CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameKohl Center, Madison, WI
Purdue
Efficiency #9
2025-26: 30-9 · 17-7 conf
@
Wisconsin
Efficiency #28
2025-26: 24-11 · 16-7 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
78.2
win 51%
Projected
77.9
win 49%
No line posted yet.
Model: PUR −0.2 · total 156.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Wisconsin 69.2, Purdue 66.3 → 67.2 possessions
−2.4
Wisconsin offense vs Purdue defense
+3.1
Purdue offense vs Wisconsin defense
+7.2
Projected total
156.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Wisconsin offense vs Purdue defense
+3.1
Purdue offense vs Wisconsin defense
−7.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Purdue by 0.2
0.2
Purdue side ◂▸ Wisconsin side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wisconsin.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wisconsin is the faster team (69.0, #151 of 365) and Purdue the slower (65.2, #324). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.1
model
Projected team totals
78.2 / 77.9
Purdue / Wisconsin
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.3#329
Purdue
69.2#107
Wisconsin
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantagePurdue
Where Purdue scores: shooting
Purdue shoots an effective 57.6% (#10); Wisconsin allows 51.4% (#178). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversPurdue
Purdue protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 13.4% is worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions for Purdue's offense.
AdvantageWisconsin
Where Wisconsin scores: ball control
Wisconsin turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#4); Purdue forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#263). Expect about 13.6%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashWisconsin
Style match: 3-point volume
Wisconsin takes 52.1% of its shots from three; Purdue lets opponents take 43.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 52.4% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Wisconsin, Purdue) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Purdue at about 40.8% of its shots from three, Wisconsin about 52.4%.
GlassPurdue
Purdue owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.6% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Purdue's offense.
Purdue has the ball
OffenseWisconsin allowsvs D1 avg
57.6% #10
51.4% #178
+5.3 pt/100
13.7% #17
14.3% #328
+4.1 pt/100
36.4% #19
28.2% #74
+1.9 pt/100
28.6% #336
29.8% #56
-0.8 pt/100
74.6% #99
—
+0.2 pt/100
Purdue net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.8 pts/100
Wisconsin has the ball
OffensePurdue allowsvs D1 avg
54.5% #52
52.4% #232
+3.4 pt/100
12.8% #4
15.3% #263
+3.9 pt/100
29.1% #232
27.1% #39
-1.5 pt/100
31.5% #267
25.5% #9
-0.9 pt/100
78.8% #6
—
+0.6 pt/100
Wisconsin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersPurdueoffense vsWisconsindefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
28.0
8.8
23.5
39.7
Wisconsin allows
34.2
7.5
18.0
40.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#1 | 58.9%#187 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#70 | 47.1%#333 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.2%#13 | 41.4%#286 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#11 | 33.4%#151 | 33.7% |
Wisconsinoffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Wisconsin shoots
33.3
6.0
9.1
51.6
Purdue allows
28.2
7.0
20.0
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#99 | 62.6%#316 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.7%#27 | 44.3%#276 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.6%#126 | 43.0%#329 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#50 | 34.1%#192 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersPurdue
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#20 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#19
Def reb %
72.9%
#39
Turnover %
13.7%
#17
Forced TO %
15.3%
#263
FT rate
28.6%
#336
FT allowed
25.5%
#9
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+2.5
Wisconsin
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#108 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#232
Def reb %
71.8%
#74
Turnover %
12.8%
#4
Forced TO %
14.3%
#328
FT rate
31.5%
#267
FT allowed
29.8%
#56
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers−1.7
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Purdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#20 of 365) to Wisconsin’s +1.9 (#108).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Purdue2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Wisconsin2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nolan Winter | F | Jr | 7'0" | 31-30 | 30.7 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 62.6% | 32.6% | 3.1 | 74.2% | 20.5% | |
| 7 | Andrew Rohde | G | Sr | 6'6" | 34-34 | 26.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 47.8% | 31.8% | 3.9 | 77.8% | 15.0% | |
| 32 | Aleksas Bieliauskas | F | Fr | 6'10" | 35-28 | 20.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.8% | 34.6% | 2.3 | 63.3% | 15.4% | |
| 22 | Austin Rapp | F | So | 6'10" | 30-12 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 54.6% | 36.3% | 5.3 | 85.4% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Braeden Carrington | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 18.0 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 57.5% | 40.1% | 5.1 | 77.2% | 23.9% | |
| 5 | Jack Janicki | G | So | 6'5" | 26-1 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 42.3% | 27.7% | 1.8 | 60.0% | 11.0% | |
| 23 | Will Garlock | F | Fr | 7'0" | 30-0 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 72.2% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 10.3% | |
| 13 | Hayden Jones | G | Fr | 6'6" | 27-1 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 63.5% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 54.5% | 15.2% | |
| 4 | Zach Kinziger | G | Fr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Jack Robison | F | So | 6'6" | 16-0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 93.8% | 75.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 23.7% | |
| 18 | Riccardo Greppi | F | So | 6'10" | 14-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 28.3% | |
| 15 | Isaac Gard | G | Sr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 35.1% | |
| 6 | Elijah Gray | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Purdue2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Purdue
Against the spread
Season
17-21-1
Home
5-12
Road
6-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −0.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite, 1 push
Over / under
Season
22-17
Home
12-5
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
| Mar 12 | Northwestern | N | W 81–68 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 136.3 | 114.4 | 59.4 |
| Mar 7 | Wisconsin | H | L 93–97 | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 141.5 | 147.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Northwestern | A | W 70–66 | −10.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 121.8 | 114.9 | 57.5 |
Wisconsin
Against the spread
Season
20-14-1
Home
10-6-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
22-13
Home
10-7
Road
8-3
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.1
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #12High Point | N | L 82–83 | −10.0 | L−11.0 | 161.5 | O165 | 112.3 | 113.7 | 73.0 |
| Mar 14 | #3Michigan | N | L 65–68 | +12.5 | W+9.5 | 161.5 | U133 | 96.2 | 100.7 | 67.5 |
| Mar 13 | #9Illinois | N | W 91–88 OT | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 157.0 | O179 | 121.0 | 117.0 | 75.2 |
| Mar 12 | Washington | N | W 85–82 | −6.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O167 | 128.5 | 124.0 | 66.2 |
| Mar 7 | #15Purdue | A | W 97–93 | +9.5 | W+13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 147.6 | 141.5 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Maryland | H | W 78–45 | −14.5 | W+18.5 | 153.5 | U123 | 135.0 | 77.9 | 57.8 |
| Feb 28 | Washington | A | W 90–73 | −2.5 | W+14.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 127.7 | 103.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 25 | Oregon | A | L 71–85 | −5.5 | L−19.5 | 153.0 | O156 | 102.5 | 122.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 22 | Iowa | H | W 84–71 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.0 | O155 | 130.5 | 110.3 | 64.4 |
| Feb 17 | Ohio State | A | L 69–86 | +1.0 | L−16.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 100.3 | 125.0 | 68.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homePurdueWisconsin
Efficiency
122.7
118.0
103.6
105.0
66.3
69.2
—
—
Shooting
57.6%
54.5%
57.7%
54.7%
38.3%
36.2%
74.6%
78.8%
28.6%
31.5%
Ball control & glass
13.7%
12.8%
15.3%
14.3%
36.4%
29.1%
27.1%
28.2%
8.0%
6.6%
6.4%
12.5%
Style
40.2%
52.1%
40.7%
36.2%
9.4%
12.9%
65.6%
57.3%
29.8%
28.3%
Roster
1.73
2.59
6'5.8"
6'8.3"
42.3%
68.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPurdue
Returning minutes: 42.3%Returning production: 32.3%
Lost
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
- Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
- Sam King no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.
Wisconsin
Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.3%
Lost
- John Blackwell 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg · transferred to Duke
- Nick Boyd 32.0 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Elijah Gray no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Mar 7 | 2025-26 | Wisconsin 97 – 93 Purdue |
| Sat, Jan 3 | 2025-26 | Purdue 89 – 73 Wisconsin |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.