CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteMadison Square Garden, New York, NYJimmy V Classic
Duke
Efficiency #2
2025-26: 35-3 · 20-1 conf
vs
Georgia
Efficiency #32
2025-26: 22-11 · 10-9 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
82.8
win 78%
Projected
73.7
win 22%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUKE −9.1 · total 156.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia 71.5, Duke 67.2 → 70.4 possessions
+4.5
Georgia offense vs Duke defense
−2.7
Duke offense vs Georgia defense
+6.4
Projected total
156.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia offense vs Duke defense
−2.7
Duke offense vs Georgia defense
−6.4
Duke by 9.1
9.1
Duke side ◂▸ Georgia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.4 against a projected 156.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia is the faster team (73.6, #8 of 365) and Duke the slower (66.8, #250). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.5
model
Projected team totals
82.8 / 73.7
Duke / Georgia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#274
Duke
71.5#10
Georgia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageDuke
Where Duke scores: the offensive glass
Duke rebounds 38.4% of its own misses (#4); Georgia lets opponents grab 34.9% of their own misses (#336). Expect about 38.2%, 7.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseGeorgia
Georgia's shot-blocking
Georgia ranks #10 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.2% of Duke's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Georgia averages 73.6 possessions per 40, Duke 66.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashGeorgia
Style match: 3-point volume
Georgia takes 44.3% of its shots from three; Duke lets opponents take 45.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.9% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Duke's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Duke at about 41.5% of its shots from three, Georgia about 46.9%.
ClashDuke
Style clash: ball movement
Duke assists on 58.8% of its made baskets; Georgia breaks up passing offenses (assists on 48.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Duke has the ball
OffenseGeorgia allowsvs D1 avg
56.6% #13
50.6% #134
+3.9 pt/100
15.9% #135
18.4% #81
-0.7 pt/100
38.4% #4
34.9% #336
+4.7 pt/100
38.2% #97
30.2% #65
-0.2 pt/100
72.9% #175
—
+0.0 pt/100
Duke net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100
Georgia has the ball
OffenseDuke allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #61
46.2% #13
-1.3 pt/100
14.3% #31
17.3% #132
+1.3 pt/100
34.9% #49
25.2% #10
+0.4 pt/100
36.9% #131
22.8% #2
-0.8 pt/100
75.0% #81
—
+0.2 pt/100
Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Dukeoffense vsGeorgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Duke shoots
Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.4%#2956.7%#10658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.7%#10843.8%#26539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3438.7%#18638.0%
Three34.7%#13333.6%#16533.7%
Georgiaoffense vsDukedefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia shoots
Duke allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.2%#6855.4%#7558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.0%#5141.9%#22939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.1%#21834.4%#6138.0%
Three33.8%#18530.6%#2733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Duke
+9.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#1 of 365
Off reb %
38.4%
#4
Def reb %
74.8%
#10
Turnover %
15.9%
#135
Forced TO %
17.3%
#132
FT rate
38.2%
#97
FT allowed
22.8%
#2
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.6
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+3.2
Georgia
+4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#49
Def reb %
65.1%
#336
Turnover %
14.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#81
FT rate
36.9%
#131
FT allowed
30.2%
#65
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.3

Duke has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.3 (#1 of 365) to Georgia’s +4.7 (#28).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Duke2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
13John Blackwellat WisconsinGSr6'5"34-3433.819.15.12.31.753.4%38.9%7.385.9%30.6%
7Dame SarrFSo6'8"38-3023.56.43.81.11.150.7%32.3%3.553.2%18.8%
2Cayden BoozerGSo6'4"38-1122.87.72.33.01.354.8%30.3%1.781.3%20.6%
1Caleb FosterGSr6'5"33-3024.98.33.52.81.153.3%39.8%3.058.2%21.0%
8Drew Scharnowskiat BelmontFSr6'10"30-2421.710.76.02.61.868.3%20.0%0.243.6%27.3%
26Jacob Theodosiouat Loyola MDGSr6'4"27-1823.413.13.62.72.551.7%29.6%3.667.2%35.2%
21Patrick Ngongba IICJr6'11"32-2821.910.15.82.01.362.8%25.8%1.066.4%24.8%
50Brock DavisGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Sebastian WilkinsFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Bryson HowardGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Cameron WilliamsFFr7'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Deron Rippey Jr.GFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
30Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeCFr7'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Maxime MeyerCFr7'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
55Nick ArnoldGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: John Blackwell (from Wisconsin), Drew Scharnowski (from Belmont), Jacob Theodosiou (from Loyola MD)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
DukeGeorgia
Efficiency
121.1
117.4
95.8
105.0
67.2
71.5
—
—
Shooting
56.6%
54.2%
60.2%
57.0%
34.7%
33.8%
72.9%
75.0%
38.2%
36.9%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
14.3%
17.3%
18.4%
38.4%
34.9%
25.2%
34.9%
9.7%
9.4%
9.6%
9.8%
Style
43.5%
44.3%
45.5%
43.2%
12.2%
22.1%
58.8%
48.1%
32.2%
41.6%
Roster
3.26
3.56
6'6.5"
6'6.2"
43.2%
44.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Duke
Returning minutes: 43.2%Returning production: 36.9%
Lost
  • Cameron Boozer 33.5 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Isaiah Evans 28.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Maliq Brown 20.2 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nikolas Khamenia 19.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Darren Harris 9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cameron Sheffield 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • John Blackwell from Wisconsin · 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
  • Drew Scharnowski from Belmont · 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
  • Jacob Theodosiou from Loyola MD · 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
  • Sebastian Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
  • Cameron Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Nick Arnold no D1 minutes last season

Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Georgia
Returning minutes: 44.2%Returning production: 44.6%
Lost
  • Jeremiah Wilkinson 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
  • Somto Cyril 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jordan Ross 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to California
  • Dylan James 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Bailey 11.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Abson 10.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Freddie Dilione V from Penn State · 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
  • James Scott from Ole Miss · 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
  • Brady Dunlap from Saint Louis · 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
  • Andrew Osasuyi from St Bonaventure · 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Mading Kuany no D1 minutes last season
  • Donovan Williams Jr. no D1 minutes last season

Returns 44% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.