CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.4 against a projected 149.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas Tech.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Omaha is the faster team (68.6, #166 of 365) and Texas Tech the slower (67.9, #206). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.9%#165 | 63.4%#331 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.7%#155 | 38.1%#140 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.5%#71 | 39.3%#213 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.0%#169 | 32.1%#67 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.5%#46 | 64.6%#346 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#33 | 39.7%#182 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#56 | 41.6%#291 | 38.0% |
| Three | 39.1%#4 | 32.9%#114 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersTexas Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#202 of 365) to Omaha’s −2.0 (#269).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lance Waddles | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 55.6% | 38.0% | 6.2 | 66.7% | 25.4% | |
| 32 | Tony Osburn | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-28 | 32.8 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 53.3% | 36.8% | 6.3 | 78.6% | 20.2% | |
| 5 | Ja'Sean Glover | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-8 | 25.9 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 49.2% | 28.3% | 3.2 | 86.7% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | Grant Stubblefield | G | Jr | 6'1" | 26-22 | 28.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 55.9% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 77.6% | 19.0% | |
| 11 | Paul Djobet | G | Jr | 6'7" | 20-18 | 29.9 | 17.4 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 58.0% | 41.5% | 4.1 | 72.0% | 33.0% | |
| 22 | Kamryn Thomas | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-14 | 20.8 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 48.6% | 34.6% | 1.9 | 62.2% | 15.9% | |
| 44 | Brock Scholl | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-9 | 14.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 44.8% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 71.1% | 17.8% | |
| 15 | Christian Richardson | C | Sr | 7'1" | 27-16 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 59.7% | 23.7% | |
| 25 | Khamani Cooper | G | Jr | 6'4" | 26-9 | 16.1 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 46.9% | 33.3% | 2.1 | 76.9% | 21.4% | |
| 21 | Valentino Simon | F | Sr | 6'6" | 30-8 | 12.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 53.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 64.9% | 17.0% | |
| 2 | Julian Margrave | F | Sr | 6'10" | 20-0 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 47.4% | 31.7% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 25.3% | |
| 12 | Aidan Skradis | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 36.7% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 0 | Benji Nelson | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Brandon Orgilbold | G | — | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Deng Mayar | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Isaac Ondekane | C | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Rob Matos | G | Jr | 5'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jaylen Petty | G | Fr | 6'1" | 33-22 | 30.4 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 53.3% | 37.5% | 5.6 | 77.1% | 19.1% | |
| 3 | LeJuan Watts | F | Jr | 6'6" | 33-28 | 27.3 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 47.5% | 32.1% | 2.4 | 76.9% | 29.2% | |
| 15 | JT Toppin | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-25 | 34.8 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 56.7% | 28.1% | 2.3 | 57.9% | 36.2% | |
| 1 | Tyeree Bryan | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-13 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 45.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 9 | Luke Bamgboye | F | So | 6'11" | 21-12 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 50.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 71.1% | 16.7% | |
| 6 | Leon Horner | G | So | 6'4" | 23-0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 0.5 | 86.7% | 19.0% | |
| 5 | Josiah Moseley | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 71.6% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 36.4% | 20.3% | |
| 8 | Nolan Groves | G | Fr | 6'5" | 21-2 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 23.5% | 0.8 | 58.3% | 11.6% | |
| 13 | Marial Akuentok | F | Fr | 6'11" | 15-1 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 54.2% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 30.8% | 15.9% | |
| 10 | Jack Francis | G | Sr | 6'3" | 13-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 8.9% | |
| 21 | LaTrell Hoover | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lance Waddles | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 55.6% | 38.0% | 6.2 | 66.7% | 25.4% | |
| 32 | Tony Osburn | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-28 | 32.8 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 53.3% | 36.8% | 6.3 | 78.6% | 20.2% | |
| 5 | Ja'Sean Glover | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-8 | 25.9 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 49.2% | 28.3% | 3.2 | 86.7% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | Grant Stubblefield | G | Jr | 6'1" | 26-22 | 28.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 55.9% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 77.6% | 19.0% | |
| 11 | Paul Djobet | G | Jr | 6'7" | 20-18 | 29.9 | 17.4 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 58.0% | 41.5% | 4.1 | 72.0% | 33.0% | |
| 22 | Kamryn Thomas | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-14 | 20.8 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 48.6% | 34.6% | 1.9 | 62.2% | 15.9% | |
| 44 | Brock Scholl | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-9 | 14.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 44.8% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 71.1% | 17.8% | |
| 15 | Christian Richardson | C | Sr | 7'1" | 27-16 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 59.7% | 23.7% | |
| 25 | Khamani Cooper | G | Jr | 6'4" | 26-9 | 16.1 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 46.9% | 33.3% | 2.1 | 76.9% | 21.4% | |
| 21 | Valentino Simon | F | Sr | 6'6" | 30-8 | 12.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 53.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 64.9% | 17.0% | |
| 2 | Julian Margrave | F | Sr | 6'10" | 20-0 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 47.4% | 31.7% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 25.3% | |
| 12 | Aidan Skradis | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 36.7% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 0 | Benji Nelson | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Brandon Orgilbold | G | — | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Deng Mayar | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Isaac Ondekane | C | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Rob Matos | G | Jr | 5'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | N Dakota St | N | L 50–74 | +8.0 | L−16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 73.8 | 109.2 | 67.8 |
| Mar 6 | South Dakota | N | W 76–62 | −2.0 | W+12.0 | 151.5 | U138 | 117.4 | 95.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 28 | St Thomas | A | L 53–68 | +11.5 | L−3.5 | 159.5 | U121 | 81.3 | 104.3 | 65.2 |
| Feb 25 | South Dakota | A | L 72–89 | −1.5 | L−18.5 | 153.5 | O161 | 98.3 | 121.5 | 73.3 |
| Feb 18 | Oral Roberts | H | W 80–71 | −6.5 | W+2.5 | 152.0 | U151 | 121.2 | 107.6 | 66.0 |
| Feb 15 | Denver | H | W 83–76 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 160.5 | U159 | 125.7 | 115.1 | 66.0 |
| Feb 12 | St Thomas | H | W 98–94 | +4.5 | W+8.5 | 156.5 | O192 | 132.5 | 127.1 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | N Dakota St | A | L 84–92 | +9.5 | W+1.5 | 144.5 | O176 | 125.2 | 137.2 | 67.1 |
| Feb 5 | North Dakota | A | L 73–76 | +2.0 | L−1.0 | 150.0 | U149 | 107.0 | 111.4 | 68.3 |
| Jan 31 | Denver | A | W 84–82 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 157.5 | O166 | 117.0 | 114.2 | 71.8 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #4Alabama | N | L 65–90 | +1.0 | L−24.0 | 164.5 | U155 | 93.8 | 129.9 | 69.3 |
| Mar 20 | #12Akron | N | W 91–71 | −6.5 | W+13.5 | 154.0 | O162 | 139.4 | 108.8 | 65.3 |
| Mar 12 | #7Iowa State | N | L 53–75 | +5.5 | L−16.5 | 143.5 | U128 | 81.9 | 115.9 | 64.7 |
| Mar 7 | BYU | A | L 76–82 | +3.0 | L−3.0 | 159.5 | U158 | 124.8 | 134.6 | 60.9 |
| Mar 3 | TCU | H | L 65–73 | −8.0 | L−16.0 | 148.5 | U138 | 101.6 | 114.1 | 64.0 |
| Feb 28 | #4Iowa State | A | W 82–73 | +9.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O155 | 127.1 | 113.1 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | Cincinnati | H | W 80–68 | −6.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | O148 | 131.5 | 111.8 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | Kansas St | H | W 100–72 | −12.5 | W+15.5 | 158.5 | O172 | 144.9 | 104.3 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | Arizona St | A | L 67–72 | −7.5 | L−12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 101.3 | 108.9 | 66.1 |
| Feb 14 | #1Arizona | A | W 78–75 OT | +9.5 | W+12.5 | 156.0 | U153 | 110.8 | 106.6 | 70.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
- Christian Anderson 37.3 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Donovan Atwell 34.7 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jazz Henderson Jr. 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- LaTrell Hoover no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.