CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteOcean Bank Convocation Center, Miami, FL
Long Beach St
Efficiency #267
2025-26: 10-22 · 6-14 conf
vs
Southern Utah
Efficiency #293
2025-26: 10-22 · 6-13 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 1:00 PM ET
77.3
win 54%
Projected
76.2
win 46%
No line posted yet.
Model: LBSU −1.1 · total 153.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Southern Utah 70.3, Long Beach St 69.1 → 71.0 possessions
+5.8
Southern Utah offense vs Long Beach St defense
−0.8
Long Beach St offense vs Southern Utah defense
+0.3
Projected total
153.5
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Southern Utah offense vs Long Beach St defense
−0.8
Long Beach St offense vs Southern Utah defense
−0.3
Long Beach St by 1.1
1.1
Long Beach St side ◂▸ Southern Utah side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Southern Utah.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern Utah is the faster team (70.9, #59 of 365) and Long Beach St the slower (70.8, #60). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.5
model
Projected team totals
77.3 / 76.2
Long Beach St / Southern Utah
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#118
Long Beach St
70.3#34
Southern Utah

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Southern Utah averages 70.9 possessions per 40, Long Beach St 70.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashLong Beach St
Style match: 3-point volume
Long Beach St rarely shoots threes (34.8% of its shots); Southern Utah runs teams off the line (29.5% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.3% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSouthern Utah
Where Southern Utah struggles: ball control
Southern Utah turns it over on 20.3% of possessions (#352); Long Beach St forces turnovers on 17.5% of opponent possessions (#120). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashLong Beach St
Style match: ball movement
Long Beach St creates off the dribble (assists on 46.2% of its baskets); Southern Utah breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.8% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Southern Utah's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Long Beach St at about 29.3% of its shots from three, Southern Utah about 33.6%.
ClashSouthern Utah
Style match: 3-point volume
Southern Utah rarely shoots threes (35.5% of its shots); Long Beach St runs teams off the line (35.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.6% — both habits push the same way.
Long Beach St has the ball
OffenseSouthern Utah allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #207
53.2% #276
+0.9 pt/100
18.0% #270
14.8% #303
+0.7 pt/100
26.2% #315
33.6% #309
-0.8 pt/100
30.7% #287
29.8% #55
-0.6 pt/100
72.5% #185
—
+0.0 pt/100
Long Beach St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100
Southern Utah has the ball
OffenseLong Beach St allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #200
53.7% #290
+1.3 pt/100
20.3% #352
17.5% #120
-3.1 pt/100
28.8% #239
27.8% #60
-1.5 pt/100
33.1% #235
42.3% #327
+0.4 pt/100
71.5% #221
—
-0.1 pt/100
Southern Utah net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Long Beach Stoffense vsSouthern Utahdefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Beach St shoots
Southern Utah allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.6%#2757.5%#13258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.7%#20135.1%#6039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.4%#20942.7%#32438.0%
Three32.7%#24538.0%#35833.7%
Southern Utahoffense vsLong Beach Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern Utah shoots
Long Beach St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.3%#11363.4%#33458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.1%#21940.0%#19139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.0%#29139.7%#23038.0%
Three33.0%#23134.4%#21233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Long Beach St
−3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#318 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#315
Def reb %
72.2%
#60
Turnover %
18.0%
#270
Forced TO %
17.5%
#120
FT rate
30.7%
#287
FT allowed
42.3%
#327
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed−1.8
Southern Utah
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#333 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#239
Def reb %
66.4%
#309
Turnover %
20.3%
#352
Forced TO %
14.8%
#303
FT rate
33.1%
#235
FT allowed
29.8%
#55
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−2.4
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.4

Long Beach St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.6 (#318 of 365) to Southern Utah’s −4.2 (#333).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Long Beach St2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
6Petar MajstorovicFSo6'8"32-3231.114.46.41.82.256.7%28.6%3.177.5%25.7%
11Gavin SykesGFr6'4"28-2632.919.43.01.51.255.6%38.7%6.079.5%29.9%
12Isaiah LewisGJr6'3"32-1322.16.01.92.31.642.2%31.8%2.176.9%20.5%
0Rob Diaz IIIGJr6'2"32-1421.98.13.62.61.050.0%32.9%2.280.7%21.8%
2Shaquil BenderGSr6'2"31-921.810.81.81.42.049.5%36.6%4.375.0%31.8%
4Leopold LevillainFFr6'9"30-2419.34.85.01.01.557.0%—0.061.9%16.0%
33Shay Johnson Jr.FSr6'10"31-816.02.41.90.70.670.8%0.0%0.041.7%8.4%
3Dallas WashingtonFFr6'10"23-111.02.81.50.50.736.6%18.2%1.444.4%21.9%
24Christian JonesGSo6'4"18-110.33.41.40.30.455.0%35.5%1.777.8%18.8%
1Derrick Michael XzavierroFJr6'10"18-08.22.22.70.30.950.0%0.0%0.270.0%19.9%
15JJ ChaikovskyFSo6'7"19-07.40.81.60.30.250.0%0.0%0.1—7.5%
14Immanuel LewisGSr6'3"1-07.04.01.00.00.075.0%100.0%1.050.0%22.1%
8Grant Gondrezick IIGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Jayden AlexanderGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Long Beach StSouthern Utah
Efficiency
105.0
105.5
110.3
112.4
69.1
70.3
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
50.7%
51.5%
51.4%
32.7%
33.0%
72.5%
71.5%
30.7%
33.1%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
20.3%
17.5%
14.8%
26.2%
28.8%
27.8%
33.6%
9.5%
12.4%
7.2%
10.2%
Style
34.8%
35.5%
44.4%
48.0%
11.7%
13.2%
46.2%
49.6%
35.9%
32.1%
Roster
2.37
3.06
6'5.6"
6'6.5"
89.8%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Long Beach St
Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 93.5%
Lost
  • Cole Farrell 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
  • Jayden Alexander no D1 minutes last season
  • Grant Gondrezick II no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Southern Utah
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Southern Utah's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.