CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSuncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FLFort Myers Tip-Off - Palms Division
Georgia St
Efficiency #310
2025-26: 10-22 · 7-12 conf
vs
FGCU
Efficiency #246
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 4:00 PM ET
71.8
win 40%
Projected
74.7
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: FGCU −3.0 · total 146.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: FGCU 68.5, Georgia St 68.7 → 68.9 possessions
+1.2
FGCU offense vs Georgia St defense
0.0
Georgia St offense vs FGCU defense
−3.0
Projected total
146.5
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
FGCU offense vs Georgia St defense
0.0
Georgia St offense vs FGCU defense
+3.0
FGCU by 3.0
3.0
Georgia St side ◂▸ FGCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.4 against a projected 146.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FGCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FGCU is the faster team (69.1, #142 of 365) and Georgia St the slower (68.8, #161). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.5
model
Projected team totals
71.8 / 74.7
Georgia St / FGCU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#146
Georgia St
68.5#167
FGCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageGeorgia St
Where Georgia St struggles: shooting
Georgia St shoots an effective 44.2% (#362); FGCU allows 53.4% (#280). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Georgia St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Georgia St at about 46.1% of its shots from three, FGCU about 38.3%.
GlassGeorgia St
Georgia St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.4% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Georgia St's offense.
ClashGeorgia St
Style match: paint scoring
Georgia St gets only 32.1% of its points in the paint; FGCU protects the paint (39.3% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.0% — both habits push the same way.
Georgia St has the ball
OffenseFGCU allowsvs D1 avg
44.2% #362
53.4% #280
-4.3 pt/100
15.9% #133
16.5% #183
+0.8 pt/100
27.7% #278
28.2% #73
-1.8 pt/100
37.2% #124
38.3% #268
+0.4 pt/100
78.6% #11
—
+0.5 pt/100
Georgia St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100
FGCU has the ball
OffenseGeorgia St allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #147
50.6% #135
+0.1 pt/100
15.9% #131
16.4% #197
+0.9 pt/100
31.1% #161
33.6% #312
+1.3 pt/100
29.1% #331
34.9% #175
-0.4 pt/100
72.1% #207
—
-0.0 pt/100
FGCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Georgia Stoffense vsFGCUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia St shoots
FGCU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.3%#35859.6%#21258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.4%#29639.8%#18839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28437.6%#14738.0%
Three30.6%#32935.4%#27533.7%
FGCUoffense vsGeorgia Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
FGCU shoots
Georgia St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.2%#8957.4%#12758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.0%#17137.9%#13439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5538.1%#16138.0%
Three33.2%#21933.1%#13233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Georgia St
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#222 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#278
Def reb %
66.4%
#312
Turnover %
15.9%
#133
Forced TO %
16.4%
#197
FT rate
37.2%
#124
FT allowed
34.9%
#175
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.1
FGCU
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#221 of 365
Off reb %
31.1%
#161
Def reb %
71.8%
#73
Turnover %
15.9%
#131
Forced TO %
16.5%
#183
FT rate
29.1%
#331
FT allowed
38.3%
#268
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.8

Both teams carry the same grade, −0.9 extra scoring chances per game.

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Georgia St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Georgia St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
22Malachi BrownGJr6'1"32-3131.012.33.83.02.248.7%36.5%5.279.3%25.9%
0Micah TuckerGFr6'3"31-2831.513.52.13.01.948.6%32.5%3.881.3%25.9%
10Jelani HamiltonGSo6'5"27-2631.217.84.62.31.944.6%34.0%5.888.4%34.5%
12Anthony EnohFJr6'7"30-1722.15.05.00.80.937.4%23.3%1.465.2%17.2%
6Joah ChappelleFSo6'8"28-1923.67.35.30.50.848.5%37.8%1.670.6%18.8%
20Ayouba BertheGSr6'5"32-216.94.41.90.80.738.3%27.9%3.881.8%19.8%
4Trey Scott IIIFFr6'11"26-320.65.33.40.70.547.1%28.1%2.566.7%17.0%
32Christian BeamCSo7'1"26-1515.63.23.90.20.847.2%—0.057.9%14.4%
1Jakai NewtonGSo6'4"21-617.07.23.60.91.039.8%26.2%3.182.1%28.9%
2James CooperFSr6'8"24-107.31.01.50.20.137.5%—0.071.4%10.0%
55Chris JonesGFr6'6"19-08.02.61.10.30.450.0%33.3%1.1100.0%20.1%
8Isaiah SherrardFJr6'7"11-310.41.80.70.30.637.5%25.0%1.550.0%16.4%
9Kwame TanicFSo6'7"1-03.03.01.00.00.0150.0%100.0%1.0—17.8%
21Clash PetersFSo6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Emmanuel KoveosGJr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Georgia StFGCU
Efficiency
101.9
107.1
109.9
110.7
68.7
68.5
—
—
Shooting
44.2%
52.0%
42.9%
53.3%
30.6%
33.2%
78.6%
72.1%
37.2%
29.1%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
15.9%
16.4%
16.5%
27.7%
31.1%
33.6%
28.2%
8.6%
9.2%
8.7%
8.6%
Style
42.4%
38.4%
32.1%
43.1%
10.3%
15.4%
50.6%
52.0%
33.0%
33.0%
Roster
2.24
2.83
6'5.7"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Georgia St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Georgia St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

FGCU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.