CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA
Longwood
Efficiency #248
2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf
@
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · TBD
66.6
win 20%
Projected
76.4
win 80%
No line posted yet.
Model: GMU −9.8 · total 143.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, Longwood 69.0 → 66.6 possessions
−3.7
George Mason offense vs Longwood defense
+2.2
Longwood offense vs George Mason defense
−3.7
Projected total
143.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
George Mason offense vs Longwood defense
+2.2
Longwood offense vs George Mason defense
+3.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
George Mason by 9.8
9.8
Longwood side ◂▸ George Mason side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.7 against +9.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Longwood is the faster team (69.4, #121 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.0
model
Projected team totals
66.6 / 76.4
Longwood / George Mason
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#120
Longwood
65.9#345
George Mason

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason scores: shooting
George Mason shoots an effective 52.7% (#113); Longwood allows 53.8% (#293). Expect about 53.4%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLongwood
Where Longwood struggles: shooting
Longwood shoots an effective 49.7% (#254); George Mason allows 49.5% (#83). Expect about 49.5%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversGeorge Mason
George Mason turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against George Mason's offense.
DefenseLongwood
Longwood's ball-hawking
Longwood ranks #34 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.9% of George Mason's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashGeorge Mason
Style clash: 3-point volume
George Mason rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Longwood lets opponents take 42.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashLongwood
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Longwood (#40 in free-throw rate) against George Mason (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.4%. Historically George Mason's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
Longwood has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #254
49.5% #83
-2.6 pt/100
19.1% #326
15.4% #256
-0.6 pt/100
34.6% #57
28.3% #79
+1.2 pt/100
41.3% #40
28.9% #43
-0.1 pt/100
74.0% #136
—
+0.1 pt/100
Longwood net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
George Mason has the ball
OffenseLongwood allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
53.8% #293
+3.0 pt/100
15.8% #122
19.8% #29
-1.7 pt/100
31.3% #149
27.7% #58
-0.4 pt/100
41.1% #44
42.1% #326
+0.9 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Longwoodoffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
Longwood shoots
George Mason allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.6%#25260.1%#23458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.0%#7838.8%#15739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.9%#15030.9%#838.0%
Three31.4%#30932.6%#9133.7%
George Masonoffense vsLongwooddefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
Longwood allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.8%#4063.8%#33958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3432.9%#2839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.0%#31339.7%#23138.0%
Three33.3%#21433.8%#17133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Longwood
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#70 of 365
Off reb %
34.6%
#57
Def reb %
72.3%
#58
Turnover %
19.1%
#326
Forced TO %
19.8%
#29
FT rate
41.3%
#40
FT allowed
42.1%
#326
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−1.8
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6

George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to Longwood’s +2.6 (#70).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Longwood2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Jacoi HutchinsonGJr6'3"31-3128.412.33.33.21.846.5%25.4%2.286.2%26.9%
77Elijah TuckerFSr6'8"32-3226.312.56.81.12.759.0%50.0%0.171.2%27.8%
0Johan NziemiFSr6'6"29-2725.910.66.01.82.051.9%34.8%0.873.1%24.5%
3Alphonzo Billups IIIGJr6'7"32-1823.18.12.81.31.254.2%33.6%3.864.3%21.3%
24Jaylen BenardGJr6'2"32-019.87.33.70.91.053.2%31.7%3.856.3%22.7%
23Elijah JonesFSr6'7"27-217.33.93.60.70.749.3%31.3%0.667.3%13.9%
7Elijah KellyGFr6'7"30-1711.22.31.80.40.553.4%34.2%1.358.3%13.5%
11Jaylin PayneFJr6'8"29-18.01.81.70.20.654.8%0.0%0.158.3%15.6%
5KJ McClurgGSr6'3"4-014.32.02.30.50.313.3%0.0%1.550.0%19.0%
8Isaiah KalalaFFr6'9"13-03.81.00.90.10.275.0%—0.058.3%13.0%
30Jerome WilliamsGFr6'0"9-05.11.30.20.60.335.0%20.0%0.683.3%19.1%
10Gerald Burr IIIGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Quadri BashiruFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LongwoodGeorge Mason
Efficiency
105.7
110.8
109.5
105.7
69.0
65.9
—
—
Shooting
49.7%
52.7%
51.1%
54.3%
31.4%
33.3%
74.0%
72.5%
41.3%
41.1%
Ball control & glass
19.1%
15.8%
19.8%
15.4%
34.6%
31.3%
27.7%
28.3%
10.9%
9.6%
9.4%
9.8%
Style
34.8%
35.2%
44.2%
46.4%
11.8%
12.1%
47.1%
49.9%
39.8%
33.9%
Roster
3.25
3.24
6'5.6"
6'6"
76.6%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Longwood
Returning minutes: 76.6%Returning production: 79.5%
Lost
  • Emanuel Richards 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
  • Redd Thompson Jr. 22.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
  • Gerald Burr III no D1 minutes last season
  • Quadri Bashiru no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 77% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.