CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUnited Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Omaha
Efficiency #257
2025-26: 16-17 · 9-9 conf
@
Texas Tech
Efficiency #21
2025-26: 23-11 · 12-7 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
66.3
win 7%
Projected
83.2
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: TTU −17.0 · total 149.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas Tech 67.5, Omaha 68.2 → 67.4 possessions
−2.1
Texas Tech offense vs Omaha defense
+8.2
Omaha offense vs Texas Tech defense
−4.9
Projected total
149.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas Tech offense vs Omaha defense
+8.2
Omaha offense vs Texas Tech defense
+4.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Texas Tech by 17.0
17.0
Omaha side ◂▸ Texas Tech side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.4 against a projected 149.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas Tech.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Omaha is the faster team (68.6, #166 of 365) and Texas Tech the slower (67.9, #206). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.5
model
Projected team totals
66.3 / 83.2
Omaha / Texas Tech
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#193
Omaha
67.5#250
Texas Tech

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageTexas Tech
Where Texas Tech scores: shooting
Texas Tech shoots an effective 56.1% (#21); Omaha allows 52.7% (#258). Expect about 54.8%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashTexas Tech
Style match: 3-point volume
Texas Tech takes 47.6% of its shots from three; Omaha lets opponents take 45.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.8% — both habits push the same way.
ClashOmaha
Style match: ball movement
Omaha creates off the dribble (assists on 46.9% of its baskets); Texas Tech breaks up passing offenses (assists on 43.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.9% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversTexas Tech
Texas Tech protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Texas Tech's offense.
AdvantageOmaha
Where Omaha scores: ball control
Omaha turns it over on 16.1% of possessions (#145); Texas Tech forces turnovers on 14.8% of opponent possessions (#304). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassOmaha
Omaha gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Omaha's offense.
Omaha has the ball
OffenseTexas Tech allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #139
49.7% #86
-0.4 pt/100
16.1% #145
14.8% #304
+2.0 pt/100
25.5% #331
30.6% #186
-2.0 pt/100
34.5% #196
31.4% #89
-0.3 pt/100
73.2% #164
—
+0.1 pt/100
Omaha net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100
Texas Tech has the ball
OffenseOmaha allowsvs D1 avg
56.1% #21
52.7% #258
+5.1 pt/100
15.8% #123
14.1% #333
+2.8 pt/100
33.2% #82
28.7% #90
+0.7 pt/100
27.7% #347
33.6% #142
-0.5 pt/100
71.5% #222
—
-0.1 pt/100
Texas Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Omahaoffense vsTexas Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Omaha shoots
Texas Tech allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.9%#16563.4%#33158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15538.1%#14039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.5%#7139.3%#21338.0%
Three34.0%#16932.1%#6733.7%
Texas Techoffense vsOmahadefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas Tech shoots
Omaha allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.5%#4664.6%#34658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3339.7%#18239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5641.6%#29138.0%
Three39.1%#432.9%#11433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Omaha
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#269 of 365
Off reb %
25.5%
#331
Def reb %
71.3%
#90
Turnover %
16.1%
#145
Forced TO %
14.1%
#333
FT rate
34.5%
#196
FT allowed
33.6%
#142
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.6
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Texas Tech
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#202 of 365
Off reb %
33.2%
#82
Def reb %
69.4%
#186
Turnover %
15.8%
#123
Forced TO %
14.8%
#304
FT rate
27.7%
#347
FT allowed
31.4%
#89
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+1.0

Texas Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#202 of 365) to Omaha’s −2.0 (#269).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Omaha2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Omaha's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
7Lance WaddlesGSr6'4"33-3329.412.84.82.11.455.6%38.0%6.266.7%25.4%
32Tony OsburnGSr6'2"29-2832.811.63.02.31.053.3%36.8%6.378.6%20.2%
5Ja'Sean GloverGSr6'5"31-825.911.64.02.52.049.2%28.3%3.286.7%27.5%
3Grant StubblefieldGJr6'1"26-2228.59.33.13.31.655.9%33.3%1.577.6%19.0%
11Paul DjobetGJr6'7"20-1829.917.46.61.92.458.0%41.5%4.172.0%33.0%
22Kamryn ThomasFSr6'8"28-1420.84.73.50.91.148.6%34.6%1.962.2%15.9%
44Brock SchollFFr6'8"33-914.54.13.30.20.344.8%25.0%0.171.1%17.8%
15Christian RichardsonCSr7'1"27-1615.77.43.00.01.172.7%—0.059.7%23.7%
25Khamani CooperGJr6'4"26-916.14.81.01.31.046.9%33.3%2.176.9%21.4%
21Valentino SimonFSr6'6"30-812.53.73.10.60.453.6%0.0%0.164.9%17.0%
2Julian MargraveFSr6'10"20-09.83.90.80.30.347.4%31.7%3.0100.0%25.3%
12Aidan SkradisGSo6'4"12-07.71.20.80.30.336.7%25.0%1.0100.0%12.9%
0Benji NelsonFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
20Brandon OrgilboldG—6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Deng MayarFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Isaac OndekaneCSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Rob MatosGJr5'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
OmahaTexas Tech
Efficiency
106.6
117.7
111.5
103.2
68.2
67.5
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
56.1%
53.0%
53.9%
34.0%
39.1%
73.2%
71.5%
34.5%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
16.1%
15.8%
14.1%
14.8%
25.5%
33.2%
28.7%
30.6%
9.1%
8.9%
10.5%
7.7%
Style
40.9%
47.6%
41.6%
36.6%
10.2%
8.6%
46.9%
55.0%
30.1%
20.5%
Roster
3.49
2.40
6'5.3"
6'5.8"
—
63.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Omaha
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Omaha's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas Tech
Returning minutes: 63.4%Returning production: 60.4%
Lost
  • Christian Anderson 37.3 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Donovan Atwell 34.7 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jazz Henderson Jr. 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • LaTrell Hoover no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.