CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteImperial Arena, Nassau, BahamasBattle 4 Atlantis

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Penn State

Efficiency #194

2025-26: 12-20 · 3-18 conf

Wed, Nov 25 · 5:00 PM ET

77.3

win 55%

Projected

75.8

win 45%

No line posted yet.

Model: MEM −1.5 · total 153.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Penn State 68.4, Memphis 70.1 → 70.1 possessions

+4.0

Penn State offense vs Memphis defense

−0.3

Memphis offense vs Penn State defense

+1.2

Projected total

153.2

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Penn State offense vs Memphis defense

−0.3

Memphis offense vs Penn State defense

−1.2

Memphis by 1.5

1.5

Memphis side ◂▸ Penn State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.1 against a projected 153.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Penn State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Penn State the slower (67.5, #224). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.2

model

Projected team totals

77.3 / 75.8

Memphis / Penn State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#44

Memphis

68.4#175

Penn State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis scores: shooting

Memphis shoots an effective 48.7% (#298); Penn State allows 58.4% (#363). Expect about 53.4%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's shot-blocking

Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Penn State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassMemphis

Memphis owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.2% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Memphis's offense.

TurnoversMemphis

Memphis turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Memphis's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Penn State's defense, Memphis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Memphis at about 37.4% of its shots from three, Penn State about 40.8%.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's ball-hawking

Memphis ranks #29 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.6% of Penn State's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Memphis has the ball

OffensePenn State allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

58.4% #363

+3.1 pt/100

18.9% #317

17.7% #113

-2.2 pt/100

35.3% #41

31.1% #210

+2.3 pt/100

34.7% #190

27.5% #28

-0.6 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Penn State has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

53.0% #102

48.7% #55

-0.4 pt/100

15.6% #108

18.5% #70

-0.6 pt/100

25.9% #325

35.6% #350

-0.4 pt/100

33.8% #219

42.4% #329

+0.5 pt/100

75.0% #83

—

+0.2 pt/100

Penn State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Memphisoffense vsPenn Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

Penn State allows

39.1

5.8

12.5

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	67.3%#362	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	35.2%#63	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	43.7%#338	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	38.8%#363	33.7%

Penn Stateoffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Penn State shoots

38.7

5.6

17.9

37.7

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.1%#69	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#111	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.8%#42	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	32.4%#263	30.5%#22	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Penn State

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#118 of 365

Off reb %

25.9%

#325

Def reb %

68.9%

#210

Turnover %

15.6%

#108

Forced TO %

17.7%

#113

FT rate

33.8%

#219

FT allowed

27.5%

#28

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Penn State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#118 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Penn State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Josh Reed	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	28.2	11.5	4.1	1.0	1.1	55.3%	36.8%	2.7	87.2%	22.0%
4	Kayden Mingo	G	Fr	6'3"	28-28	32.1	13.7	3.5	4.3	2.0	51.2%	24.4%	3.1	70.5%	26.9%
3	Ivan Juric	F	Fr	7'0"	30-26	26.4	10.2	5.3	0.8	1.9	61.6%	28.3%	1.8	66.1%	22.5%
7	Dominick Stewart	G	So	6'5"	32-24	22.5	6.6	2.2	1.6	0.8	51.5%	34.8%	3.5	79.1%	18.1%
9	Melih Tunca	G	Fr	6'5"	31-12	22.8	7.8	2.0	2.4	1.4	50.3%	31.3%	2.1	77.0%	22.1%
11	Eli Rice	G	So	6'8"	29-18	19.8	6.7	1.7	0.2	0.6	51.6%	39.0%	3.6	77.3%	20.3%
1	Mason Blackwood	F	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.3	2.6	1.8	0.2	0.3	54.5%	22.2%	1.0	77.8%	12.5%
22	Sasa Ciani	F	Jr	6'10"	28-4	10.0	2.1	1.9	0.2	0.4	39.8%	20.0%	0.2	68.2%	16.0%
16	Tibor Mirtic	F	Fr	6'9"	15-1	14.2	3.7	3.3	0.7	0.7	54.3%	33.3%	0.2	30.8%	17.6%
21	Justin Houser	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	6.2	1.4	1.1	0.2	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	62.5%	16.2%
30	Chris Lotito	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.7%
12	Reggie Grodin	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Penn State

Against the spread

Season

12-20

Home

7-10

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-14

Home

9-8

Road

8-3

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.6

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	N	L 66–76	+5.0	L−5.0	144.5	U142	103.9	119.6	63.6
Mar 8	RutgersAdjEM #192	A	L 62–74	+5.0	L−7.0	150.5	U136	89.5	106.8	69.3
Mar 4	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	L 62–94	+7.0	L−25.0	152.0	O156	95.7	145.1	64.8
Feb 28	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 71–69	+9.0	W+11.0	144.0	U140	119.5	116.1	59.4
Feb 21	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 64–87	+17.5	L−5.5	147.5	O151	92.2	125.4	69.4
Feb 18	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	L 72–85	−4.5	L−17.5	149.0	O157	105.6	124.7	68.2
Feb 14	OregonAdjEM #143	A	L 72–83	+6.5	L−4.5	147.0	O155	109.7	126.5	65.6
Feb 11	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	W 63–60	+12.5	W+15.5	153.0	U123	96.3	91.7	65.4
Feb 8	USCAdjEM #97	H	L 75–77	+3.0	W+1.0	157.0	U152	103.7	106.4	72.3
Feb 5	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	A	L 69–110	+26.5	L−14.5	162.0	O179	96.9	154.5	71.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MemphisPenn State

Efficiency

106.9

110.8

105.8

111.8

70.1

68.4

—

Shooting

48.7%

53.0%

49.4%

55.8%

31.6%

32.4%

72.1%

75.0%

34.7%

33.8%

Ball control & glass

18.9%

15.6%

18.5%

17.7%

35.3%

25.9%

35.6%

31.1%

11.3%

8.6%

10.4%

9.8%

Style

33.7%

38.1%

44.9%

46.1%

17.0%

14.8%

49.8%

48.3%

40.2%

33.2%

Roster

3.19

1.82

6'5.6"

6'7.1"

—

86.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Penn State

Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 82.2%

Lost

Freddie Dilione V 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

Reggie Grodin no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.