CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
UConn
Efficiency #10
2025-26: 34-6 · 19-4 conf
vs
Duke
Efficiency #2
2025-26: 35-3 · 20-1 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 7:00 PM ET
67.9
win 35%
Projected
72.4
win 65%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUKE −4.5 · total 140.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Duke 67.2, UConn 66.4 → 65.3 possessions
−6.6
Duke offense vs UConn defense
+1.5
UConn offense vs Duke defense
−3.0
Projected total
140.3
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Duke offense vs UConn defense
+1.5
UConn offense vs Duke defense
+3.0
Duke by 4.5
4.5
UConn side ◂▸ Duke side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.1 against a projected 140.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Duke.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Duke is the faster team (66.8, #250 of 365) and UConn the slower (65.7, #308). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.3
model
Projected team totals
67.9 / 72.4
UConn / Duke
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#324
UConn
67.2#274
Duke
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseUConn
UConn's shot-blocking
UConn ranks #12 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.1% of Duke's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Half-court grind
Duke averages 66.8 possessions per 40, UConn 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageDuke
Where Duke scores: the offensive glass
Duke rebounds 38.4% of its own misses (#4); UConn lets opponents grab 28.8% of their own misses (#99). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashDuke
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Duke (#7 in 2-point shooting) against UConn (#12 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 53.7%. Historically Duke's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Duke's defense, UConn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UConn at about 44.2% of its shots from three, Duke about 40.5%.
ClashUConn
Strength vs strength: eFG%
UConn (#59 in eFG%) against Duke (#13 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 50.4%. Historically UConn's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
UConn has the ball
OffenseDuke allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #59
46.2% #13
-1.2 pt/100
16.4% #163
17.3% #132
-0.2 pt/100
35.7% #30
25.2% #10
+0.7 pt/100
29.9% #313
22.8% #2
-1.2 pt/100
72.4% #192
—
+0.0 pt/100
UConn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
Duke has the ball
OffenseUConn allowsvs D1 avg
56.6% #13
45.7% #7
+0.4 pt/100
15.9% #135
17.8% #107
-0.2 pt/100
38.4% #4
28.8% #99
+2.9 pt/100
38.2% #97
40.7% #308
+0.6 pt/100
72.9% #175
—
+0.0 pt/100
Duke net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUConnoffense vsDukedefense
Share of shots by zone
UConn shoots
37.7
7.8
14.2
40.3
Duke allows
30.5
6.1
18.7
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.1%#36 | 55.4%#75 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.4%#188 | 41.9%#229 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.9%#17 | 34.4%#61 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#150 | 30.6%#27 | 33.7% |
Dukeoffense vsUConndefense
Share of shots by zone
Duke shoots
44.5
4.3
8.0
43.1
UConn allows
40.0
7.0
17.3
35.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.4%#29 | 50.8%#6 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.7%#108 | 45.3%#306 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.1%#34 | 34.8%#70 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#133 | 30.2%#8 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUConn
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#160 of 365
Off reb %
35.7%
#30
Def reb %
71.2%
#99
Turnover %
16.4%
#163
Forced TO %
17.8%
#107
FT rate
29.9%
#313
FT allowed
40.7%
#308
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed−1.4
Duke
+9.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#1 of 365
Off reb %
38.4%
#4
Def reb %
74.8%
#10
Turnover %
15.9%
#135
Forced TO %
17.3%
#132
FT rate
38.2%
#97
FT allowed
22.8%
#2
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.6
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+3.2
Duke has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.3 (#1 of 365) to UConn’s +0.6 (#160).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UConn2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Silas Demary Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 39-38 | 28.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 50.9% | 38.5% | 2.3 | 80.1% | 23.7% | |
| 1 | Solo Ball | G | Jr | 6'4" | 39-39 | 28.3 | 12.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48.4% | 30.0% | 6.6 | 85.2% | 28.7% | |
| 24 | Braylon Mullins | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-29 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52.4% | 33.5% | 6.5 | 88.9% | 26.7% | |
| 23 | Jayden Ross | F | Jr | 6'7" | 38-0 | 17.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 60.7% | 39.1% | 1.7 | 69.2% | 15.0% | |
| 0 | Malachi Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 40-2 | 15.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 46.1% | 44.7% | 1.2 | 53.2% | 17.9% | |
| 12 | Eric Reibe | C | Fr | 7'1" | 40-5 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 67.1% | 30.8% | 0.3 | 52.1% | 22.6% | |
| 3 | Jaylin Stewart | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-12 | 16.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 51.3% | 34.5% | 1.7 | 59.3% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | Dwayne Koroma | F | Sr | 6'8" | 16-0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 56.3% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 17.2% | |
| 9 | Alec Millender | G | Sr | 6'1" | 18-0 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 40.9% | 14.3% | 0.4 | 66.7% | 15.1% | |
| 77 | Uros Paunovic | G | Jr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 7.9% | |
| 10 | Rrezon Elezaj | C | Fr | 7'1" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 23.0% | |
| 13 | Jacob Ross | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Duke2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | John Blackwellat Wisconsin | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.8 | 19.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 53.4% | 38.9% | 7.3 | 85.9% | 30.6% | |
| 7 | Dame Sarr | F | So | 6'8" | 38-30 | 23.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50.7% | 32.3% | 3.5 | 53.2% | 18.8% | |
| 2 | Cayden Boozer | G | So | 6'4" | 38-11 | 22.8 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 54.8% | 30.3% | 1.7 | 81.3% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Caleb Foster | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-30 | 24.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 53.3% | 39.8% | 3.0 | 58.2% | 21.0% | |
| 8 | Drew Scharnowskiat Belmont | F | Sr | 6'10" | 30-24 | 21.7 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 68.3% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 43.6% | 27.3% | |
| 26 | Jacob Theodosiouat Loyola MD | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-18 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 51.7% | 29.6% | 3.6 | 67.2% | 35.2% | |
| 21 | Patrick Ngongba II | C | Jr | 6'11" | 32-28 | 21.9 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 62.8% | 25.8% | 1.0 | 66.4% | 24.8% | |
| 50 | Brock Davis | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Sebastian Wilkins | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Bryson Howard | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Cameron Williams | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Deron Rippey Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | C | Fr | 7'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Maxime Meyer | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Nick Arnold | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: John Blackwell (from Wisconsin), Drew Scharnowski (from Belmont), Jacob Theodosiou (from Loyola MD)
UConn2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Silas Demary Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 39-38 | 28.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 50.9% | 38.5% | 2.3 | 80.1% | 23.7% | |
| 1 | Solo Ball | G | Jr | 6'4" | 39-39 | 28.3 | 12.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48.4% | 30.0% | 6.6 | 85.2% | 28.7% | |
| 24 | Braylon Mullins | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-29 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52.4% | 33.5% | 6.5 | 88.9% | 26.7% | |
| 23 | Jayden Ross | F | Jr | 6'7" | 38-0 | 17.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 60.7% | 39.1% | 1.7 | 69.2% | 15.0% | |
| 0 | Malachi Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 40-2 | 15.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 46.1% | 44.7% | 1.2 | 53.2% | 17.9% | |
| 12 | Eric Reibe | C | Fr | 7'1" | 40-5 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 67.1% | 30.8% | 0.3 | 52.1% | 22.6% | |
| 3 | Jaylin Stewart | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-12 | 16.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 51.3% | 34.5% | 1.7 | 59.3% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | Dwayne Koroma | F | Sr | 6'8" | 16-0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 56.3% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 17.2% | |
| 9 | Alec Millender | G | Sr | 6'1" | 18-0 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 40.9% | 14.3% | 0.4 | 66.7% | 15.1% | |
| 77 | Uros Paunovic | G | Jr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 7.9% | |
| 10 | Rrezon Elezaj | C | Fr | 7'1" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 23.0% | |
| 13 | Jacob Ross | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UConn
Against the spread
Season
17-23
Home
4-13
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover −0.8
Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-22-1
Home
7-9-1
Road
5-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −4.3
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6 | #1Michigan | N | L 63–69 | +6.5 | W+0.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 96.3 | 105.4 | 65.4 |
| Apr 4 | #3Illinois | N | W 71–62 | +1.5 | W+10.5 | 139.0 | U133 | 111.8 | 97.6 | 63.5 |
| Mar 29 | #1Duke | N | W 73–72 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 135.5 | O145 | 116.3 | 114.7 | 62.8 |
| Mar 27 | #3Michigan St | N | W 67–63 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 136.0 | U130 | 105.4 | 99.1 | 63.6 |
| Mar 22 | #7UCLA | N | W 73–57 | −5.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | U130 | 115.9 | 90.5 | 63.0 |
| Mar 20 | #15Furman | N | W 82–71 | −21.0 | L−10.0 | 135.0 | O153 | 125.3 | 108.5 | 65.4 |
| Mar 14 | #13St John's | A | L 52–72 | −2.0 | L−22.0 | 139.5 | U124 | 82.7 | 114.5 | 62.9 |
| Mar 13 | Georgetown | N | W 67–51 | −14.0 | W+2.0 | 139.0 | U118 | 112.6 | 85.7 | 59.5 |
| Mar 12 | Xavier | N | W 93–68 | −16.5 | W+8.5 | 151.0 | O161 | 144.4 | 105.5 | 64.4 |
| Mar 7 | Marquette | A | L 62–68 | −10.0 | L−16.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 92.2 | 101.1 | 67.2 |
Duke
Against the spread
Season
20-18
Home
7-8
Road
8-3
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
13-23-2
Home
4-10-1
Road
4-7
Last 10
5-4-1
avg vs total +1.6
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 1 of 6 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | #2UConn | N | L 72–73 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 135.5 | O145 | 114.7 | 116.3 | 62.8 |
| Mar 27 | #5St John's | N | W 80–75 | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 140.5 | O155 | 124.8 | 117.0 | 64.1 |
| Mar 21 | #9TCU | N | W 81–58 | −12.0 | W+11.0 | 140.5 | U139 | 116.8 | 83.6 | 69.3 |
| Mar 19 | #16Siena | N | W 71–65 | −27.5 | L−21.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 114.7 | 105.0 | 61.9 |
| Mar 14 | #10Virginia | N | W 74–70 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 116.4 | 110.1 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Clemson | N | W 73–61 | −10.5 | W+1.5 | 135.0 | U134 | 115.5 | 96.5 | 63.2 |
| Mar 12 | Florida St | N | W 80–79 | −17.0 | L−16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 119.0 | 117.5 | 67.2 |
| Mar 7 | #17North Carolina | H | W 76–61 | −18.0 | L−3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 116.9 | 93.8 | 65.0 |
| Mar 2 | NC State | A | W 93–64 | −9.0 | W+20.0 | 150.5 | O157 | 144.3 | 99.3 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | #11Virginia | H | W 77–51 | −10.0 | W+16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 126.4 | 83.7 | 60.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUConnDuke
Efficiency
116.7
121.1
98.2
95.8
66.4
67.2
—
—
Shooting
54.3%
56.6%
56.1%
60.2%
34.4%
34.7%
72.4%
72.9%
29.9%
38.2%
Ball control & glass
16.4%
15.9%
17.8%
17.3%
35.7%
38.4%
28.8%
25.2%
8.5%
9.7%
10.1%
9.6%
Style
40.9%
43.5%
45.8%
45.5%
11.7%
12.2%
64.9%
58.8%
27.5%
32.2%
Roster
2.62
3.26
6'5.5"
6'6.5"
70.6%
43.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUConn
Returning minutes: 70.6%Returning production: 63.9%
Lost
- Alex Karaban 34.3 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tarris Reed Jr. 23.9 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacob Furphy 0.9 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Boston College
Added
- Jacob Ross no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 71% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Duke
Returning minutes: 43.2%Returning production: 36.9%
Lost
- Cameron Boozer 33.5 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Evans 28.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Maliq Brown 20.2 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nikolas Khamenia 19.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Darren Harris 9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cameron Sheffield 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- John Blackwell from Wisconsin · 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
- Drew Scharnowski from Belmont · 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
- Jacob Theodosiou from Loyola MD · 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Sebastian Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
- Cameron Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Nick Arnold no D1 minutes last season
Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Mar 29 | 2025-26 | UConn 73 – 72 Duke(N) |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.