CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC

Hampton

Efficiency #268

2025-26: 13-19 · 7-12 conf

Wake Forest

Efficiency #76

2025-26: 18-17 · 8-12 conf

Tue, Dec 8 · TBD

67.4

win 15%

Projected

79.2

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: WAKE −11.8 · total 146.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wake Forest 69.0, Hampton 67.0 → 67.7 possessions

−1.4

Wake Forest offense vs Hampton defense

+3.9

Hampton offense vs Wake Forest defense

−4.1

Projected total

146.6

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wake Forest offense vs Hampton defense

+3.9

Hampton offense vs Wake Forest defense

+4.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Wake Forest by 11.8

11.8

Hampton side ◂▸ Wake Forest side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.9 against +11.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wake Forest.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wake Forest is the faster team (69.4, #120 of 365) and Hampton the slower (66.0, #297). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.6

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 79.2

Hampton / Wake Forest

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#286

Hampton

69.0#125

Wake Forest

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHampton

Where Hampton struggles: shooting

Hampton shoots an effective 45.7% (#356); Wake Forest allows 51.8% (#202). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Hampton) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hampton at about 42.2% of its shots from three, Wake Forest about 39.0%.

GlassHampton

Hampton owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Hampton's offense.

AdvantageWake Forest

Where Wake Forest scores: shooting

Wake Forest shoots an effective 52.7% (#117); Hampton allows 52.0% (#212). Expect about 52.5%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashWake Forest

Style clash: 3-point volume

Wake Forest takes 43.6% of its shots from three; Hampton runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Hampton has the ball

OffenseWake Forest allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #356

51.8% #202

-4.2 pt/100

17.0% #206

17.7% #115

-0.9 pt/100

32.9% #90

33.0% #298

+1.8 pt/100

39.2% #73

35.7% #203

+0.3 pt/100

72.5% #191

—

+0.0 pt/100

Hampton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

Wake Forest has the ball

OffenseHampton allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #117

52.0% #212

+1.7 pt/100

15.5% #106

17.2% #135

+0.6 pt/100

30.1% #196

30.0% #165

-0.2 pt/100

35.2% #170

46.5% #355

+0.9 pt/100

77.6% #22

—

+0.5 pt/100

Wake Forest net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Hamptonoffense vsWake Forestdefense

Share of shots by zone

Hampton shoots

37.0

6.6

21.2

35.2

Wake Forest allows

36.1

5.6

11.2

47.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.5%#286	60.3%#244	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.7%#358	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#167	38.5%#183	38.0%
Three	28.8%#357	32.9%#117	33.7%

Wake Forestoffense vsHamptondefense

Share of shots by zone

Wake Forest shoots

33.8

6.0

16.4

43.8

Hampton allows

40.7

7.6

17.8

33.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#70	64.3%#344	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.9%#126	41.4%#223	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#145	35.4%#85	38.0%
Three	34.1%#166	32.1%#65	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Hampton

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#210 of 365

Off reb %

32.9%

#90

Def reb %

70.0%

#165

Turnover %

17.0%

#206

Forced TO %

17.2%

#135

FT rate

39.2%

#73

FT allowed

46.5%

#355

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−2.9

Wake Forest

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#156 of 365

Off reb %

30.1%

#196

Def reb %

67.0%

#298

Turnover %

15.5%

#106

Forced TO %

17.7%

#115

FT rate

35.2%

#170

FT allowed

35.7%

#203

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Wake Forest has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#156 of 365) to Hampton’s −0.7 (#210).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hampton2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Xzavier Long	F	Sr	6'7"	30-27	34.6	9.8	9.6	1.9	2.0	46.4%	25.0%	2.8	67.7%	20.0%
11	Daniel Johnson	G	So	6'7"	32-29	25.1	10.0	5.0	0.7	0.9	45.7%	31.9%	3.6	73.0%	27.2%
2	Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt	G	Jr	6'0"	29-23	26.2	11.2	1.4	3.0	2.3	43.9%	26.4%	2.5	76.8%	29.9%
5	Etienne Strothers	G	So	6'2"	32-15	18.8	6.2	1.7	1.7	1.2	44.4%	31.7%	2.6	76.2%	23.6%
23	Josh Ogundele	F	Sr	7'0"	27-22	17.6	6.7	3.5	0.6	1.1	56.8%	40.0%	0.4	60.8%	23.8%
0	Kody Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	29-8	16.0	2.7	1.0	1.6	0.6	35.8%	22.9%	1.7	72.7%	15.0%
3	Michael Eley	G	Sr	6'4"	23-10	19.2	13.0	3.4	0.7	0.7	54.3%	30.9%	4.1	88.2%	36.2%
1	Christian Watson	G	Sr	6'6"	25-6	17.6	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.9	44.1%	27.1%	1.9	79.2%	23.8%
15	Eunique Rink	F	So	6'10"	30-7	11.7	1.9	1.9	0.2	0.4	63.4%	—	0.0	42.9%	10.1%
13	Aidan Haskins	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.2	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.2	51.7%	39.7%	2.2	50.0%	17.1%
8	Elijah Kennedy	G	Sr	6'4"	22-5	13.0	4.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	50.0%	29.4%	1.5	57.1%	24.3%
24	Quintin Cooper	G	Fr	6'2"	27-3	8.6	3.6	1.1	0.6	0.5	39.7%	16.1%	1.1	56.3%	34.1%
12	Peter Oduro	F	Sr	6'8"	24-2	6.4	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.1	28.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
22	Kellan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.4	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.3	50.0%	42.9%	0.8	42.9%	20.6%
30	Hamza Asadallah	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	3.4	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	—	12.8%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wake Forest2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Juke Harris	G	So	6'7"	35-35	35.2	21.4	6.5	1.9	1.7	52.7%	33.2%	7.5	78.3%	33.1%
6	Myles Colvin	G	Jr	6'5"	35-24	27.2	11.6	4.4	1.4	1.7	50.0%	36.0%	4.7	87.0%	25.5%
0	Omaha Biliew	F	Jr	6'8"	35-24	20.2	6.3	2.4	0.5	0.7	56.7%	36.8%	2.5	79.4%	16.7%
8	Mekhi Mason	G	Sr	6'5"	34-12	20.1	7.4	2.6	1.4	1.0	50.0%	33.8%	4.0	67.7%	22.9%
1	Nate Calmese	G	Sr	6'2"	26-23	24.7	10.3	1.9	4.5	1.8	55.5%	39.8%	4.0	77.4%	25.0%
10	Sebastian Akins	G	So	6'2"	35-8	15.1	5.3	1.5	1.9	1.2	43.3%	18.0%	1.4	77.8%	24.8%
7	Isaac Carr	G	Fr	6'4"	23-4	12.8	2.5	1.9	1.3	0.7	47.0%	31.3%	0.7	62.5%	15.0%
11	Marqus Marion	F	So	6'9"	20-0	12.1	1.4	2.3	0.7	0.3	42.0%	9.1%	0.6	61.5%	8.3%
23	Jaylen Cross	F	Fr	6'4"	12-0	5.5	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.5	50.0%	60.0%	0.4	71.4%	23.7%
9	Vincent Ricchiuti	F	Jr	6'6"	4-0	2.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	34.8%
4	Will Underwood	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	1.8	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
30	Anson Beard Jr.	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.2%
44	Owen Kmety	F	Jr	6'7"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	28.9%
33	Dimitrije Kovacevic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Hampton2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Xzavier Long	F	Sr	6'7"	30-27	34.6	9.8	9.6	1.9	2.0	46.4%	25.0%	2.8	67.7%	20.0%
11	Daniel Johnson	G	So	6'7"	32-29	25.1	10.0	5.0	0.7	0.9	45.7%	31.9%	3.6	73.0%	27.2%
2	Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt	G	Jr	6'0"	29-23	26.2	11.2	1.4	3.0	2.3	43.9%	26.4%	2.5	76.8%	29.9%
5	Etienne Strothers	G	So	6'2"	32-15	18.8	6.2	1.7	1.7	1.2	44.4%	31.7%	2.6	76.2%	23.6%
23	Josh Ogundele	F	Sr	7'0"	27-22	17.6	6.7	3.5	0.6	1.1	56.8%	40.0%	0.4	60.8%	23.8%
0	Kody Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	29-8	16.0	2.7	1.0	1.6	0.6	35.8%	22.9%	1.7	72.7%	15.0%
3	Michael Eley	G	Sr	6'4"	23-10	19.2	13.0	3.4	0.7	0.7	54.3%	30.9%	4.1	88.2%	36.2%
1	Christian Watson	G	Sr	6'6"	25-6	17.6	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.9	44.1%	27.1%	1.9	79.2%	23.8%
15	Eunique Rink	F	So	6'10"	30-7	11.7	1.9	1.9	0.2	0.4	63.4%	—	0.0	42.9%	10.1%
13	Aidan Haskins	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.2	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.2	51.7%	39.7%	2.2	50.0%	17.1%
8	Elijah Kennedy	G	Sr	6'4"	22-5	13.0	4.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	50.0%	29.4%	1.5	57.1%	24.3%
24	Quintin Cooper	G	Fr	6'2"	27-3	8.6	3.6	1.1	0.6	0.5	39.7%	16.1%	1.1	56.3%	34.1%
12	Peter Oduro	F	Sr	6'8"	24-2	6.4	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.1	28.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
22	Kellan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.4	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.3	50.0%	42.9%	0.8	42.9%	20.6%
30	Hamza Asadallah	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	3.4	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	—	12.8%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Hampton

Against the spread

Season

17-12-1

Home

8-2

Road

7-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Covered 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-16-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

5-9

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.4

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	TowsonAdjEM #149	N	L 68–74	+7.5	W+1.5	132.0	O142	100.1	108.9	67.9
Mar 3	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 85–94	+11.5	W+2.5	154.0	O179	117.9	130.3	72.1
Feb 28	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 76–65	−4.5	W+6.5	146.5	U141	115.2	98.6	65.9
Feb 26	CharlestonAdjEM #165	H	L 71–85	+5.5	L−8.5	139.5	O156	103.8	124.3	68.4
Feb 21	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 72–79	+5.0	L−2.0	135.5	O151	104.5	114.6	68.9
Feb 19	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 43–79	+11.0	L−25.0	133.5	U122	70.5	129.5	61.0
Feb 13	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	L 70–71	−3.0	L−4.0	138.0	O141	105.6	107.1	66.3
Feb 7	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	W 77–74	+5.5	W+8.5	152.0	U151	107.7	103.6	71.5
Feb 5	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 87–79 2OT	+1.5	W+9.5	142.5	O166	110.2	100.1	78.9
Jan 31	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 50–82	+9.0	L−23.0	133.5	U132	76.1	124.8	65.7

Wake Forest

Against the spread

Season

16-18-1

Home

8-11-1

Road

4-5

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15

Home

14-6

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.3

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 75–78	−8.0	L−11.0	152.5	O153	108.0	112.3	69.5
Mar 18	NavyAdjEM #104	H	W 82–72	−10.0	P0.0	147.5	O154	124.1	109.0	66.1
Mar 11	ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	L 62–71	+5.5	L−3.5	142.0	U133	103.9	119.0	59.6
Mar 10	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	N	W 95–89 OT	−1.0	W+5.0	151.5	O184	126.6	118.6	75.0
Mar 7	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	H	W 80–73	−6.0	W+1.0	154.0	U153	109.6	100.1	73.0
Mar 3	#13VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 70–75	+14.0	W+9.0	149.5	U145	102.9	110.3	68.0
Feb 28	SyracuseAdjEM #85	H	W 88–83	−4.0	W+1.0	152.0	O171	135.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 25	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	A	L 67–68	−4.0	L−5.0	144.5	U135	105.3	106.9	63.6
Feb 21	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	A	L 63–82	+4.0	L−15.0	148.5	U145	104.0	135.3	60.6
Feb 18	ClemsonAdjEM #35	H	W 85–77	+4.0	W+12.0	140.0	O162	127.6	115.6	66.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

HamptonWake Forest

Efficiency

104.2

113.1

109.5

106.7

67.0

69.0

—

Shooting

45.7%

52.7%

47.1%

53.9%

28.8%

34.1%

72.5%

77.6%

39.2%

35.2%

Ball control & glass

17.0%

15.5%

17.2%

17.7%

32.9%

30.1%

30.0%

33.0%

9.3%

8.9%

11.8%

8.3%

Style

37.1%

43.6%

39.9%

15.5%

11.1%

48.9%

53.5%

39.9%

32.7%

Roster

3.04

2.74

6'5.1"

6'5.3"

—

75.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Hampton

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Wake Forest

Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 74.4%

Lost

Tre'Von Spillers 29.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cooper Schwieger 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Dimitrije Kovacevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.