CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Queens
Efficiency #191
2025-26: 21-14 · 16-5 conf
@
Colorado St
Efficiency #88
2025-26: 21-13 · 12-10 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
74.8
win 26%
Projected
82.3
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: CSU −7.5 · total 157.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado St 65.5, Queens 69.7 → 66.9 possessions
−3.1
Colorado St offense vs Queens defense
+7.8
Queens offense vs Colorado St defense
+4.1
Projected total
157.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Colorado St offense vs Queens defense
+7.8
Queens offense vs Colorado St defense
−4.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Colorado St by 7.5
7.5
Queens side ◂▸ Colorado St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 157.0 against a projected 157.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Queens is the faster team (70.6, #68 of 365) and Colorado St the slower (64.4, #345). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.1
model
Projected team totals
74.8 / 82.3
Queens / Colorado St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#68
Queens
65.5#358
Colorado St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColorado St
Where Colorado St scores: shooting
Colorado St shoots an effective 57.5% (#12); Queens allows 54.6% (#319). Expect about 56.6%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageQueens
Where Queens scores: shooting
Queens shoots an effective 56.4% (#15); Colorado St allows 52.9% (#263). Expect about 55.1%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Colorado St averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Queens 70.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversQueens
Queens protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Queens's offense.
ClashQueens
Style match: 3-point volume
Queens takes 46.5% of its shots from three; Colorado St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.4% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Colorado St, Queens's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Queens at about 47.4% of its shots from three, Colorado St about 47.2%.
Queens has the ball
OffenseColorado St allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #15
52.9% #263
+5.4 pt/100
14.8% #54
15.5% #253
+2.4 pt/100
30.2% #190
29.3% #123
-0.4 pt/100
35.4% #167
34.2% #155
-0.0 pt/100
74.9% #88
—
+0.2 pt/100
Queens net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.6 pts/100
Colorado St has the ball
OffenseQueens allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #12
54.6% #319
+7.5 pt/100
18.5% #296
15.1% #277
+0.1 pt/100
30.0% #198
33.6% #308
+0.8 pt/100
39.4% #69
38.1% #263
+0.5 pt/100
77.0% #33
—
+0.4 pt/100
Colorado St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Queensoffense vsColorado Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Queens shoots
Colorado St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3259.3%#20358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.8%#4248.7%#34739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9540.6%#26338.0%
Three35.7%#7434.2%#19633.7%
Colorado Stoffense vsQueensdefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado St shoots
Queens allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim66.1%#1558.9%#18658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.0%#33150.5%#35739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4537.8%#15338.0%
Three38.6%#936.5%#32533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Queens
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#251 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#190
Def reb %
66.4%
#308
Turnover %
14.8%
#54
Forced TO %
15.1%
#277
FT rate
35.4%
#167
FT allowed
38.1%
#263
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Colorado St
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#190 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#198
Def reb %
70.7%
#123
Turnover %
18.5%
#296
Forced TO %
15.5%
#253
FT rate
39.4%
#69
FT allowed
34.2%
#155
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Colorado St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.3 (#190 of 365) to Queens’s −1.3 (#251).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Queens2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Chris AshbyGSr6'2"35-3530.711.62.01.50.753.5%37.5%8.587.8%20.5%
1Nasir MannGSr6'5"35-3530.413.35.72.81.654.6%31.8%3.178.0%24.1%
24Yoav BermanGSo6'6"35-3029.212.33.93.61.748.3%29.7%4.278.7%25.2%
22Carson SchwiegerFSo6'8"34-2724.610.13.10.80.660.7%40.9%6.669.0%20.4%
6Avantae ParkerFJr6'9"35-3422.111.15.31.21.668.2%38.5%0.461.7%25.1%
0Jordan WatfordGFr6'5"35-820.811.82.63.91.961.8%37.5%0.777.8%29.0%
9Maban JabrielFSo6'9"35-219.87.73.81.00.961.6%43.2%3.277.4%19.9%
7Gus LarsonFSr6'10"35-111.83.12.10.70.755.3%18.8%0.557.4%16.8%
3Isaiah HenryGFr6'4"26-07.93.01.70.40.555.0%25.0%0.673.3%22.2%
5Kam ClarkFJr6'7"26-37.31.81.00.30.335.1%11.1%1.078.9%19.1%
4Reid CelestinGJr6'6"15-02.90.20.70.20.220.0%0.0%0.125.0%12.9%
12Tyler CriderGFr6'0"8-01.30.00.00.10.00.0%0.0%0.4—22.6%
25Jacob BrandlyGFr6'6"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
35Colby ChristiansenGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Danzelle Bullock ColesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Jimma JamesGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Matthew WalterGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Saif-Allah ZatariGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Seamus WilsonGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
QueensColorado St
Efficiency
113.5
114.2
114.4
109.6
69.7
65.5
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
57.5%
58.9%
57.1%
35.7%
38.6%
74.9%
77.0%
35.4%
39.4%
Ball control & glass
14.8%
18.5%
15.1%
15.5%
30.2%
30.0%
33.6%
29.3%
9.0%
10.5%
9.4%
9.0%
Style
46.5%
49.1%
43.6%
35.6%
13.2%
11.1%
54.9%
62.9%
32.2%
30.9%
Roster
2.73
2.73
6'6.2"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Queens
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.