CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteImperial Arena, Nassau, BahamasBattle 4 Atlantis
Marquette
Efficiency #100
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf
vs
Virginia
Efficiency #15
2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 12:00 PM ET
69.3
win 23%
Projected
77.8
win 77%
No line posted yet.
Model: UVA −8.5 · total 147.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Marquette 69.5 → 68.4 possessions
+0.1
Virginia offense vs Marquette defense
+3.6
Marquette offense vs Virginia defense
−4.9
Projected total
147.1
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia offense vs Marquette defense
+3.6
Marquette offense vs Virginia defense
+4.9
Virginia by 8.5
8.5
Marquette side ◂▸ Virginia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.0 against a projected 147.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.1
model
Projected team totals
69.3 / 77.8
Marquette / Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#81
Marquette
67.1#278
Virginia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseVirginia
Virginia's shot-blocking
Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 15.1% of Marquette's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageMarquette
Where Marquette struggles: shooting
Marquette shoots an effective 50.5% (#215); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 48.0%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageVirginia
Where Virginia scores: the offensive glass
Virginia rebounds 37.9% of its own misses (#9); Marquette lets opponents grab 34.7% of their own misses (#331). Expect about 37.7%, 7.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashVirginia
Style match: ball movement
Virginia assists on 58.3% of its made baskets; Marquette allows assists on 60.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.3% — both habits push the same way.
DefenseMarquette
Marquette's ball-hawking
Marquette ranks #8 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Virginia's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia, Virginia's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marquette at about 40.6% of its shots from three, Virginia about 45.3%.
Marquette has the ball
OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #215
45.7% #8
-4.7 pt/100
16.0% #144
15.4% #255
+1.5 pt/100
29.7% #216
29.2% #120
-0.7 pt/100
32.8% #243
32.9% #129
-0.3 pt/100
67.5% #332
—
-0.4 pt/100
Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.5 pts/100
Virginia has the ball
OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg
54.6% #49
50.6% #131
+2.3 pt/100
16.0% #140
19.3% #38
-1.4 pt/100
37.9% #9
34.7% #331
+4.5 pt/100
32.3% #253
32.0% #104
-0.4 pt/100
72.8% #177
—
+0.0 pt/100
Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMarquetteoffense vsVirginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Marquette shoots
46.1
4.0
7.9
42.0
Virginia allows
34.2
7.9
21.0
36.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.0%#238 | 50.9%#7 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.6%#161 | 38.6%#150 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.3%#306 | 35.7%#97 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#297 | 31.6%#46 | 33.7% |
Virginiaoffense vsMarquettedefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia shoots
36.0
6.7
10.5
46.7
Marquette allows
39.3
4.7
16.5
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#105 | 60.9%#264 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.3%#59 | 36.3%#95 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#164 | 35.5%#88 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#48 | 32.7%#104 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMarquette
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
65.3%
#331
Turnover %
16.0%
#144
Forced TO %
19.3%
#38
FT rate
32.8%
#243
FT allowed
32.0%
#104
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Virginia
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#9
Def reb %
70.8%
#120
Turnover %
16.0%
#140
Forced TO %
15.4%
#255
FT rate
32.3%
#253
FT allowed
32.9%
#129
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Marquette’s +1.0 (#137).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Marquette2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nigel James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-29 | 29.3 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 52.0% | 34.7% | 3.8 | 69.2% | 35.0% | |
| 13 | Royce Parham | F | So | 6'8" | 31-20 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 58.4% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 65.0% | 23.4% | |
| 12 | Ben Gold | F | Sr | 6'11" | 31-26 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.3% | 26.4% | 4.5 | 65.3% | 17.8% | |
| 10 | Adrien Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-23 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 4.5 | 71.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Damarius Owens | F | So | 6'7" | 30-1 | 15.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 71.7% | 19.5% | |
| 18 | Caedin Hamilton | F | So | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 67.5% | 16.9% | |
| 5 | Tre Norman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 44.1% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 35 | Michael Phillips II | F | Fr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.6% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 35.7% | 19.1% | |
| 22 | Sean Jones | G | Jr | 5'10" | 8-3 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 32.1% | 3.5 | 68.8% | 21.5% | |
| 8 | Joshua Clark | F | So | 7'1" | 22-0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | Casey O'Malley | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 42 | Braeden Brenn | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 41 | Jonah Lucas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 21 | Ian Miletic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nash Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Sheek Pearson | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Dallin Hall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 50.9% | 32.0% | 2.9 | 81.3% | 14.3% | |
| 28 | Thijs De Ridder | F | Fr | 6'9" | 36-36 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.9% | 35.7% | 3.1 | 70.9% | 32.5% | |
| 5 | Sam Lewis | G | Jr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 40.3% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 24.7% | |
| 2 | Chance Mallory | G | Fr | 5'10" | 36-0 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 50.6% | 34.5% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 23.3% | |
| 17 | Johann Grunloh | C | Fr | 7'0" | 36-36 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 59.0% | 35.0% | 1.7 | 55.7% | 19.5% | |
| 11 | Devin Tillis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-1 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 2.1 | 78.3% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Elijah Gertrude | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 45.2% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Martin Carrere | G | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 35 | Carter Lang | F | So | 6'9" | 12-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 13 | Desmond Roberts | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 9.9% | |
| 22 | Owen Odom | G | Fr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 25.2% | |
| 21 | Silas Barksdale | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marquette2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nigel James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-29 | 29.3 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 52.0% | 34.7% | 3.8 | 69.2% | 35.0% | |
| 13 | Royce Parham | F | So | 6'8" | 31-20 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 58.4% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 65.0% | 23.4% | |
| 12 | Ben Gold | F | Sr | 6'11" | 31-26 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.3% | 26.4% | 4.5 | 65.3% | 17.8% | |
| 10 | Adrien Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-23 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 4.5 | 71.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Damarius Owens | F | So | 6'7" | 30-1 | 15.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 71.7% | 19.5% | |
| 18 | Caedin Hamilton | F | So | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 67.5% | 16.9% | |
| 5 | Tre Norman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 44.1% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 35 | Michael Phillips II | F | Fr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.6% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 35.7% | 19.1% | |
| 22 | Sean Jones | G | Jr | 5'10" | 8-3 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 32.1% | 3.5 | 68.8% | 21.5% | |
| 8 | Joshua Clark | F | So | 7'1" | 22-0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | Casey O'Malley | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 42 | Braeden Brenn | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 41 | Jonah Lucas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 21 | Ian Miletic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nash Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Sheek Pearson | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Marquette
Against the spread
Season
11-19-2
Home
6-10-1
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +5.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
6-11
Road
6-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −8.2
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Xavier | N | L 87–89 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 113.7 | 116.3 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | #4UConn | H | W 68–62 | +10.0 | W+16.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 101.1 | 92.2 | 67.2 |
| Mar 4 | Providence | A | W 78–56 | +4.5 | W+26.5 | 162.0 | U134 | 109.9 | 78.9 | 71.0 |
| Mar 1 | DePaul | H | L 51–62 | −4.5 | L−15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 80.6 | 98.0 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | Georgetown | A | W 76–60 | +2.5 | W+18.5 | 150.5 | U136 | 116.6 | 92.0 | 65.2 |
| Feb 18 | #17St John's | H | L 70–76 | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 157.0 | U146 | 102.2 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 14 | Xavier | A | L 88–96 | +2.0 | L−6.0 | 157.5 | O184 | 122.1 | 133.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 10 | Villanova | A | L 74–77 | +9.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | O151 | 105.5 | 109.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Butler | H | W 70–55 | −3.5 | W+11.5 | 155.5 | U125 | 104.6 | 82.2 | 66.9 |
| Jan 31 | Seton Hall | A | L 64–69 | +5.5 | W+0.5 | 143.0 | U133 | 102.8 | 110.8 | 62.3 |
Virginia
Against the spread
Season
17-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-19
Home
6-11
Road
4-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.5
Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #6Tennessee | N | L 72–79 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 109.8 | 120.5 | 65.5 |
| Mar 20 | #14Wright St | N | W 82–73 | −18.0 | L−9.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 126.3 | 112.4 | 64.9 |
| Mar 14 | #1Duke | N | L 70–74 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 110.1 | 116.4 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Miami | N | W 84–62 | −3.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O146 | 134.6 | 99.3 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | NC State | N | W 81–74 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 118.2 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Mar 7 | Virginia Tech | H | W 76–72 | −12.0 | L−8.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 114.6 | 108.5 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | Wake Forest | H | W 75–70 | −14.0 | L−9.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 110.3 | 102.9 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | #1Duke | A | L 51–77 | +10.0 | L−16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 83.7 | 126.4 | 60.9 |
| Feb 24 | NC State | H | W 90–61 | −6.0 | W+23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 128.0 | 86.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Miami | H | W 86–83 | −7.5 | L−4.5 | 146.5 | O169 | 132.7 | 128.1 | 64.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMarquetteVirginia
Efficiency
108.7
117.4
104.8
101.2
69.5
67.1
—
—
Shooting
50.5%
54.6%
52.7%
54.9%
31.7%
36.2%
67.5%
72.8%
32.8%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
16.0%
19.3%
15.4%
29.7%
37.9%
34.7%
29.2%
9.7%
9.6%
10.0%
10.0%
Style
42.2%
46.7%
47.8%
40.8%
19.5%
14.1%
58.1%
58.3%
29.0%
38.2%
Roster
2.02
2.24
6'5.9"
6'6"
79.8%
72.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMarquette
Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%
Lost
- Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
- Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Virginia
Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%
Lost
- Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.