CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series

USC

Efficiency #97

2025-26: 18-14 · 7-14 conf

South Carolina

Efficiency #123

2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf

Wed, Nov 25 · 4:30 PM ET

75.8

win 54%

Projected

74.6

win 46%

No line posted yet.

Model: USC −1.2 · total 150.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Carolina 67.6, USC 70.5 → 69.8 possessions

+3.3

South Carolina offense vs USC defense

−1.2

USC offense vs South Carolina defense

0.0

Projected total

150.4

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Carolina offense vs USC defense

−1.2

USC offense vs South Carolina defense

0.0

USC by 1.2

1.2

USC side ◂▸ South Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.3 against a projected 150.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, USC is the faster team (71.0, #53 of 365) and South Carolina the slower (68.0, #202). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.4

model

Projected team totals

75.8 / 74.6

USC / South Carolina

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.5#25

USC

67.6#241

South Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

DefenseUSC

USC's shot-blocking

USC ranks #9 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.8% of South Carolina's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashUSC

Style match: 3-point volume

USC rarely shoots threes (34.1% of its shots); South Carolina runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.8% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina, USC's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect USC at about 32.8% of its shots from three, South Carolina about 44.0%.

AdvantageSouth Carolina

Where South Carolina scores: ball control

South Carolina turns it over on 14.5% of possessions (#42); USC forces turnovers on 16.3% of opponent possessions (#198). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashUSC

Style match: ball movement

USC assists on 56.5% of its made baskets; South Carolina allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 58.2% — both habits push the same way.

USC has the ball

OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #225

51.6% #188

-0.6 pt/100

17.4% #228

14.6% #314

+1.3 pt/100

32.4% #113

32.1% #263

+1.3 pt/100

44.2% #8

34.0% #151

+0.5 pt/100

72.6% #182

—

+0.0 pt/100

USC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100

South Carolina has the ball

OffenseUSC allowsvs D1 avg

50.3% #226

49.7% #89

-1.9 pt/100

14.5% #42

16.3% #198

+2.0 pt/100

27.2% #289

32.2% #269

-0.8 pt/100

36.7% #137

33.4% #139

-0.0 pt/100

78.1% #14

—

+0.5 pt/100

South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

USCoffense vsSouth Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

USC shoots

38.6

6.4

21.2

33.8

South Carolina allows

38.5

7.1

18.2

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#128	63.9%#340	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#184	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.3%#179	40.5%#258	38.0%
Three	31.7%#299	31.8%#56	33.7%

South Carolinaoffense vsUSCdefense

Share of shots by zone

South Carolina shoots

33.0

7.1

15.4

44.5

USC allows

37.0

4.7

18.0

40.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#130	56.0%#87	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.8%#200	44.6%#283	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.4%#32	44.3%#342	38.0%
Three	31.1%#317	30.9%#31	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

USC

+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#82 of 365

Off reb %

32.4%

#113

Def reb %

67.8%

#269

Turnover %

17.4%

#228

Forced TO %

16.3%

#198

FT rate

44.2%

FT allowed

33.4%

#139

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.4

Foul shots allowed+0.5

South Carolina

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365

Off reb %

27.2%

#289

Def reb %

67.9%

#263

Turnover %

14.5%

#42

Forced TO %

14.6%

#314

FT rate

36.7%

#137

FT allowed

34.0%

#151

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.3

USC has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#82 of 365) to South Carolina’s −0.6 (#203).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

USC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	Jacob Cofie	F	So	6'10"	32-32	30.4	9.9	6.8	1.9	1.7	55.3%	31.8%	2.1	60.5%	19.5%
13	Kam Woods	G	Sr	6'2"	20-17	31.4	8.8	4.3	4.1	2.0	44.1%	16.7%	2.1	61.1%	20.9%
7	Jordan Marsh	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	18.3	7.3	2.0	1.9	1.1	49.7%	35.7%	3.0	77.8%	23.3%
8	Jerry Easter II	G	Fr	6'5"	28-7	17.9	4.6	3.1	1.1	0.9	45.5%	23.5%	0.6	74.4%	17.0%
5	Terrance Williams II	F	Sr	6'7"	30-13	13.7	2.3	2.0	0.6	0.1	36.7%	27.6%	1.0	64.1%	11.2%
0	Alijah Arenas	G	Fr	6'6"	14-13	27.6	14.1	2.9	2.1	2.3	37.6%	21.3%	4.4	79.2%	37.1%
33	Jaden Brownell	F	Sr	6'10"	30-0	11.6	5.1	1.9	0.4	0.6	48.2%	29.4%	2.8	83.3%	26.9%
9	Ryan Cornish	G	Sr	6'5"	25-11	11.0	2.4	0.7	0.8	0.4	48.0%	32.4%	1.4	93.3%	13.7%
1	Rodney Rice	G	Jr	6'5"	6-6	34.0	20.3	3.3	6.0	1.8	48.9%	38.5%	6.5	74.4%	32.8%
3	Amarion Dickerson	G	Sr	6'7"	8-1	21.6	4.6	3.4	1.1	1.0	59.1%	44.4%	1.1	61.1%	12.3%
12	EJ Neal Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	8-0	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.3	37.5%	0.0%	0.6	—	28.3%
21	Jonah Goorin	G	So	6'4"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	26.4%
18	Patrick O'Brien	G	Fr	6'5"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
22	Brit Burden	F	So	6'7"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	17.4%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Eli Ellis	G	Fr	6'0"	28-0	26.9	8.6	2.8	2.0	1.0	44.2%	28.0%	2.9	87.9%	20.8%
10	Myles Stute	G	Sr	6'7"	27-24	23.3	5.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	47.6%	30.9%	4.1	64.0%	16.8%
31	Elijah Strong	F	Jr	6'8"	32-18	17.1	10.0	2.3	0.9	0.9	49.3%	27.8%	3.0	75.9%	36.1%
13	Grant Polk	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.9	3.8	1.1	0.1	0.2	51.5%	32.9%	2.6	90.9%	17.1%
6	EJ Walker	F	Fr	6'7"	22-6	15.9	2.9	2.7	0.4	0.8	49.1%	24.1%	1.3	47.1%	13.9%
24	Nordin Kapic	F	Sr	6'8"	22-4	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.4	0.4	52.1%	34.0%	2.1	69.2%	21.7%
20	Hayden Assemian	F	Fr	6'6"	24-4	9.8	2.4	2.5	0.3	0.5	69.4%	—	0.0	57.1%	13.7%
0	Jordan Butler	F	Jr	7'0"	25-4	8.9	2.8	1.8	0.2	0.2	53.4%	25.0%	0.8	77.4%	17.1%
14	Eli Sparkman	G	Sr	6'0"	12-0	3.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	0.6	—	9.7%
7	Abu Yarmah	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Cam Scott	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

USC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	Jacob Cofie	F	So	6'10"	32-32	30.4	9.9	6.8	1.9	1.7	55.3%	31.8%	2.1	60.5%	19.5%
13	Kam Woods	G	Sr	6'2"	20-17	31.4	8.8	4.3	4.1	2.0	44.1%	16.7%	2.1	61.1%	20.9%
7	Jordan Marsh	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	18.3	7.3	2.0	1.9	1.1	49.7%	35.7%	3.0	77.8%	23.3%
8	Jerry Easter II	G	Fr	6'5"	28-7	17.9	4.6	3.1	1.1	0.9	45.5%	23.5%	0.6	74.4%	17.0%
5	Terrance Williams II	F	Sr	6'7"	30-13	13.7	2.3	2.0	0.6	0.1	36.7%	27.6%	1.0	64.1%	11.2%
0	Alijah Arenas	G	Fr	6'6"	14-13	27.6	14.1	2.9	2.1	2.3	37.6%	21.3%	4.4	79.2%	37.1%
33	Jaden Brownell	F	Sr	6'10"	30-0	11.6	5.1	1.9	0.4	0.6	48.2%	29.4%	2.8	83.3%	26.9%
9	Ryan Cornish	G	Sr	6'5"	25-11	11.0	2.4	0.7	0.8	0.4	48.0%	32.4%	1.4	93.3%	13.7%
1	Rodney Rice	G	Jr	6'5"	6-6	34.0	20.3	3.3	6.0	1.8	48.9%	38.5%	6.5	74.4%	32.8%
3	Amarion Dickerson	G	Sr	6'7"	8-1	21.6	4.6	3.4	1.1	1.0	59.1%	44.4%	1.1	61.1%	12.3%
12	EJ Neal Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	8-0	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.3	37.5%	0.0%	0.6	—	28.3%
21	Jonah Goorin	G	So	6'4"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	26.4%
18	Patrick O'Brien	G	Fr	6'5"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
22	Brit Burden	F	So	6'7"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	17.4%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

USC

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

6-9

Road

5-6

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 7 straightCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13-1

Home

10-5

Road

5-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +4.2

Over 4 straightOver in 7 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	WashingtonAdjEM #59	N	L 79–83 OT	+3.5	L−0.5	153.0	O162	97.8	102.7	80.8
Mar 7	UCLAAdjEM #37	H	L 68–89	+5.0	L−16.0	151.0	O157	108.7	142.2	62.6
Mar 4	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	L 72–91	+5.5	L−13.5	151.0	O163	94.7	119.7	76.0
Feb 28	#12NebraskaAdjEM #17	H	L 67–82	+5.0	L−10.0	148.5	O149	97.3	119.1	68.8
Feb 24	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 62–81	+7.0	L−12.0	150.5	U143	94.5	123.4	65.6
Feb 21	OregonAdjEM #143	H	L 70–71	−5.0	L−6.0	149.5	U141	99.8	101.3	70.1
Feb 18	#10IllinoisAdjEM #4	H	L 65–101	+9.0	L−27.0	152.5	O166	91.0	141.4	71.4
Feb 11	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	A	L 82–89	+8.0	W+1.0	152.5	O171	111.9	121.5	73.3
Feb 8	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	W 77–75	−3.0	L−1.0	157.0	U152	106.4	103.7	72.3
Feb 3	IndianaAdjEM #45	H	W 81–75	+1.5	W+7.5	152.5	O156	111.5	103.2	72.7

South Carolina

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-12-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-16-1

Home

9-10

Road

3-6-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 1 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 74–86	+8.0	L−4.0	149.0	O160	116.1	134.9	63.8
Mar 7	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 64–61	+7.0	W+10.0	147.0	U125	96.5	92.0	66.3
Mar 3	#23TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	L 59–78	+11.0	L−8.0	142.0	U137	95.8	126.6	61.6
Feb 28	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 68–87	+12.5	L−6.5	159.0	U155	107.0	136.9	63.5
Feb 24	KentuckyAdjEM #27	H	L 63–72	+7.5	L−1.5	151.0	U135	87.7	100.3	71.8
Feb 21	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 97–89	+1.0	W+9.0	152.0	O186	133.7	122.7	72.5
Feb 17	#12FloridaAdjEM #5	A	L 62–76	+23.0	W+9.0	155.0	U138	92.5	113.4	67.0
Feb 14	AlabamaAdjEM #18	A	L 75–89	+18.0	W+4.0	169.5	U164	99.1	117.6	75.7
Feb 7	MissouriAdjEM #67	H	L 59–78	+3.0	L−16.0	147.0	U137	90.0	119.0	65.5
Feb 3	TexasAdjEM #38	A	L 75–84	+13.5	W+4.5	149.5	O159	109.9	123.1	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

USCSouth Carolina

Efficiency

109.7

105.5

107.3

70.5

67.6

—

Shooting

50.4%

50.3%

51.8%

53.2%

31.7%

31.1%

72.6%

78.1%

44.2%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

17.4%

14.5%

16.3%

14.6%

32.4%

27.2%

32.2%

32.1%

10.2%

9.3%

8.3%

11.1%

Style

34.1%

44.4%

42.7%

39.4%

12.8%

8.7%

56.5%

52.9%

30.8%

35.7%

Roster

2.79

2.25

6'5.7"

68.1%

52.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

USC

Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.4%

Lost

Ezra Ausar 29.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chad Baker-Mazara 24.1 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Gabe Dynes 11.2 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

South Carolina

Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%

Lost

Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.