CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRobins Center, Richmond, VA
Bethune
Efficiency #260
2025-26: 17-15 · 14-5 conf
@
Richmond
Efficiency #150
2025-26: 15-17 · 5-14 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · TBD
71.1
win 24%
Projected
79.4
win 76%
No line posted yet.
Model: RICH −8.3 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Richmond 68.5, Bethune 69.5 → 69.6 possessions
+2.8
Richmond offense vs Bethune defense
+1.9
Bethune offense vs Richmond defense
−2.4
Projected total
150.6
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Richmond offense vs Bethune defense
+1.9
Bethune offense vs Richmond defense
+2.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Richmond by 8.3
8.3
Bethune side ◂▸ Richmond side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.5 against a projected 150.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Richmond.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bethune is the faster team (70.9, #57 of 365) and Richmond the slower (68.5, #172). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.6
model
Projected team totals
71.1 / 79.4
Bethune / Richmond
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#85
Bethune
68.5#169
Richmond

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRichmond
Where Richmond scores: ball control
Richmond turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#33); Bethune forces turnovers on 15.8% of opponent possessions (#229). Expect about 14.8%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBethune
Where Bethune struggles: ball control
Bethune turns it over on 19.2% of possessions (#328); Richmond forces turnovers on 17.7% of opponent possessions (#110). Expect about 18.8%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Richmond) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bethune at about 35.6% of its shots from three, Richmond about 37.9%.
GlassRichmond
Richmond gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Richmond's offense.
ClashBethune
Style clash: 3-point volume
Bethune rarely shoots threes (29.7% of its shots); Richmond lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashRichmond
Style clash: paint scoring
Richmond gets only 34.0% of its points in the paint; Bethune gives up 46.7% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 41.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Bethune has the ball
OffenseRichmond allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #195
52.0% #216
+0.3 pt/100
19.2% #328
17.7% #110
-2.4 pt/100
30.1% #194
31.0% #200
+0.1 pt/100
40.9% #48
35.1% #181
+0.4 pt/100
69.7% #279
—
-0.2 pt/100
Bethune net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100
Richmond has the ball
OffenseBethune allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #115
49.7% #88
+0.0 pt/100
14.3% #33
15.8% #229
+2.5 pt/100
25.0% #340
31.7% #242
-1.9 pt/100
36.9% #133
38.6% #276
+0.4 pt/100
75.2% #76
—
+0.2 pt/100
Richmond net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bethuneoffense vsRichmonddefense
Share of shots by zone
Bethune shoots
Richmond allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9464.5%#34558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.3%#33739.5%#17239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.0%#35339.8%#23638.0%
Three33.0%#23032.7%#10333.7%
Richmondoffense vsBethunedefense
Share of shots by zone
Richmond shoots
Bethune allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.1%#11654.6%#5258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.6%#23035.9%#8939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.7%#8739.8%#23338.0%
Three37.1%#2832.9%#11233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bethune
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#273 of 365
Off reb %
30.1%
#194
Def reb %
68.3%
#242
Turnover %
19.2%
#328
Forced TO %
15.8%
#229
FT rate
40.9%
#48
FT allowed
38.6%
#276
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Richmond
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365
Off reb %
25.0%
#340
Def reb %
69.0%
#200
Turnover %
14.3%
#33
Forced TO %
17.7%
#110
FT rate
36.9%
#133
FT allowed
35.1%
#181
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed0.0

Richmond has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#135 of 365) to Bethune’s −2.0 (#273).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bethune2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jakobi HeadyGSr6'6"31-3135.718.25.01.81.858.0%41.5%3.080.4%25.2%
1Arterio MorrisGJr6'4"30-827.711.53.82.93.044.0%24.7%2.456.6%31.4%
5Quentin HeadyFJr6'6"32-2825.610.33.71.21.350.8%28.6%1.173.4%23.2%
23Daniel RouzanFSr6'8"32-3223.611.84.91.31.552.2%20.0%0.868.4%29.2%
3Seneca WilloughbyGSr6'3"29-2525.54.13.42.71.444.1%34.3%2.473.2%12.4%
4Ariel BlandFSr6'7"32-020.04.85.81.51.363.2%0.0%0.160.6%14.2%
25Tyler AndrewsGSr6'6"25-2120.96.92.60.91.260.9%42.0%3.567.7%18.2%
11Jordan JohnsonGJr6'4"32-716.04.91.30.50.546.2%29.7%3.260.9%20.1%
2Rickey Mitchell Jr.GJr6'4"14-416.74.11.81.41.139.4%30.0%2.966.7%20.4%
13Doctor BradleyGSr6'8"8-422.111.97.52.82.055.2%28.6%0.947.7%33.0%
33David OnaninaCJr6'8"9-07.71.62.20.30.650.0%—0.00.0%17.3%
12Dailon MinorGFr6'1"9-04.91.30.30.41.233.3%40.0%0.666.7%30.6%
22William GonzalezGFr6'6"4-03.02.30.00.30.3150.0%100.0%0.8—17.4%
30Simeon WomackGSr6'2"3-02.01.70.70.00.350.0%0.0%0.360.0%45.7%
24Trayvon BarbaryGSr6'4"2-02.50.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
15Reggie Ward Jr.FSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BethuneRichmond
Efficiency
104.6
110.1
109.7
108.9
69.5
68.5
—
—
Shooting
51.0%
52.7%
51.6%
50.5%
33.0%
37.1%
69.7%
75.2%
40.9%
36.9%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
14.3%
15.8%
17.7%
30.1%
25.0%
31.7%
31.0%
11.6%
7.8%
7.1%
7.7%
Style
29.7%
42.6%
49.1%
34.0%
19.9%
16.1%
50.4%
54.5%
32.9%
43.4%
Roster
3.59
3.10
6'5.5"
6'5.6"
—
72.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bethune
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Richmond
Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 78.0%
Lost
  • Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
  • Jaylen Robinson 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Dylan Homenick no D1 minutes last season
  • Donovan Richardson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.