CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCam Henderson Center, Huntington, WV

Prairie View

Efficiency #303

2025-26: 19-18 · 13-9 conf

Marshall

Efficiency #175

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Wed, Nov 25 · TBD

74.0

win 20%

Projected

83.6

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: MRSH −9.6 · total 157.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marshall 69.7, Prairie View 70.5 → 71.8 possessions

+7.6

Marshall offense vs Prairie View defense

+3.6

Prairie View offense vs Marshall defense

−1.8

Projected total

157.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marshall offense vs Prairie View defense

+3.6

Prairie View offense vs Marshall defense

+1.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Marshall by 9.6

9.6

Prairie View side ◂▸ Marshall side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 157.6 against a projected 157.7, and the margin steps add to +9.5 against +9.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marshall.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Prairie View is the faster team (72.4, #16 of 365) and Marshall the slower (70.7, #66). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

157.7

model

Projected team totals

74.0 / 83.6

Prairie View / Marshall

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.5#28

Prairie View

69.7#71

Marshall

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Marshall averages 70.7 possessions per 40, Prairie View 72.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantagePrairie View

Where Prairie View struggles: shooting

Prairie View shoots an effective 47.4% (#330); Marshall allows 50.3% (#118). Expect about 48.5%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashPrairie View

Style match: ball movement

Prairie View creates off the dribble (assists on 43.2% of its baskets); Marshall breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.3% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageMarshall

Where Marshall scores: shooting

Marshall shoots an effective 54.8% (#42); Prairie View allows 50.9% (#149). Expect about 53.1%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMarshall

Marshall owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.9% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Marshall's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Marshall) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Prairie View at about 32.4% of its shots from three, Marshall about 39.1%.

Prairie View has the ball

OffenseMarshall allowsvs D1 avg

47.4% #330

50.3% #118

-3.9 pt/100

15.8% #124

16.3% #201

+1.1 pt/100

26.7% #305

33.8% #316

-0.6 pt/100

41.6% #35

41.1% #313

+0.8 pt/100

75.6% #63

—

+0.3 pt/100

Prairie View net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Marshall has the ball

OffensePrairie View allowsvs D1 avg

54.8% #42

50.9% #149

+2.7 pt/100

16.6% #171

19.0% #50

-1.6 pt/100

31.9% #127

35.4% #344

+2.1 pt/100

29.2% #328

42.6% #333

+0.2 pt/100

73.0% #168

—

+0.1 pt/100

Marshall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie Viewoffense vsMarshalldefense

Share of shots by zone

Prairie View shoots

37.2

6.7

24.9

31.2

Marshall allows

36.7

5.4

18.8

39.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.1%#296	60.2%#241	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#231	35.8%#87	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#230	34.0%#50	38.0%
Three	32.9%#237	33.6%#162	33.7%

Marshalloffense vsPrairie Viewdefense

Share of shots by zone

Marshall shoots

31.0

3.9

21.0

44.1

Prairie View allows

44.4

8.5

14.8

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.8%#8	58.2%#150	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.8%#248	34.9%#56	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#229	35.3%#83	38.0%
Three	36.8%#34	35.0%#247	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie View

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#211 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#305

Def reb %

64.6%

#344

Turnover %

15.8%

#124

Forced TO %

19.0%

#50

FT rate

41.6%

#35

FT allowed

42.6%

#333

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Marshall

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#127

Def reb %

66.2%

#316

Turnover %

16.6%

#171

Forced TO %

16.3%

#201

FT rate

29.2%

#328

FT allowed

41.1%

#313

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed−1.5

Prairie View has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#211 of 365) to Marshall’s −3.7 (#322).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marshall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
50	Jalen Speer	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	32.5	15.7	4.1	5.5	2.4	48.7%	36.4%	7.8	83.0%	30.4%
5	Noah Otshudi	G	Sr	6'2"	31-31	31.5	14.5	3.4	3.5	2.7	48.9%	30.0%	2.3	84.5%	29.0%
3	Wilson Dubinsky	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	18.8	5.0	3.2	1.2	0.4	49.6%	37.1%	3.3	77.4%	15.6%
15	Caleb Hollenbeck	G	Sr	6'4"	32-27	17.3	5.7	1.6	1.0	0.4	58.3%	39.7%	4.3	41.7%	17.5%
6	Landen Joseph	G	Fr	6'2"	31-6	17.8	7.9	2.5	2.1	1.2	59.2%	41.3%	3.0	70.8%	24.5%
13	Matt Van Komen	C	Sr	7'4"	22-20	20.9	7.8	7.6	0.6	1.6	73.7%	—	0.0	76.2%	18.7%
11	Erich Harding	F	So	6'10"	32-12	14.3	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.1	47.2%	15.5%
9	Shamarrie Hugie	G	Jr	6'6"	26-1	12.3	4.4	2.5	0.5	0.7	56.8%	41.4%	1.1	64.7%	20.4%
4	Drew Fuquay	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.8	2.8	1.9	0.2	0.3	64.3%	41.7%	0.4	72.7%	17.5%
8	Bryce Slay	G	Fr	6'6"	24-0	8.7	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	41.3%	35.7%	1.2	81.3%	16.5%
0	Kai Spears	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	4.9	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.1	88.9%	16.0%
14	Grant Moore	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	35.8%
1	Kaiden White	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Will Moore	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Prairie View

Against the spread

Season

22-11

Home

5-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +6.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18-1

Home

3-6

Road

9-6-1

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.9

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	L 55–114	+35.0	L−24.0	154.0	O169	79.4	164.5	69.3
Mar 18	#16LehighAdjEM #273	N	W 67–55	+3.0	W+15.0	142.5	U122	102.8	84.4	65.2
Mar 14	SouthernAdjEM #286	N	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	145.0	U138	109.3	100.2	65.9
Mar 13	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	N	W 74–55	+2.0	W+21.0	140.5	U129	117.2	87.1	63.1
Mar 11	BethuneAdjEM #260	N	W 71–67	+5.5	W+9.5	148.0	U138	108.0	101.9	65.8
Mar 10	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	N	W 65–56	−6.0	W+3.0	142.5	U121	97.7	84.2	66.5
Mar 5	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	W 70–59	+1.5	W+12.5	153.0	U129	104.4	88.0	67.0
Feb 28	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	H	W 72–51	−4.5	W+16.5	150.0	U123	102.3	72.5	70.4
Feb 26	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 85–76 OT	−4.5	W+4.5	161.5	U161	114.2	102.1	74.4
Feb 21	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	L 82–84	+3.5	W+1.5	158.0	O166	120.8	123.7	67.9

Marshall

Against the spread

Season

10-20-1

Home

4-11-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

19-12

Home

12-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +12.6

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 78–82	−3.5	L−7.5	166.5	U160	107.7	113.3	72.4
Feb 27	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	L 82–99	−7.5	L−24.5	168.5	O181	114.4	138.1	71.7
Feb 24	Old DominionAdjEM #242	H	W 97–88	−8.5	W+0.5	160.5	O185	134.5	122.0	72.1
Feb 21	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	L 75–79	−2.5	L−6.5	153.5	O154	99.5	104.8	75.3
Feb 19	App StateAdjEM #180	A	W 94–93	+3.5	W+4.5	143.5	O187	141.4	139.9	66.5
Feb 16	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	H	W 84–80	−5.5	L−1.5	151.0	O164	129.8	123.6	64.7
Feb 14	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	A	L 87–101	−2.5	L−16.5	162.5	O188	112.2	130.3	77.5
Feb 11	Old DominionAdjEM #242	A	W 81–79	−3.0	L−1.0	156.0	O160	114.7	111.9	70.6
Feb 7	#23Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 74–90	+2.0	L−14.0	164.5	U164	104.9	127.6	70.5
Feb 4	Southern MissAdjEM #218	H	W 81–77	−10.5	L−6.5	148.5	O158	122.1	116.1	66.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Prairie ViewMarshall

Efficiency

103.2

111.3

110.8

111.2

70.5

69.7

—

Shooting

47.4%

54.8%

46.5%

54.6%

32.9%

36.8%

75.6%

73.0%

41.6%

29.2%

Ball control & glass

15.8%

16.6%

19.0%

16.3%

26.7%

31.9%

35.4%

33.8%

8.8%

10.1%

8.2%

8.1%

Style

30.6%

44.3%

41.8%

37.7%

17.7%

15.3%

43.2%

56.5%

24.1%

32.6%

Roster

3.78

3.30

6'4.6"

—

85.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Prairie View

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marshall

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 80.3%

Lost

Wyatt Fricks 29.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kaiden White no D1 minutes last season
Will Moore no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.