CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLevien Gymnasium, New York, NY
Saint Peter's
Efficiency #225
2025-26: 17-12 · 14-7 conf
@
Columbia
Efficiency #166
2025-26: 16-12 · 5-9 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 2:00 PM ET
68.5
win 30%
Projected
74.4
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: COLU −6.0 · total 142.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Columbia 68.0, Saint Peter's 67.1 → 66.7 possessions
−3.5
Columbia offense vs Saint Peter's defense
+0.1
Saint Peter's offense vs Columbia defense
−2.0
Projected total
142.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Columbia offense vs Saint Peter's defense
+0.1
Saint Peter's offense vs Columbia defense
+2.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Columbia by 6.0
6.0
Saint Peter's side ◂▸ Columbia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.8 against a projected 142.9, and the margin steps add to +5.9 against +6.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Columbia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Columbia is the faster team (67.1, #236 of 365) and Saint Peter's the slower (65.5, #316). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.9
model
Projected team totals
68.5 / 74.4
Saint Peter's / Columbia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#283
Saint Peter's
68.0#211
Columbia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColumbia
Where Columbia struggles: ball control
Columbia turns it over on 19.3% of possessions (#333); Saint Peter's forces turnovers on 20.0% of opponent possessions (#22). Expect about 20.3%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSaint Peter's
Where Saint Peter's struggles: shooting
Saint Peter's shoots an effective 46.4% (#347); Columbia allows 51.2% (#168). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassColumbia
Columbia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.4% is worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions for Columbia's offense.
Pace
Half-court grind
Columbia averages 67.1 possessions per 40, Saint Peter's 65.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseSaint Peter's
Saint Peter's's ball-hawking
Saint Peter's ranks #7 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Columbia's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Peter's) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Saint Peter's at about 36.6% of its shots from three, Columbia about 35.4%.
Saint Peter's has the ball
OffenseColumbia allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #347
51.2% #168
-4.1 pt/100
17.7% #249
15.0% #288
+0.7 pt/100
37.0% #16
27.2% #42
+1.9 pt/100
35.5% #163
33.5% #140
-0.1 pt/100
73.6% #148
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Peter's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100
Columbia has the ball
OffenseSaint Peter's allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #83
48.1% #39
-0.5 pt/100
19.3% #333
20.0% #22
-4.4 pt/100
36.1% #23
34.7% #330
+3.7 pt/100
28.6% #337
46.4% #354
+0.5 pt/100
70.1% #271
—
-0.2 pt/100
Columbia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Peter'soffense vsColumbiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Peter's shoots
Columbia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.6%#35155.9%#8458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.8%#19835.6%#7739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21642.1%#30838.0%
Three31.0%#32135.2%#25833.7%
Columbiaoffense vsSaint Peter'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Columbia shoots
Saint Peter's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.8%#16751.7%#1358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22241.1%#21039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.3%#13739.6%#22738.0%
Three35.9%#6132.1%#6833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Peter's
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#189 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#16
Def reb %
65.3%
#330
Turnover %
17.7%
#249
Forced TO %
20.0%
#22
FT rate
35.5%
#163
FT allowed
46.4%
#354
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−2.9
Columbia
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
36.1%
#23
Def reb %
72.8%
#42
Turnover %
19.3%
#333
Forced TO %
15.0%
#288
FT rate
28.6%
#337
FT allowed
33.5%
#140
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.4

Saint Peter's has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#189 of 365) to Columbia’s −1.2 (#241).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Saint Peter's2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Bryce EatonGJr6'0"29-2127.211.13.04.02.343.9%31.0%4.982.4%30.9%
15Bryson Wilsonat BinghamtonGSr6'5"28-2228.19.94.40.92.044.8%24.1%1.977.5%24.9%
7Elijah PerkinsGSr6'4"22-1925.43.92.91.80.836.3%0.0%0.555.6%13.9%
2Shaedon SimpsonGJr6'6"18-411.23.31.60.30.545.7%33.3%1.884.2%19.4%
3Trey Pattersonat RiceFSr6'9"13-08.11.41.60.00.430.4%22.2%0.766.7%17.7%
0Phoenix Glassnorat ToledoGSo6'0"6-06.33.00.80.30.353.3%33.3%1.0100.0%25.6%
17Bourgeois Tshiloboat Weber StFSo6'8"7-04.92.62.00.10.469.2%—0.00.0%24.0%
14Jonathan Noudjihidiat UC DavisCJr6'11"3-06.00.31.70.31.00.0%—0.033.3%16.6%
24Robert WilmoteGJr6'4"1-03.02.00.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—17.3%
23Akil WatsonFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Ken WalkerGSr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Mason SantiagoGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Xavier ThomasFJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Phoenix Glassnor (from Toledo), Jonathan Noudjihidi (from UC Davis), Trey Patterson (from Rice), Bourgeois Tshilobo (from Weber St), Bryson Wilson (from Binghamton)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Saint Peter'sColumbia
Efficiency
105.4
109.0
108.1
108.6
67.1
68.0
—
—
Shooting
46.4%
53.5%
46.2%
53.2%
31.0%
35.9%
73.6%
70.1%
35.5%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
19.3%
20.0%
15.0%
37.0%
36.1%
34.7%
27.2%
9.3%
10.1%
10.0%
9.9%
Style
38.7%
37.5%
39.9%
47.0%
17.0%
9.9%
53.2%
54.3%
36.5%
32.6%
Roster
3.54
2.59
6'3.5"
6'5.7"
26.5%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Saint Peter's
Returning minutes: 26.5%Returning production: 21.7%
Lost
  • Brent Bland 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jahki Gupton 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zaakir Williamson 21.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • TJ Robinson 18.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lucas Scroggins 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Adetokunbo Bakare 10.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Bryson Wilson from Binghamton · 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Trey Patterson from Rice · 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Phoenix Glassnor from Toledo · 1.1 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Bourgeois Tshilobo from Weber St · 1.1 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Jonathan Noudjihidi from UC Davis · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
  • Xavier Thomas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Columbia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.