CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNewman Arena, Ithaca, NY
UAlbany
Efficiency #306
2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf
@
Cornell
Efficiency #135
2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
75.4
win 18%
Projected
86.2
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: COR −10.8 · total 161.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Cornell 70.9, UAlbany 67.0 → 69.6 possessions
+2.7
Cornell offense vs UAlbany defense
+8.8
UAlbany offense vs Cornell defense
+1.9
Projected total
161.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Cornell offense vs UAlbany defense
+8.8
UAlbany offense vs Cornell defense
−1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Cornell by 10.8
10.8
UAlbany side ◂▸ Cornell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.9 against +10.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cornell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and UAlbany the slower (65.6, #311). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
161.6
model
Projected team totals
75.4 / 86.2
UAlbany / Cornell
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#291
UAlbany
70.9#19
Cornell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCornell
Where Cornell scores: shooting
Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); UAlbany allows 53.2% (#275). Expect about 56.5%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUAlbany
Where UAlbany scores: shooting
UAlbany shoots an effective 51.3% (#182); Cornell allows 55.9% (#343). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Cornell averages 71.3 possessions per 40, UAlbany 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UAlbany at about 37.2% of its shots from three, Cornell about 49.9%.
UAlbany has the ball
OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #182
55.9% #343
+3.4 pt/100
18.5% #300
15.1% #279
+0.1 pt/100
32.7% #99
30.6% #187
+1.0 pt/100
24.9% #364
37.2% #244
-0.4 pt/100
65.9% #354
—
-0.6 pt/100
UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.5 pts/100
Cornell has the ball
OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg
58.5% #7
53.2% #275
+7.4 pt/100
16.0% #139
15.8% #230
+1.3 pt/100
30.2% #193
32.4% #277
+0.5 pt/100
30.2% #304
35.7% #202
-0.2 pt/100
74.1% #124
—
+0.2 pt/100
Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UAlbanyoffense vsCornelldefense
Share of shots by zone
UAlbany shoots
Cornell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22860.7%#25658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)49.0%#1444.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.9%#14641.7%#29338.0%
Three32.6%#24837.5%#34933.7%
Cornelloffense vsUAlbanydefense
Share of shots by zone
Cornell shoots
UAlbany allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7756.9%#11058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)51.5%#741.3%#21939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3139.6%#22538.0%
Three38.3%#1436.0%#30233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UAlbany
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#99
Def reb %
67.6%
#277
Turnover %
18.5%
#300
Forced TO %
15.8%
#230
FT rate
24.9%
#364
FT allowed
35.7%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Cornell
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#193
Def reb %
69.4%
#187
Turnover %
16.0%
#139
Forced TO %
15.1%
#279
FT rate
30.2%
#304
FT allowed
37.2%
#244
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5

Cornell has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.4 (#281 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UAlbany2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Amir LindseyGSo5'11"31-3137.617.93.34.92.051.7%34.9%5.679.2%29.2%
00Okechukwu OkekeFSr6'10"32-2529.810.87.30.92.269.3%100.0%0.056.5%20.5%
5Isaac AbiddeFSr6'9"32-2925.39.44.40.61.356.1%36.2%4.065.0%22.9%
11Jaden KempsonGJr6'3"24-2031.010.24.43.02.043.1%29.5%3.362.2%24.9%
14Zacharie MatuluGSo6'4"21-1828.49.95.71.81.457.0%36.0%4.175.0%21.0%
4Miles RoseGSo6'4"29-615.73.31.61.41.041.0%33.3%0.636.7%19.6%
24Tarique FosterFJr6'8"22-820.35.92.20.90.948.8%33.3%4.164.7%20.3%
13Ma'Kye TaylorFSo6'7"31-413.73.42.20.50.847.5%9.1%0.745.0%19.0%
8Nas MuhammadGJr6'1"15-520.59.12.32.30.747.6%34.2%5.375.0%27.0%
22Abdoulaye FallGJr6'10"7-730.79.63.41.11.651.9%31.8%3.185.7%20.8%
7Ife West-IngramFJr6'7"9-114.36.92.80.80.772.6%25.0%0.450.0%21.2%
25Yaya KeitaCJr6'9"13-48.63.31.80.50.551.6%—0.078.6%21.7%
10Bautista GiraltCSo7'0"15-22.91.00.70.20.262.5%—0.050.0%20.4%
33Sully AdewaleFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Wilkin PaulinoGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Will RichardsonGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UAlbanyCornell
Efficiency
105.5
116.2
113.4
114.3
67.0
70.9
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
58.5%
52.8%
59.7%
32.6%
38.3%
65.9%
74.1%
24.9%
30.2%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
16.0%
15.8%
15.1%
32.7%
30.2%
32.4%
30.6%
10.4%
9.1%
9.4%
9.6%
Style
37.6%
51.6%
49.5%
38.9%
13.7%
14.4%
48.9%
66.7%
26.3%
41.9%
Roster
2.86
3.37
6'5.2"
6'3.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UAlbany
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Cornell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Dec 212025-26Cornell 83 – 75 UAlbany

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.