CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteResorts World Event Center, Las Vegas, NV
Pacific
Efficiency #126
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
vs
Jax State
Efficiency #215
2025-26: 15-17 · 10-11 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · TBD
70.2
win 59%
Projected
67.5
win 41%
No line posted yet.
Model: PAC −2.8 · total 137.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Jax State 66.8, Pacific 66.4 → 64.9 possessions
−7.4
Jax State offense vs Pacific defense
−3.0
Pacific offense vs Jax State defense
−0.2
Projected total
137.7
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Jax State offense vs Pacific defense
−3.0
Pacific offense vs Jax State defense
+0.2
Pacific by 2.8
2.8
Pacific side ◂▸ Jax State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 137.6 against a projected 137.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Jax State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Pacific is the faster team (65.8, #300 of 365) and Jax State the slower (65.7, #306). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.7
model
Projected team totals
70.2 / 67.5
Pacific / Jax State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#325
Pacific
66.8#300
Jax State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Jax State averages 65.7 possessions per 40, Pacific 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageJax State
Where Jax State struggles: shooting
Jax State shoots an effective 49.7% (#253); Pacific allows 50.0% (#101). Expect about 49.7%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePacific
Where Pacific struggles: ball control
Pacific turns it over on 20.1% of possessions (#349); Jax State forces turnovers on 16.2% of opponent possessions (#207). Expect about 18.3%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassJax State
Jax State gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.4% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Jax State's offense.
ClashPacific
Style clash: 3-point volume
Pacific rarely shoots threes (35.3% of its shots); Jax State lets opponents take 42.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Pacific has the ball
OffenseJax State allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #140
49.6% #85
-0.5 pt/100
20.1% #349
16.2% #207
-1.9 pt/100
35.3% #42
28.0% #67
+1.4 pt/100
30.5% #297
38.7% #278
-0.0 pt/100
75.5% #66
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pacific net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100
Jax State has the ball
OffensePacific allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #253
50.0% #101
-2.2 pt/100
17.0% #205
15.1% #273
+1.1 pt/100
29.8% #208
25.0% #8
-1.9 pt/100
43.1% #21
36.3% #219
+0.6 pt/100
68.4% #314
—
-0.3 pt/100
Jax State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Pacificoffense vsJax Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Pacific shoots
Jax State allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.6%#31155.4%#7458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.4%#5744.0%#26839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.9%#1634.1%#5338.0%
Three35.8%#6533.3%#14133.7%
Jax Stateoffense vsPacificdefense
Share of shots by zone
Jax State shoots
Pacific allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.0%#34957.0%#11358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.9%#15039.7%#18339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.5%#35737.7%#15138.0%
Three35.7%#7634.7%#23333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Pacific
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#252 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#42
Def reb %
75.0%
#8
Turnover %
20.1%
#349
Forced TO %
15.1%
#273
FT rate
30.5%
#297
FT allowed
36.3%
#219
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−2.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Jax State
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#125 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#208
Def reb %
72.0%
#67
Turnover %
17.0%
#205
Forced TO %
16.2%
#207
FT rate
43.1%
#21
FT allowed
38.7%
#278
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed−0.9

Jax State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#125 of 365) to Pacific’s −1.4 (#252).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Pacific2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10TJ WainwrightGSr6'3"33-3331.913.03.81.41.552.0%38.8%5.592.0%24.9%
6Jaden ClaytonGSr6'1"33-2430.47.93.36.42.544.0%30.2%3.575.0%21.7%
1Justin RochelinGSr6'5"33-3327.29.16.41.01.852.3%38.1%2.579.8%22.0%
14Isaac JackFSr6'11"33-3321.69.15.30.50.867.4%—0.059.7%21.5%
9Kajus KublickasGJr6'2"33-920.25.62.53.01.942.1%27.8%2.471.4%23.7%
15Jaion PittFFr6'7"33-017.34.73.70.50.368.8%66.7%0.263.4%13.0%
24KC IbekweCSr6'11"32-09.33.81.60.30.859.6%—0.029.6%26.9%
0Alexis MarmolejosGSr6'2"24-09.53.81.60.30.545.1%30.2%2.284.2%26.8%
11Emmanuel ManyuonGJr6'2"13-03.20.50.40.20.258.3%33.3%0.2—11.6%
17Eyal HarelGFr6'7"3-03.32.00.30.00.0150.0%100.0%0.7—11.4%
3Carlsheon YoungGFr6'4"1-03.00.00.00.02.0——0.0—40.8%
13Kellen HamptonFFr6'7"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
7Augustas BrazdeikisFJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Clayton MpianaFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Dominic CapriottiGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Kris KeinysFJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Noah BuduGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PacificJax State
Efficiency
108.8
106.0
106.4
107.8
66.4
66.8
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
49.7%
51.3%
47.4%
35.8%
35.7%
75.5%
68.4%
30.5%
43.1%
Ball control & glass
20.1%
17.0%
15.1%
16.2%
35.3%
29.8%
25.0%
28.0%
9.9%
9.0%
10.6%
9.7%
Style
35.3%
38.1%
45.9%
42.3%
9.7%
12.3%
58.0%
49.6%
27.8%
35.3%
Roster
3.55
3.06
6'4.7"
6'5.2"
82.8%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Pacific
Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 78.1%
Lost
  • Elias Ralph 34.6 mpg, 16.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kris Keinys no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Budu no D1 minutes last season
  • Dominic Capriotti no D1 minutes last season
  • Augustas Brazdeikis no D1 minutes last season
  • Clayton Mpiana no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Jax State
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jax State's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.