
6'6.9"
83.4%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Northern Iowa
Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 81.2%
Lost
  • Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Levi Valdo no D1 minutes last season
  • Marino Dubravcic no D1 minutes last season
  • Redek Born no D1 minutes last season
  • Jalen Wilson no D1 minutes last season
  • Cade Courbat no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Charlotte
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Charlotte's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.