CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceDahlberg Arena, Missoula, MT

South Dakota

Efficiency #292

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf

Montana

Efficiency #207

2025-26: 18-16 · 12-9 conf

Tue, Dec 8 · 7:00 PM ET

73.5

win 25%

Projected

81.4

win 75%

No line posted yet.

Model: MONT −7.9 · total 154.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Montana 69.8, South Dakota 70.0 → 71.5 possessions

+6.8

Montana offense vs South Dakota defense

+1.8

South Dakota offense vs Montana defense

−2.0

Projected total

154.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Montana offense vs South Dakota defense

+1.8

South Dakota offense vs Montana defense

+2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Montana by 7.9

7.9

South Dakota side ◂▸ Montana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 154.8 against a projected 154.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Montana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Dakota is the faster team (71.4, #36 of 365) and Montana the slower (71.1, #48). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.9

model

Projected team totals

73.5 / 81.4

South Dakota / Montana

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.0#47

South Dakota

69.8#67

Montana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMontana

Where Montana scores: shooting

Montana shoots an effective 55.8% (#23); South Dakota allows 54.5% (#318). Expect about 55.6%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.1 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Montana averages 71.1 possessions per 40, South Dakota 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassMontana

Montana gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.5% is worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions against Montana's offense.

AdvantageSouth Dakota

Where South Dakota scores: ball control

South Dakota turns it over on 16.6% of possessions (#172); Montana forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#326). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Montana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect South Dakota at about 35.7% of its shots from three, Montana about 35.3%.

South Dakota has the ball

OffenseMontana allowsvs D1 avg

49.9% #239

50.5% #129

-1.6 pt/100

16.6% #172

14.3% #326

+2.1 pt/100

28.7% #242

29.6% #143

-1.0 pt/100

45.2% #4

32.6% #120

+0.4 pt/100

74.2% #123

—

+0.2 pt/100

South Dakota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100

Montana has the ball

OffenseSouth Dakota allowsvs D1 avg

55.8% #23

54.5% #318

+6.1 pt/100

19.6% #340

15.9% #227

-1.2 pt/100

20.7% #363

30.3% #172

-4.2 pt/100

36.8% #135

31.0% #83

-0.2 pt/100

77.3% #27

—

+0.4 pt/100

Montana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

South Dakotaoffense vsMontanadefense

Share of shots by zone

South Dakota shoots

44.5

4.7

14.6

36.2

Montana allows

38.3

9.0

15.3

37.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.5%#212	59.9%#221	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.4%#324	36.6%#103	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#236	38.5%#175	38.0%
Three	32.3%#264	32.3%#74	33.7%

Montanaoffense vsSouth Dakotadefense

Share of shots by zone

Montana shoots

37.3

7.1

13.9

41.7

South Dakota allows

48.5

6.5

14.9

30.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.5%#83	61.5%#286	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.3%#60	44.8%#290	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.9%#8	40.2%#252	38.0%
Three	36.6%#38	34.5%#219	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

South Dakota

+2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#60 of 365

Off reb %

28.7%

#242

Def reb %

69.7%

#172

Turnover %

16.6%

#172

Forced TO %

15.9%

#227

FT rate

45.2%

FT allowed

31.0%

#83

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn+2.6

Foul shots allowed+1.1

Montana

−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#348 of 365

Off reb %

20.7%

#363

Def reb %

70.4%

#143

Turnover %

19.6%

#340

Forced TO %

14.3%

#326

FT rate

36.8%

#135

FT allowed

32.6%

#120

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.6

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.7

South Dakota has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.8 (#60 of 365) to Montana’s −5.2 (#348).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

South Dakota2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Uzziah Buntyn	G	Fr	6'1"	31-25	30.3	12.1	2.8	3.5	2.3	44.6%	27.7%	3.6	84.4%	24.5%
12	Isaac Bruns	G	Jr	6'5"	20-20	30.9	20.8	5.1	1.3	1.9	49.5%	39.2%	3.7	84.3%	36.2%
4	Vince Buzelis	G	Fr	6'4"	25-9	22.7	7.1	4.0	1.4	1.7	55.7%	28.6%	1.1	75.8%	18.7%
21	Ethan Kizer	F	So	6'5"	32-3	15.2	4.0	1.6	0.2	0.3	51.4%	33.7%	3.2	50.0%	15.6%
13	Silas Bennion	G	Sr	6'1"	16-10	28.9	4.8	2.7	3.0	1.2	41.2%	27.5%	2.5	80.0%	12.7%
10	Evan Anderson	G	Fr	6'4"	27-21	15.5	2.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	58.8%	38.1%	0.8	75.0%	10.4%
11	Jesse McIntosh	G	Fr	6'7"	20-1	17.6	7.5	3.5	1.4	0.9	48.4%	29.8%	2.9	82.4%	25.1%
34	Jake Brack	F	Jr	6'9"	25-1	13.6	2.2	2.5	0.4	0.5	57.1%	—	0.0	56.0%	9.6%
2	Shey Eberwein	G	So	6'5"	13-6	18.8	7.7	1.8	1.7	1.6	48.5%	26.7%	1.2	70.6%	24.6%
2	Trent Hudgens	G	Sr	6'0"	14-0	11.9	3.0	1.1	1.3	1.1	38.4%	21.4%	1.0	90.0%	21.2%
35	Caleb Kizer	F	Sr	6'7"	9-0	5.4	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.3	45.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	18.3%
32	Ashton Smith	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	4.5	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.3	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	13.6%
23	Porter Ihnen	G	Fr	6'6"	4-0	6.0	5.0	3.3	0.3	0.3	105.6%	100.0%	0.3	50.0%	24.1%
25	Jalen Hayes	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Jonah Funk	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Josiah Dotzler	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Luke Bruns	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Montana2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Thompson	G	Fr	6'6"	33-33	29.3	8.4	4.0	1.3	1.2	58.9%	40.1%	5.2	80.6%	15.5%
32	Te'Jon Sawyer	F	Sr	6'8"	34-33	27.9	11.4	5.4	1.1	1.7	63.6%	35.8%	2.8	69.6%	21.3%
24	Kenyon Aguino	F	Fr	6'7"	34-34	23.6	8.4	4.2	1.5	1.2	57.9%	30.3%	1.0	71.8%	19.2%
8	Tyler Isaak	G	Jr	6'4"	34-17	22.4	6.1	2.8	2.3	0.9	50.0%	31.0%	2.5	85.3%	15.6%
3	Brooklyn Hicks	G	Jr	6'3"	34-8	22.1	9.0	3.8	0.9	1.0	55.7%	36.8%	3.4	70.0%	22.4%
11	Grant Kepley	G	So	6'4"	28-10	21.4	6.2	2.7	2.8	1.9	46.7%	30.0%	1.8	68.1%	21.2%
1	Trae Taylor	F	Sr	6'9"	29-0	8.3	2.2	1.6	0.1	0.4	67.5%	—	0.0	44.0%	14.7%
10	Connor Dick	G	So	6'3"	23-0	10.4	2.7	1.8	0.3	0.6	45.2%	23.5%	0.7	77.4%	16.4%
2	Chase Henderson	G	So	6'0"	19-0	7.3	2.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	51.3%	33.3%	0.8	81.8%	22.4%
5	Amari Jedkins	F	Jr	6'7"	23-1	5.3	1.3	1.1	0.0	0.1	51.9%	33.3%	0.5	60.0%	14.4%
13	Courtney Anderson Jr.	G	So	6'5"	10-0	11.3	5.7	1.4	0.2	0.7	71.4%	46.7%	3.0	77.8%	22.5%
7	Kadyn Betts	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	6.6	3.1	1.1	0.2	1.0	71.9%	62.5%	0.9	83.3%	26.7%
22	Luke Moxon	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Dakota2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Uzziah Buntyn	G	Fr	6'1"	31-25	30.3	12.1	2.8	3.5	2.3	44.6%	27.7%	3.6	84.4%	24.5%
12	Isaac Bruns	G	Jr	6'5"	20-20	30.9	20.8	5.1	1.3	1.9	49.5%	39.2%	3.7	84.3%	36.2%
4	Vince Buzelis	G	Fr	6'4"	25-9	22.7	7.1	4.0	1.4	1.7	55.7%	28.6%	1.1	75.8%	18.7%
21	Ethan Kizer	F	So	6'5"	32-3	15.2	4.0	1.6	0.2	0.3	51.4%	33.7%	3.2	50.0%	15.6%
13	Silas Bennion	G	Sr	6'1"	16-10	28.9	4.8	2.7	3.0	1.2	41.2%	27.5%	2.5	80.0%	12.7%
10	Evan Anderson	G	Fr	6'4"	27-21	15.5	2.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	58.8%	38.1%	0.8	75.0%	10.4%
11	Jesse McIntosh	G	Fr	6'7"	20-1	17.6	7.5	3.5	1.4	0.9	48.4%	29.8%	2.9	82.4%	25.1%
34	Jake Brack	F	Jr	6'9"	25-1	13.6	2.2	2.5	0.4	0.5	57.1%	—	0.0	56.0%	9.6%
2	Shey Eberwein	G	So	6'5"	13-6	18.8	7.7	1.8	1.7	1.6	48.5%	26.7%	1.2	70.6%	24.6%
2	Trent Hudgens	G	Sr	6'0"	14-0	11.9	3.0	1.1	1.3	1.1	38.4%	21.4%	1.0	90.0%	21.2%
35	Caleb Kizer	F	Sr	6'7"	9-0	5.4	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.3	45.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	18.3%
32	Ashton Smith	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	4.5	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.3	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	13.6%
23	Porter Ihnen	G	Fr	6'6"	4-0	6.0	5.0	3.3	0.3	0.3	105.6%	100.0%	0.3	50.0%	24.1%
25	Jalen Hayes	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Jonah Funk	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Josiah Dotzler	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Luke Bruns	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

South Dakota

Against the spread

Season

16-13

Home

9-5

Road

6-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-17

Home

6-8

Road

6-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.0

Under 2 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	OmahaAdjEM #257	N	L 62–76	+2.0	L−12.0	151.5	U138	95.8	117.4	64.7
Feb 28	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	H	W 75–70	+3.0	W+8.0	151.0	U145	108.0	100.8	69.4
Feb 25	OmahaAdjEM #257	H	W 89–72	+1.5	W+18.5	153.5	O161	121.5	98.3	73.3
Feb 21	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	A	L 62–67	−1.0	L−6.0	151.5	U129	85.4	92.2	72.6
Feb 19	DenverAdjEM #243	A	L 70–90	+6.0	L−14.0	162.5	U160	107.3	137.9	65.3
Feb 11	North DakotaAdjEM #291	H	L 71–72	−1.5	L−2.5	156.5	U143	106.2	107.7	66.8
Feb 7	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	W 68–67	+11.5	W+12.5	157.5	U135	97.6	96.1	69.7
Feb 4	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	A	W 82–75 OT	−2.0	W+5.0	156.0	O157	102.0	93.3	80.4
Jan 31	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	H	L 84–89 OT	+9.0	W+4.0	152.5	O173	113.4	120.1	74.1
Jan 29	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	H	W 77–69	−3.0	W+5.0	154.5	U146	108.7	97.4	70.8

Montana

Against the spread

Season

15-14-1

Home

7-5-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −3.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-6

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.2

Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	IdahoAdjEM #156	N	L 66–77	+3.5	L−7.5	146.5	U143	91.6	106.8	72.1
Mar 10	Portland StAdjEM #145	N	W 75–72	+3.5	W+6.5	145.0	O147	101.9	97.8	73.6
Mar 9	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	N	W 95–89	+4.5	W+10.5	152.5	O184	127.4	119.3	74.6
Mar 2	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 57–85	+5.5	L−22.5	155.0	U142	77.8	116.0	73.3
Feb 28	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	W 74–68	+1.0	W+7.0	140.0	O142	103.4	95.0	71.5
Feb 26	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	H	W 81–73	−8.0	P0.0	161.5	U154	112.5	101.4	72.0
Feb 21	Weber StAdjEM #203	A	L 72–92	+2.5	L−17.5	152.0	O164	106.6	136.2	67.5
Feb 19	Idaho StAdjEM #253	A	L 69–73	−1.0	L−5.0	150.0	U142	101.8	107.7	67.8
Feb 14	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	L 71–82	−2.0	L−13.0	146.0	O153	107.5	124.2	66.0
Feb 7	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	W 73–68	−2.5	W+2.5	151.0	U141	101.2	94.3	72.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

South DakotaMontana

Efficiency

105.9

106.8

112.6

108.3

70.0

69.8

—

Shooting

49.9%

55.8%

50.7%

56.5%

32.3%

36.6%

74.2%

77.3%

45.2%

36.8%

Ball control & glass

16.6%

19.6%

15.9%

14.3%

28.7%

20.7%

30.3%

29.6%

9.9%

11.3%

9.4%

8.7%

Style

35.9%

41.8%

43.6%

41.8%

9.8%

10.3%

46.1%

55.1%

31.4%

30.6%

Roster

2.01

2.40

6'3.9"

6'5.5"

72.2%

84.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

South Dakota

Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 64.9%

Lost

Jordan Crawford 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Cameron Fens 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to North Carolina

Added

Josiah Dotzler no D1 minutes last season
Luke Bruns no D1 minutes last season
Jalen Hayes no D1 minutes last season
Jonah Funk no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Montana

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 75.9%

Lost

Money Williams 31.2 mpg, 20.6 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Luke Moxon no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.