CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.8 against a projected 142.9, and the margin steps add to +5.9 against +6.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Columbia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Columbia is the faster team (67.1, #236 of 365) and Saint Peter's the slower (65.5, #316). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.6%#351 | 55.9%#84 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.8%#198 | 35.6%#77 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.2%#216 | 42.1%#308 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.0%#321 | 35.2%#258 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.8%#167 | 51.7%#13 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.0%#222 | 41.1%#210 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.3%#137 | 39.6%#227 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.9%#61 | 32.1%#68 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSaint Peter's has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#189 of 365) to Columbia’s −1.2 (#241).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bryce Eaton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 29-21 | 27.2 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 43.9% | 31.0% | 4.9 | 82.4% | 30.9% | |
| 15 | Bryson Wilsonat Binghamton | G | Sr | 6'5" | 28-22 | 28.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 44.8% | 24.1% | 1.9 | 77.5% | 24.9% | |
| 7 | Elijah Perkins | G | Sr | 6'4" | 22-19 | 25.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 36.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 55.6% | 13.9% | |
| 2 | Shaedon Simpson | G | Jr | 6'6" | 18-4 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 1.8 | 84.2% | 19.4% | |
| 3 | Trey Pattersonat Rice | F | Sr | 6'9" | 13-0 | 8.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 30.4% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 66.7% | 17.7% | |
| 0 | Phoenix Glassnorat Toledo | G | So | 6'0" | 6-0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 25.6% | |
| 17 | Bourgeois Tshiloboat Weber St | F | So | 6'8" | 7-0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 69.2% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 24.0% | |
| 14 | Jonathan Noudjihidiat UC Davis | C | Jr | 6'11" | 3-0 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 16.6% | |
| 24 | Robert Wilmote | G | Jr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.3% | |
| 23 | Akil Watson | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Ken Walker | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Mason Santiago | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Xavier Thomas | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kenny Noland | G | Sr | 6'2" | 28-28 | 33.1 | 17.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 54.5% | 37.5% | 6.9 | 92.1% | 30.7% | |
| 3 | Blair Thompson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 31.0 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 59.9% | 40.9% | 3.9 | 64.1% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Mason Ritter | F | So | 6'9" | 28-28 | 24.4 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.4% | 14.3% | 0.5 | 66.1% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Miles Franklin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 26-22 | 23.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.9% | 22.9% | 2.7 | 64.9% | 25.9% | |
| 4 | Gerard O'Keefe | G | So | 6'3" | 27-4 | 21.6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 60.8% | 42.4% | 3.7 | 69.6% | 20.6% | |
| 10 | Connor Igoe | F | Fr | 6'7" | 28-6 | 19.8 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 53.8% | 34.1% | 1.6 | 63.2% | 28.0% | |
| 12 | Ryan Soulis | F | So | 6'10" | 26-17 | 20.0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 51.2% | 21.4% | 1.1 | 63.3% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Hampton Sanders | G | Jr | 6'0" | 28-0 | 15.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 74.3% | 19.5% | |
| 22 | Richard Nweke | F | Jr | 6'7" | 20-0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 51.1% | — | 0.0 | 60.9% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Zine Eddine Bedri | F | Sr | 6'10" | 5-5 | 24.4 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 58.7% | 44.4% | 1.8 | 58.8% | 37.4% | |
| 6 | Leland Coleman | F | So | 6'7" | 15-0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 42.9% | 22.5% | |
| 1 | Avery Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-2 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 50.0% | 75.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 25.3% | |
| 8 | Josiah Cunningham | G | So | 6'2" | 5-0 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 33.3% | 24.4% | |
| 0 | Edwin Bai | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 7.0% | |
| 21 | Dan Vessey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Nicolo Romanelli | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Nigel Clarkson | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bryce Eaton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 29-21 | 27.2 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 43.9% | 31.0% | 4.9 | 82.4% | 30.9% | |
| 15 | Bryson Wilsonat Binghamton | G | Sr | 6'5" | 28-22 | 28.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 44.8% | 24.1% | 1.9 | 77.5% | 24.9% | |
| 7 | Elijah Perkins | G | Sr | 6'4" | 22-19 | 25.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 36.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 55.6% | 13.9% | |
| 2 | Shaedon Simpson | G | Jr | 6'6" | 18-4 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 1.8 | 84.2% | 19.4% | |
| 3 | Trey Pattersonat Rice | F | Sr | 6'9" | 13-0 | 8.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 30.4% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 66.7% | 17.7% | |
| 0 | Phoenix Glassnorat Toledo | G | So | 6'0" | 6-0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 25.6% | |
| 17 | Bourgeois Tshiloboat Weber St | F | So | 6'8" | 7-0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 69.2% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 24.0% | |
| 14 | Jonathan Noudjihidiat UC Davis | C | Jr | 6'11" | 3-0 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 16.6% | |
| 24 | Robert Wilmote | G | Jr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.3% | |
| 23 | Akil Watson | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Ken Walker | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Mason Santiago | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Xavier Thomas | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Fairfield | N | L 55–74 | −2.5 | L−21.5 | 137.5 | U129 | 85.3 | 114.7 | 64.5 |
| Mar 1 | Marist | A | W 63–56 | +4.0 | W+11.0 | 132.0 | U119 | 98.6 | 87.6 | 63.9 |
| Feb 27 | Manhattan | H | W 75–65 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | U140 | 119.5 | 103.6 | 62.8 |
| Feb 22 | Siena | A | L 63–72 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 136.0 | U135 | 102.6 | 117.3 | 61.4 |
| Feb 20 | Iona | A | L 64–72 OT | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 140.5 | U136 | 84.4 | 94.9 | 75.9 |
| Feb 15 | Fairfield | H | W 83–74 | −4.0 | W+5.0 | 142.0 | O157 | 120.7 | 107.6 | 68.8 |
| Feb 13 | Sacred Heart | A | L 71–78 | −1.5 | L−8.5 | 148.0 | O149 | 110.6 | 121.5 | 64.2 |
| Feb 7 | Siena | H | W 70–65 | +1.0 | W+6.0 | 136.0 | U135 | 102.9 | 95.5 | 68.0 |
| Feb 5 | Manhattan | A | W 80–75 | −4.5 | W+0.5 | 145.5 | O155 | 128.1 | 120.1 | 62.5 |
| Feb 1 | Rider | A | L 78–81 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 119.5 | 124.1 | 65.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Harvard | A | L 71–81 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O152 | 105.4 | 120.2 | 67.4 |
| Feb 28 | Yale | H | L 54–60 | +6.5 | W+0.5 | 146.0 | U114 | 89.0 | 98.9 | 60.7 |
| Feb 27 | Brown | H | W 80–62 | −5.5 | W+12.5 | 140.0 | O142 | 117.6 | 91.1 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | Dartmouth | H | L 63–64 | −7.0 | L−8.0 | 151.5 | U127 | 93.8 | 95.3 | 67.2 |
| Feb 14 | Princeton | A | W 75–65 | −1.5 | W+8.5 | 136.5 | O140 | 133.2 | 115.5 | 56.3 |
| Feb 13 | Penn | A | L 67–76 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 148.0 | U143 | 95.2 | 108.0 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | Cornell | H | L 67–88 | +1.0 | L−20.0 | 170.5 | U155 | 101.9 | 133.9 | 65.7 |
| Jan 31 | Princeton | H | L 68–80 | −5.5 | L−17.5 | 139.0 | O148 | 109.6 | 129.0 | 62.0 |
| Jan 30 | Penn | H | W 72–67 | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 153.5 | U139 | 107.4 | 99.9 | 67.0 |
| Jan 24 | Dartmouth | A | W 79–69 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 157.0 | U148 | 110.6 | 96.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Brent Bland 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Jahki Gupton 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zaakir Williamson 21.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- TJ Robinson 18.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lucas Scroggins 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Adetokunbo Bakare 10.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bryson Wilson from Binghamton · 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Trey Patterson from Rice · 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Phoenix Glassnor from Toledo · 1.1 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Bourgeois Tshilobo from Weber St · 1.1 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Jonathan Noudjihidi from UC Davis · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Xavier Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.