CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJohn Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
Bethune
Efficiency #260
2025-26: 17-15 · 14-5 conf
@
Virginia
Efficiency #15
2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
64.5
win 6%
Projected
82.9
win 94%
No line posted yet.
Model: UVA −18.5 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Bethune 69.5 → 68.3 possessions
−0.1
Virginia offense vs Bethune defense
+6.9
Bethune offense vs Virginia defense
−7.6
Projected total
147.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia offense vs Bethune defense
+6.9
Bethune offense vs Virginia defense
+7.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Virginia by 18.5
18.5
Bethune side ◂▸ Virginia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.4 against +18.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bethune is the faster team (70.9, #57 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.4
model
Projected team totals
64.5 / 82.9
Bethune / Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#85
Bethune
67.1#278
Virginia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetClashBethune
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Bethune (#17 in shot-blocking exposure) against Virginia (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 13.9%. Historically Virginia's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
AdvantageBethune
Where Bethune struggles: shooting
Bethune shoots an effective 51.0% (#195); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageVirginia
Where Virginia scores: the offensive glass
Virginia rebounds 37.9% of its own misses (#9); Bethune lets opponents grab 31.7% of their own misses (#242). Expect about 36.3%, 5.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia, Virginia's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bethune at about 30.6% of its shots from three, Virginia about 41.1%.
ClashVirginia
Style clash: 3-point volume
Virginia takes 46.7% of its shots from three; Bethune runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashVirginia
Style clash: ball movement
Virginia assists on 58.3% of its made baskets; Bethune breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Bethune has the ball
OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #195
45.7% #8
-4.3 pt/100
19.2% #328
15.4% #255
-0.7 pt/100
30.1% #194
29.2% #120
-0.5 pt/100
40.9% #48
32.9% #129
+0.2 pt/100
69.7% #279
—
-0.2 pt/100
Bethune net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.5 pts/100
Virginia has the ball
OffenseBethune allowsvs D1 avg
54.6% #49
49.7% #88
+1.6 pt/100
16.0% #140
15.8% #229
+1.3 pt/100
37.9% #9
31.7% #242
+3.6 pt/100
32.3% #253
38.6% #276
+0.1 pt/100
72.8% #177
—
+0.0 pt/100
Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBethuneoffense vsVirginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Bethune shoots
48.3
5.2
16.9
29.6
Virginia allows
34.2
7.9
21.0
36.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#94 | 50.9%#7 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.3%#337 | 38.6%#150 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.0%#353 | 35.7%#97 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#230 | 31.6%#46 | 33.7% |
Virginiaoffense vsBethunedefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia shoots
36.0
6.7
10.5
46.7
Bethune allows
47.2
5.5
14.5
32.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#105 | 54.6%#52 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.3%#59 | 35.9%#89 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#164 | 39.8%#233 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#48 | 32.9%#112 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBethune
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#273 of 365
Off reb %
30.1%
#194
Def reb %
68.3%
#242
Turnover %
19.2%
#328
Forced TO %
15.8%
#229
FT rate
40.9%
#48
FT allowed
38.6%
#276
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Virginia
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#9
Def reb %
70.8%
#120
Turnover %
16.0%
#140
Forced TO %
15.4%
#255
FT rate
32.3%
#253
FT allowed
32.9%
#129
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Bethune’s −2.0 (#273).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Bethune2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jakobi Heady | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 58.0% | 41.5% | 3.0 | 80.4% | 25.2% | |
| 1 | Arterio Morris | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-8 | 27.7 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 44.0% | 24.7% | 2.4 | 56.6% | 31.4% | |
| 5 | Quentin Heady | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-28 | 25.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50.8% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 73.4% | 23.2% | |
| 23 | Daniel Rouzan | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 23.6 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Seneca Willoughby | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-25 | 25.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 44.1% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 73.2% | 12.4% | |
| 4 | Ariel Bland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-0 | 20.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 25 | Tyler Andrews | G | Sr | 6'6" | 25-21 | 20.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 60.9% | 42.0% | 3.5 | 67.7% | 18.2% | |
| 11 | Jordan Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 16.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.2% | 29.7% | 3.2 | 60.9% | 20.1% | |
| 2 | Rickey Mitchell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 14-4 | 16.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 39.4% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 66.7% | 20.4% | |
| 13 | Doctor Bradley | G | Sr | 6'8" | 8-4 | 22.1 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 55.2% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 47.7% | 33.0% | |
| 33 | David Onanina | C | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Dailon Minor | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 66.7% | 30.6% | |
| 22 | William Gonzalez | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.8 | — | 17.4% | |
| 30 | Simeon Womack | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 45.7% | |
| 24 | Trayvon Barbary | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 15 | Reggie Ward Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Dallin Hall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 50.9% | 32.0% | 2.9 | 81.3% | 14.3% | |
| 28 | Thijs De Ridder | F | Fr | 6'9" | 36-36 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.9% | 35.7% | 3.1 | 70.9% | 32.5% | |
| 5 | Sam Lewis | G | Jr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 40.3% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 24.7% | |
| 2 | Chance Mallory | G | Fr | 5'10" | 36-0 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 50.6% | 34.5% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 23.3% | |
| 17 | Johann Grunloh | C | Fr | 7'0" | 36-36 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 59.0% | 35.0% | 1.7 | 55.7% | 19.5% | |
| 11 | Devin Tillis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-1 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 2.1 | 78.3% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Elijah Gertrude | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 45.2% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Martin Carrere | G | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 35 | Carter Lang | F | So | 6'9" | 12-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 13 | Desmond Roberts | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 9.9% | |
| 22 | Owen Odom | G | Fr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 25.2% | |
| 21 | Silas Barksdale | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bethune2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jakobi Heady | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 58.0% | 41.5% | 3.0 | 80.4% | 25.2% | |
| 1 | Arterio Morris | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-8 | 27.7 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 44.0% | 24.7% | 2.4 | 56.6% | 31.4% | |
| 5 | Quentin Heady | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-28 | 25.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50.8% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 73.4% | 23.2% | |
| 23 | Daniel Rouzan | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 23.6 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Seneca Willoughby | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-25 | 25.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 44.1% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 73.2% | 12.4% | |
| 4 | Ariel Bland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-0 | 20.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 25 | Tyler Andrews | G | Sr | 6'6" | 25-21 | 20.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 60.9% | 42.0% | 3.5 | 67.7% | 18.2% | |
| 11 | Jordan Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 16.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.2% | 29.7% | 3.2 | 60.9% | 20.1% | |
| 2 | Rickey Mitchell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 14-4 | 16.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 39.4% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 66.7% | 20.4% | |
| 13 | Doctor Bradley | G | Sr | 6'8" | 8-4 | 22.1 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 55.2% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 47.7% | 33.0% | |
| 33 | David Onanina | C | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Dailon Minor | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 66.7% | 30.6% | |
| 22 | William Gonzalez | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.8 | — | 17.4% | |
| 30 | Simeon Womack | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 45.7% | |
| 24 | Trayvon Barbary | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 15 | Reggie Ward Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Bethune
Against the spread
Season
15-15-1
Home
6-4
Road
9-8-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
5-5
Road
12-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +2.7
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Prairie View | N | L 67–71 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 148.0 | U138 | 101.9 | 108.0 | 65.8 |
| Mar 5 | Florida A&M | A | L 77–81 | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | O158 | 107.3 | 112.9 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Southern | A | W 82–79 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 153.0 | O161 | 110.6 | 106.6 | 74.1 |
| Feb 26 | Grambling | A | W 76–71 | +1.0 | W+6.0 | 144.0 | O147 | 99.8 | 93.3 | 76.1 |
| Feb 21 | Alabama A&M | H | W 85–76 | −7.0 | W+2.0 | 143.0 | O161 | 125.6 | 112.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 19 | Alabama St | H | W 82–71 | −5.5 | W+5.5 | 148.0 | O153 | 114.8 | 99.4 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | Jackson St | A | L 86–91 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 150.0 | O177 | 111.5 | 118.0 | 77.2 |
| Feb 14 | Alcorn St | A | L 55–57 | −8.0 | L−10.0 | 145.0 | U112 | 86.2 | 89.3 | 63.8 |
| Feb 9 | Texas Southern | H | W 79–69 OT | −8.5 | W+1.5 | 152.0 | U148 | 106.5 | 93.0 | 74.2 |
| Feb 7 | Prairie View | H | W 82–76 | −10.5 | L−4.5 | 157.5 | O158 | 107.5 | 99.7 | 76.3 |
Virginia
Against the spread
Season
17-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-19
Home
6-11
Road
4-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.5
Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #6Tennessee | N | L 72–79 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 109.8 | 120.5 | 65.5 |
| Mar 20 | #14Wright St | N | W 82–73 | −18.0 | L−9.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 126.3 | 112.4 | 64.9 |
| Mar 14 | #1Duke | N | L 70–74 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 110.1 | 116.4 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Miami | N | W 84–62 | −3.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O146 | 134.6 | 99.3 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | NC State | N | W 81–74 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 118.2 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Mar 7 | Virginia Tech | H | W 76–72 | −12.0 | L−8.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 114.6 | 108.5 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | Wake Forest | H | W 75–70 | −14.0 | L−9.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 110.3 | 102.9 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | #1Duke | A | L 51–77 | +10.0 | L−16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 83.7 | 126.4 | 60.9 |
| Feb 24 | NC State | H | W 90–61 | −6.0 | W+23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 128.0 | 86.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Miami | H | W 86–83 | −7.5 | L−4.5 | 146.5 | O169 | 132.7 | 128.1 | 64.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBethuneVirginia
Efficiency
104.6
117.4
109.7
101.2
69.5
67.1
—
—
Shooting
51.0%
54.6%
51.6%
54.9%
33.0%
36.2%
69.7%
72.8%
40.9%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
16.0%
15.8%
15.4%
30.1%
37.9%
31.7%
29.2%
11.6%
9.6%
7.1%
10.0%
Style
29.7%
46.7%
49.1%
40.8%
19.9%
14.1%
50.4%
58.3%
32.9%
38.2%
Roster
3.59
2.24
6'5.5"
6'6"
—
72.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBethune
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Virginia
Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%
Lost
- Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.