CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFirestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA
Bakersfield
Efficiency #339
2025-26: 8-24 · 2-18 conf
@
Pepperdine
Efficiency #307
2025-26: 9-23 · 4-15 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 8:00 PM ET
73.1
win 29%
Projected
79.6
win 71%
No line posted yet.
Model: PEPP −6.5 · total 152.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Pepperdine 69.0, Bakersfield 70.2 → 70.8 possessions
+5.4
Pepperdine offense vs Bakersfield defense
+0.7
Bakersfield offense vs Pepperdine defense
−1.7
Projected total
152.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Pepperdine offense vs Bakersfield defense
+0.7
Bakersfield offense vs Pepperdine defense
+1.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Pepperdine by 6.5
6.5
Bakersfield side ◂▸ Pepperdine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Pepperdine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bakersfield is the faster team (72.6, #14 of 365) and Pepperdine the slower (69.5, #116). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.6
model
Projected team totals
73.1 / 79.6
Bakersfield / Pepperdine
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#39
Bakersfield
69.0#124
Pepperdine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Pepperdine averages 69.5 possessions per 40, Bakersfield 72.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseBakersfield
Bakersfield's shot-blocking
Bakersfield ranks #18 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of Pepperdine's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageBakersfield
Where Bakersfield struggles: shooting
Bakersfield shoots an effective 45.7% (#355); Pepperdine allows 54.2% (#306). Expect about 49.6%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bakersfield) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bakersfield at about 31.6% of its shots from three, Pepperdine about 39.0%.
AdvantagePepperdine
Where Pepperdine struggles: ball control
Pepperdine turns it over on 18.3% of possessions (#289); Bakersfield forces turnovers on 17.9% of opponent possessions (#100). Expect about 18.4%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashBakersfield
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Bakersfield (#27 in free-throw rate) against Pepperdine (#35 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.6%. Historically Pepperdine's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
Bakersfield has the ball
OffensePepperdine allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #355
54.2% #306
-2.5 pt/100
18.9% #316
16.5% #182
-1.3 pt/100
30.4% #181
34.0% #318
+1.1 pt/100
42.2% #27
28.5% #35
-0.1 pt/100
73.8% #142
—
+0.1 pt/100
Bakersfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100
Pepperdine has the ball
OffenseBakersfield allowsvs D1 avg
47.6% #323
54.0% #301
-1.1 pt/100
18.3% #289
17.9% #100
-2.0 pt/100
29.1% #234
35.6% #349
+1.0 pt/100
33.8% #216
42.6% #334
+0.5 pt/100
75.8% #58
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pepperdine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bakersfieldoffense vsPepperdinedefense
Share of shots by zone
Bakersfield shoots
Pepperdine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#28960.5%#25258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.3%#33949.1%#34939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.0%#22239.6%#22438.0%
Three29.0%#35335.5%#27633.7%
Pepperdineoffense vsBakersfielddefense
Share of shots by zone
Pepperdine shoots
Bakersfield allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.0%#29860.1%#22858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.2%#17042.6%#24039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#25240.7%#26938.0%
Three31.4%#31036.0%#30533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bakersfield
−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#277 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#181
Def reb %
64.4%
#349
Turnover %
18.9%
#316
Forced TO %
17.9%
#100
FT rate
42.2%
#27
FT allowed
42.6%
#334
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−1.9
Pepperdine
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#234
Def reb %
66.0%
#318
Turnover %
18.3%
#289
Forced TO %
16.5%
#182
FT rate
33.8%
#216
FT allowed
28.5%
#35
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.7

Pepperdine has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#245 of 365) to Bakersfield’s −2.3 (#277).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bakersfield2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
15Dailin SmithGSr6'6"30-2729.316.52.40.91.641.2%28.0%5.480.6%32.8%
10AJ GeorgeGSr6'5"30-2928.18.23.51.51.741.3%20.8%1.665.0%21.7%
21Ronald JessamyFJr6'8"31-2326.013.56.61.22.852.8%20.0%0.567.6%31.0%
1Tom MarkFSr6'7"27-1925.06.74.21.01.051.7%32.7%2.068.1%15.4%
12Kadar WallerGSr5'11"32-620.53.31.82.81.338.5%29.6%0.873.8%13.0%
0CJ HardyGSr6'3"22-2128.112.43.82.92.450.0%31.3%3.083.2%25.7%
2Mike PriceGFr6'3"31-518.26.51.10.81.243.9%32.3%3.170.4%24.8%
7Pierre Geneste Jr.CSr6'11"26-1918.93.07.00.30.861.1%—0.036.7%10.3%
25Jaden AlexanderGJr6'4"20-1019.69.33.40.51.447.0%35.3%1.782.9%27.6%
5Bentley WallerGFr6'4"22-111.14.01.30.61.049.3%36.8%0.987.5%22.5%
3Dylan PurnellGSo6'5"16-08.62.61.90.30.639.3%10.0%0.642.9%23.4%
4Caleb McCartyFSr6'8"6-08.73.22.50.30.261.5%—0.075.0%16.6%
40TJ James Jr.GFr6'1"10-04.01.00.60.20.031.3%15.4%1.30.0%21.2%
11Colin DarbyFSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BakersfieldPepperdine
Efficiency
102.7
103.9
114.0
111.8
70.2
69.0
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
47.6%
46.6%
48.0%
29.0%
31.4%
73.8%
75.8%
42.2%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
18.3%
17.9%
16.5%
30.4%
29.1%
35.6%
34.0%
10.4%
10.9%
9.1%
10.7%
Style
28.9%
39.2%
41.8%
40.5%
16.0%
9.4%
44.6%
56.2%
32.3%
27.8%
Roster
3.37
2.21
6'5.1"
6'6.3"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bakersfield
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Pepperdine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Dec 132025-26Pepperdine 70 – 62 Bakersfield

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.