CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceICCU Arena, Moscow, ID
N Dakota St
Efficiency #90
2025-26: 27-8 · 17-2 conf
@
Idaho
Efficiency #156
2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
72.4
win 45%
Projected
73.9
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: IDHO −1.5 · total 146.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Idaho 68.4, N Dakota St 67.8 → 67.9 possessions
−0.9
Idaho offense vs N Dakota St defense
−1.7
N Dakota St offense vs Idaho defense
+0.7
Projected total
146.4
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Idaho offense vs N Dakota St defense
−1.7
N Dakota St offense vs Idaho defense
−0.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Idaho by 1.5
1.5
N Dakota St side ◂▸ Idaho side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.3 against a projected 146.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Idaho.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Idaho is the faster team (69.1, #139 of 365) and N Dakota St the slower (68.1, #196). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.4
model
Projected team totals
72.4 / 73.9
N Dakota St / Idaho
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.8#225
N Dakota St
68.4#176
Idaho
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetClashIdaho
Style match: 3-point volume
Idaho takes 47.0% of its shots from three; N Dakota St lets opponents take 44.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.5% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageIdaho
Where Idaho struggles: the offensive glass
Idaho rebounds 28.4% of its own misses (#250); N Dakota St lets opponents grab 25.5% of their own misses (#15). Expect about 26.6%, 3.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageN Dakota St
Where N Dakota St scores: ball control
N Dakota St turns it over on 15.6% of possessions (#112); Idaho forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#283). Expect about 15.0%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashN Dakota St
Style clash: 3-point volume
N Dakota St takes 42.8% of its shots from three; Idaho runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
N Dakota St has the ball
OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #92
50.5% #128
+1.1 pt/100
15.6% #112
15.1% #283
+2.1 pt/100
32.9% #89
24.2% #5
-0.8 pt/100
30.6% #289
38.5% #273
-0.0 pt/100
71.4% #227
—
-0.1 pt/100
N Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100
Idaho has the ball
OffenseN Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #177
52.0% #215
+0.6 pt/100
15.0% #64
18.7% #65
-0.2 pt/100
28.4% #250
25.5% #15
-2.3 pt/100
34.6% #193
29.2% #46
-0.5 pt/100
72.6% #181
—
+0.0 pt/100
Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersN Dakota Stoffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
N Dakota St shoots
36.1
8.0
13.0
43.0
Idaho allows
36.5
7.8
20.7
35.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.2%#115 | 55.5%#76 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#105 | 43.7%#263 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.5%#134 | 38.8%#195 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.4%#93 | 35.2%#264 | 33.7% |
Idahooffense vsN Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
36.9
5.6
10.5
47.0
N Dakota St allows
35.5
6.0
15.5
43.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.8%#245 | 60.0%#225 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.2%#216 | 42.7%#241 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.0%#185 | 38.2%#166 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.1%#168 | 33.9%#173 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersN Dakota St
+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365
Off reb %
32.9%
#89
Def reb %
74.5%
#15
Turnover %
15.6%
#112
Forced TO %
18.7%
#65
FT rate
30.6%
#289
FT allowed
29.2%
#46
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.5
Idaho
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#250
Def reb %
75.8%
#5
Turnover %
15.0%
#64
Forced TO %
15.1%
#283
FT rate
34.6%
#193
FT allowed
38.5%
#273
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8
N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#24 of 365) to Idaho’s +0.6 (#158).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
N Dakota St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Andy Stefonowicz | G | So | 6'2" | 35-33 | 32.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 52.6% | 37.7% | 4.2 | 90.3% | 18.0% | |
| 0 | Trevian Carson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-34 | 31.6 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 54.9% | 37.5% | 3.4 | 80.3% | 22.1% | |
| 1 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 30.5 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 50.7% | 38.3% | 5.9 | 76.9% | 27.7% | |
| 30 | Markhi Strickland | G | Sr | 6'6" | 35-33 | 24.3 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 59.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Noah Feddersen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 35-16 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 55.6% | 29.3% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 24.1% | |
| 3 | Tay Smith | G | Sr | 6'2" | 35-5 | 19.8 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 56.7% | 39.1% | 5.5 | 76.5% | 21.2% | |
| 44 | Treyson Anderson | F | So | 6'9" | 35-19 | 18.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 57.5% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 65.8% | 32.6% | |
| 8 | Emil Skytta | G | Jr | 6'5" | 26-0 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 58.6% | 37.5% | 0.3 | 40.0% | 17.6% | |
| 2 | Riley Massey | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-1 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 37.0% | 22.9% | 1.1 | 71.4% | 12.7% | |
| 7 | Carson Smith | G | Fr | 6'6" | 24-2 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.4% | 22.6% | 1.3 | 91.7% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Max Majerle | G | Jr | 6'4" | 18-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 29.5% | 12.5% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.4% | |
| 22 | Caleb Schoenrock | F | Fr | 6'7" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.1% | |
| 13 | Riley Saunders | G | Fr | 5'11" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 93.8% | 62.5% | 0.9 | — | 27.0% | |
| 14 | Dom Clay | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Idaho2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jackson Rasmussen | F | Fr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 31.0 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 53.4% | 32.1% | 3.1 | 68.3% | 26.3% | |
| 14 | Kolton Mitchell | G | So | 6'1" | 33-32 | 30.4 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 50.3% | 36.3% | 6.1 | 79.7% | 26.5% | |
| 3 | Biko Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 36-35 | 27.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 45.5% | 30.8% | 5.5 | 72.5% | 29.3% | |
| 0 | Brody Rowbury | F | Sr | 6'11" | 36-36 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 63.0% | 38.7% | 0.9 | 68.3% | 16.5% | |
| 7 | Jack Payne | G | Jr | 6'6" | 34-22 | 21.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 31.6% | 4.0 | 82.4% | 19.8% | |
| 5 | Isaiah Brickner | G | Sr | 6'4" | 35-13 | 20.5 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 55.6% | 41.1% | 3.2 | 76.0% | 31.9% | |
| 21 | Seth Joba | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-0 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 55.4% | 35.5% | 2.6 | 65.6% | 17.6% | |
| 1 | Trevon Blassingame | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-3 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 58.9% | 37.9% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 13.2% | |
| 24 | Miles Klapper | G | So | 6'3" | 29-4 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 1.4 | 68.4% | 18.1% | |
| 4 | Aidan Sevilla | G | Sr | 6'0" | 20-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 48.5% | 28.6% | 0.7 | 88.9% | 19.5% | |
| 15 | Ewan Steele | F | So | 6'9" | 15-0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 14.0% | |
| 10 | Kristian Gonzalez | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 93.8% | 75.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 35.7% | |
| 2 | Talon Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Titus Yearout | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Tyler Linhardt | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Will Jenson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
N Dakota St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Andy Stefonowicz | G | So | 6'2" | 35-33 | 32.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 52.6% | 37.7% | 4.2 | 90.3% | 18.0% | |
| 0 | Trevian Carson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-34 | 31.6 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 54.9% | 37.5% | 3.4 | 80.3% | 22.1% | |
| 1 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 30.5 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 50.7% | 38.3% | 5.9 | 76.9% | 27.7% | |
| 30 | Markhi Strickland | G | Sr | 6'6" | 35-33 | 24.3 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 59.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Noah Feddersen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 35-16 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 55.6% | 29.3% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 24.1% | |
| 3 | Tay Smith | G | Sr | 6'2" | 35-5 | 19.8 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 56.7% | 39.1% | 5.5 | 76.5% | 21.2% | |
| 44 | Treyson Anderson | F | So | 6'9" | 35-19 | 18.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 57.5% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 65.8% | 32.6% | |
| 8 | Emil Skytta | G | Jr | 6'5" | 26-0 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 58.6% | 37.5% | 0.3 | 40.0% | 17.6% | |
| 2 | Riley Massey | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-1 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 37.0% | 22.9% | 1.1 | 71.4% | 12.7% | |
| 7 | Carson Smith | G | Fr | 6'6" | 24-2 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.4% | 22.6% | 1.3 | 91.7% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Max Majerle | G | Jr | 6'4" | 18-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 29.5% | 12.5% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.4% | |
| 22 | Caleb Schoenrock | F | Fr | 6'7" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.1% | |
| 13 | Riley Saunders | G | Fr | 5'11" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 93.8% | 62.5% | 0.9 | — | 27.0% | |
| 14 | Dom Clay | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26N Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
17-13-2
Home
7-4
Road
8-6-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
14-16-2
Home
6-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.5
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #3Michigan St | N | L 67–92 | +16.0 | L−9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 92.0 | 126.4 | 72.8 |
| Mar 8 | North Dakota | N | W 70–62 | −11.0 | L−3.0 | 148.0 | U132 | 108.4 | 96.0 | 64.6 |
| Mar 7 | Omaha | N | W 74–50 | −8.0 | W+16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 109.2 | 73.8 | 67.8 |
| Mar 5 | Oral Roberts | N | W 76–65 | −12.0 | L−1.0 | 147.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 96.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 28 | North Dakota | H | W 96–63 | −12.0 | W+21.0 | 152.5 | O159 | 131.1 | 86.1 | 73.2 |
| Feb 26 | St Thomas | A | L 62–84 | +3.0 | L−19.0 | 155.5 | U146 | 95.1 | 128.8 | 65.2 |
| Feb 21 | Kansas City | H | W 95–59 | −19.5 | W+16.5 | 147.5 | O154 | 123.0 | 76.4 | 77.2 |
| Feb 18 | S Dakota St | A | W 74–66 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 147.0 | U140 | 113.0 | 100.8 | 65.5 |
| Feb 14 | North Dakota | A | W 83–66 | −5.5 | W+11.5 | 150.5 | U149 | 128.1 | 101.9 | 64.8 |
| Feb 7 | Omaha | H | W 92–84 | −9.5 | L−1.5 | 144.5 | O176 | 137.2 | 125.2 | 67.1 |
Idaho
Against the spread
Season
16-17
Home
4-6
Road
7-9
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-20
Home
4-6
Road
6-10
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −5.9
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #2Houston | N | L 47–78 | +24.0 | L−7.0 | 137.5 | U125 | 71.6 | 118.8 | 65.7 |
| Mar 11 | Montana | N | W 77–66 | −3.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | U143 | 106.8 | 91.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 10 | E Washington | N | W 81–68 | −2.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O149 | 113.2 | 95.1 | 71.5 |
| Mar 8 | Montana St | N | W 78–74 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 143.0 | O152 | 115.7 | 109.8 | 67.4 |
| Mar 7 | Sacramento St | N | W 68–45 | −7.0 | W+16.0 | 158.5 | U113 | 98.2 | 65.0 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | E Washington | A | W 85–81 | +3.0 | W+7.0 | 150.5 | O166 | 127.0 | 121.0 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | N Colorado | H | L 67–76 | −2.0 | L−11.0 | 156.0 | U143 | 100.0 | 113.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | N Arizona | H | W 78–58 | −10.5 | W+9.5 | 146.0 | U136 | 128.6 | 95.6 | 60.7 |
| Feb 21 | Sacramento St | A | W 86–80 | −4.0 | W+2.0 | 165.0 | O166 | 117.4 | 109.2 | 73.3 |
| Feb 19 | Portland St | A | L 67–77 | +3.5 | L−6.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 97.7 | 112.3 | 68.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeN Dakota StIdaho
Efficiency
110.7
108.3
106.2
107.3
67.8
68.4
—
—
Shooting
53.2%
51.4%
53.3%
51.6%
35.4%
34.1%
71.4%
72.6%
30.6%
34.6%
Ball control & glass
15.6%
15.0%
18.7%
15.1%
32.9%
28.4%
25.5%
24.2%
9.2%
9.0%
9.3%
9.0%
Style
42.8%
47.0%
43.2%
39.4%
11.9%
9.2%
53.0%
44.6%
31.2%
31.4%
Roster
2.81
2.88
6'4.2"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputN Dakota St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Idaho
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.