CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLenovo Center, Raleigh, NC

Norfolk St

Efficiency #305

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-7 conf

NC State

Efficiency #34

2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf

Wed, Nov 25 · TBD

68.6

win 6%

Projected

86.3

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: NCSU −17.7 · total 154.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: NC State 69.4, Norfolk St 68.8 → 70.0 possessions

+3.5

NC State offense vs Norfolk St defense

+8.4

Norfolk St offense vs NC State defense

−5.2

Projected total

154.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

NC State offense vs Norfolk St defense

+8.4

Norfolk St offense vs NC State defense

+5.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

NC State by 17.7

17.7

Norfolk St side ◂▸ NC State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +17.6 against +17.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC State is the faster team (69.5, #112 of 365) and Norfolk St the slower (69.1, #140). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.9

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 86.3

Norfolk St / NC State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#132

Norfolk St

69.4#88

NC State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNC State

Where NC State scores: shooting

NC State shoots an effective 55.0% (#35); Norfolk St allows 51.7% (#196). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNorfolk St

Where Norfolk St struggles: ball control

Norfolk St turns it over on 18.7% of possessions (#310); NC State forces turnovers on 18.2% of opponent possessions (#90). Expect about 18.8%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Norfolk St at about 35.9% of its shots from three, NC State about 44.0%.

DefenseNC State

NC State's ball-hawking

NC State ranks #39 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.3% of Norfolk St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashNorfolk St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Norfolk St rarely shoots threes (30.6% of its shots); NC State lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashNC State

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

NC State (#8 in turnover rate) against Norfolk St (#56 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 16.0%. Historically Norfolk St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

Norfolk St has the ball

OffenseNC State allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #277

52.7% #256

-0.6 pt/100

18.7% #310

18.2% #90

-2.4 pt/100

32.5% #108

30.5% #181

+0.9 pt/100

43.5% #13

36.9% #235

+0.7 pt/100

68.1% #323

—

-0.4 pt/100

Norfolk St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

NC State has the ball

OffenseNorfolk St allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #35

51.7% #196

+3.4 pt/100

13.1% #8

18.8% #56

+1.0 pt/100

28.2% #258

32.3% #270

-0.4 pt/100

35.1% #175

45.3% #351

+0.8 pt/100

76.8% #36

—

+0.4 pt/100

NC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Norfolk Stoffense vsNC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Norfolk St shoots

43.1

5.2

21.8

30.0

NC State allows

38.3

5.2

11.9

44.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.3%#292	58.4%#160	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.1%#268	37.2%#117	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#249	37.2%#137	38.0%
Three	34.2%#157	35.5%#281	33.7%

NC Stateoffense vsNorfolk Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

NC State shoots

39.1

5.5

13.0

42.4

Norfolk St allows

38.8

3.6

14.7

42.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#148	61.1%#273	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.4%#354	41.2%#213	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#273	42.7%#327	38.0%
Three	38.8%#6	32.0%#61	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Norfolk St

−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#183 of 365

Off reb %

32.5%

#108

Def reb %

67.7%

#270

Turnover %

18.7%

#310

Forced TO %

18.8%

#56

FT rate

43.5%

#13

FT allowed

45.3%

#351

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−1.3

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−2.6

NC State

+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#80 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#258

Def reb %

69.5%

#181

Turnover %

13.1%

Forced TO %

18.2%

#90

FT rate

35.1%

#175

FT allowed

36.9%

#235

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.4

NC State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.4 (#80 of 365) to Norfolk St’s −0.1 (#183).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Norfolk St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Norfolk St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Anthony McComb III	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	34.2	17.1	4.2	1.4	1.7	49.6%	38.1%	5.3	79.0%	28.4%
2	Elijah Jamison	G	Sr	6'3"	32-12	27.4	14.6	3.3	2.9	2.2	47.8%	29.2%	3.0	81.2%	32.9%
11	Devon Ellis	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	27.3	11.1	4.4	1.6	1.3	59.1%	38.9%	1.7	68.3%	21.7%
20	Jordan Leaks	G	So	6'3"	32-28	23.5	5.4	3.4	1.6	1.2	42.5%	27.0%	3.5	44.7%	18.1%
23	Keyontae Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	31-23	17.8	5.6	3.9	0.5	0.9	56.9%	—	0.0	57.4%	18.7%
3	My'kel Jenkins	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	18.9	5.7	3.2	1.0	1.0	44.1%	32.8%	2.3	71.1%	21.0%
21	Jaquel Morris	F	Sr	6'8"	32-7	13.7	4.6	3.4	0.2	0.8	70.0%	—	0.0	58.6%	17.4%
0	Adrean Newton	G	Fr	6'0"	27-24	15.4	4.0	1.6	2.1	1.6	52.8%	47.8%	0.9	50.0%	19.5%
1	Dian Wright-Forde	G	Sr	6'3"	31-0	13.3	5.0	1.8	1.2	1.0	48.8%	34.5%	0.9	57.8%	25.2%
6	Melo Baines	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.8	4.4	2.0	0.1	0.5	67.7%	100.0%	0.0	75.0%	19.4%
14	Yel Deeng	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.5	0.9	1.5	0.1	0.2	35.3%	20.0%	0.8	0.0%	14.2%
22	Mekhi Reid	F	Jr	6'4"	10-0	4.5	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.3	60.7%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	22.2%
13	Ahmad Torrence	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	8.3	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	13.9%
35	Dramane Camara	G	Jr	6'6"	1-0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	8.3%
24	Ryan Williams	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Darrion Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-33	30.1	14.0	4.6	2.8	1.5	51.1%	40.4%	5.8	77.3%	28.0%
2	Paul McNeil Jr.	G	So	6'5"	34-32	28.7	13.8	3.6	0.8	0.4	59.7%	42.7%	7.2	82.4%	22.7%
22	Ven-Allen Lubin	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	28.1	13.6	7.1	0.9	0.8	67.4%	27.3%	0.3	74.3%	21.8%
21	Terrance Arceneaux	G	Jr	6'6"	30-0	15.8	3.8	2.6	0.5	0.4	48.5%	32.6%	1.5	77.3%	14.8%
13	Musa Sagnia	F	Fr	6'10"	34-1	12.4	2.3	2.8	0.2	0.5	60.5%	25.0%	0.1	45.5%	11.3%
7	Alyn Breed	G	Sr	6'3"	21-7	14.8	4.5	1.9	1.3	0.4	47.3%	34.5%	1.4	89.3%	17.7%
15	Jerry Deng	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	12.6	6.1	2.1	0.4	0.4	46.7%	32.4%	4.3	85.7%	28.9%
12	Scottie Ebube	C	Sr	6'10"	17-1	4.1	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.4	88.9%	—	0.0	23.1%	17.5%
0	Jordan Snell	G	Sr	6'3"	8-1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	37.5%	28.6%	0.9	—	23.8%
45	Colt Langdon	F	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	25.8%
10	Jayme Kontuniemi	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Zymicah Wilkins	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Norfolk St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Norfolk St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Anthony McComb III	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	34.2	17.1	4.2	1.4	1.7	49.6%	38.1%	5.3	79.0%	28.4%
2	Elijah Jamison	G	Sr	6'3"	32-12	27.4	14.6	3.3	2.9	2.2	47.8%	29.2%	3.0	81.2%	32.9%
11	Devon Ellis	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	27.3	11.1	4.4	1.6	1.3	59.1%	38.9%	1.7	68.3%	21.7%
20	Jordan Leaks	G	So	6'3"	32-28	23.5	5.4	3.4	1.6	1.2	42.5%	27.0%	3.5	44.7%	18.1%
23	Keyontae Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	31-23	17.8	5.6	3.9	0.5	0.9	56.9%	—	0.0	57.4%	18.7%
3	My'kel Jenkins	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	18.9	5.7	3.2	1.0	1.0	44.1%	32.8%	2.3	71.1%	21.0%
21	Jaquel Morris	F	Sr	6'8"	32-7	13.7	4.6	3.4	0.2	0.8	70.0%	—	0.0	58.6%	17.4%
0	Adrean Newton	G	Fr	6'0"	27-24	15.4	4.0	1.6	2.1	1.6	52.8%	47.8%	0.9	50.0%	19.5%
1	Dian Wright-Forde	G	Sr	6'3"	31-0	13.3	5.0	1.8	1.2	1.0	48.8%	34.5%	0.9	57.8%	25.2%
6	Melo Baines	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.8	4.4	2.0	0.1	0.5	67.7%	100.0%	0.0	75.0%	19.4%
14	Yel Deeng	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.5	0.9	1.5	0.1	0.2	35.3%	20.0%	0.8	0.0%	14.2%
22	Mekhi Reid	F	Jr	6'4"	10-0	4.5	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.3	60.7%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	22.2%
13	Ahmad Torrence	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	8.3	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	13.9%
35	Dramane Camara	G	Jr	6'6"	1-0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	8.3%
24	Ryan Williams	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Norfolk St

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

4-4-1

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.6

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-10

Home

6-3

Road

8-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +7.5

Over 5 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	SC StateAdjEM #357	N	L 82–88	−8.5	L−14.5	144.5	O170	108.6	116.6	75.5
Mar 5	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 76–84	+6.5	L−1.5	148.5	O160	109.8	121.4	69.2
Mar 2	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 84–90	−3.5	L−9.5	157.0	O174	111.4	119.4	75.4
Feb 28	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	W 75–69	−8.0	L−2.0	141.5	O144	113.6	104.5	66.0
Feb 21	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	W 90–71	−10.0	W+9.0	140.5	O161	126.1	99.5	71.4
Feb 16	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 70–66	−2.0	W+2.0	136.5	U136	118.5	111.7	59.1
Feb 14	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 75–58	−9.0	W+8.0	134.0	U133	119.1	92.1	63.0
Feb 7	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 75–68	−4.5	W+2.5	148.5	U143	104.5	94.8	71.7
Jan 31	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 60–88	+7.0	L−21.0	146.5	O148	85.6	125.5	70.1
Jan 26	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 78–79	−8.0	L−9.0	153.5	O157	102.5	103.8	76.1

NC State

Against the spread

Season

15-17-2

Home

8-9

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −9.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-13

Home

9-8

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +8.7

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#11TexasAdjEM #38	N	L 66–68	−1.0	L−3.0	157.5	U134	97.5	100.5	67.7
Mar 12	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 74–81	+7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	108.0	118.2	68.5
Mar 11	PittAdjEM #120	N	W 98–88	−9.0	W+1.0	144.5	O186	148.8	133.6	65.8
Mar 7	StanfordAdjEM #77	H	L 84–85	−9.0	L−10.0	152.5	O169	122.3	123.7	68.7
Mar 2	#1DukeAdjEM #2	H	L 64–93	+9.0	L−20.0	150.5	O157	99.3	144.3	64.5
Feb 28	Notre DameAdjEM #106	A	L 90–96 OT	−6.5	L−12.5	155.0	O186	126.1	134.5	71.4
Feb 24	#11VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 61–90	+6.0	L−23.0	152.0	U151	86.7	128.0	70.3
Feb 17	#16North CarolinaAdjEM #29	H	W 82–58	−7.5	W+16.5	155.5	U140	127.6	90.2	64.3
Feb 14	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	L 76–77	−5.5	L−6.5	158.0	U153	117.3	118.8	64.8
Feb 9	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	A	L 77–118	+7.0	L−34.0	161.5	O195	95.7	146.7	80.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Norfolk StNC State

Efficiency

103.9

117.3

111.7

105.5

68.8

69.4

—

Shooting

49.3%

55.0%

48.4%

52.6%

34.2%

38.8%

68.1%

76.8%

43.5%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

18.7%

13.1%

18.8%

18.2%

32.5%

28.2%

32.3%

30.5%

10.7%

7.4%

10.8%

9.4%

Style

30.6%

43.4%

45.2%

39.8%

18.4%

12.9%

45.9%

54.6%

38.5%

31.0%

Roster

3.20

3.11

6'4.7"

6'6.7"

—

63.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Norfolk St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Norfolk St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

NC State

Returning minutes: 63.1%Returning production: 61.6%

Lost

Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina

Added

Zymicah Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
Jayme Kontuniemi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.