CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDraddy Gymnasium, Riverdale, NY
Loyola MD
Efficiency #313
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-11 conf
@
Manhattan
Efficiency #328
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
76.1
win 40%
Projected
79.0
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: MAN −2.9 · total 155.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Manhattan 68.7, Loyola MD 68.8 → 69.2 possessions
+1.9
Manhattan offense vs Loyola MD defense
+1.9
Loyola MD offense vs Manhattan defense
+3.0
Projected total
155.1
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Manhattan offense vs Loyola MD defense
+1.9
Loyola MD offense vs Manhattan defense
−3.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Manhattan by 2.9
2.9
Loyola MD side ◂▸ Manhattan side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.0 against a projected 155.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Manhattan.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Loyola MD is the faster team (68.1, #194 of 365) and Manhattan the slower (68.1, #195). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.1
model
Projected team totals
76.1 / 79.0
Loyola MD / Manhattan
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#134
Loyola MD
68.7#143
Manhattan

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Manhattan's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Loyola MD at about 44.8% of its shots from three, Manhattan about 37.6%.
AdvantageManhattan
Where Manhattan scores: ball control
Manhattan turns it over on 15.6% of possessions (#111); Loyola MD forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#265). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
Loyola MD has the ball
OffenseManhattan allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #219
53.9% #297
+1.2 pt/100
15.5% #105
16.7% #175
+1.0 pt/100
27.6% #279
37.0% #358
+0.7 pt/100
29.9% #312
25.7% #11
-1.0 pt/100
71.5% #223
—
-0.1 pt/100
Loyola MD net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100
Manhattan has the ball
OffenseLoyola MD allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #315
54.7% #321
-0.3 pt/100
15.6% #111
15.3% #265
+2.0 pt/100
28.6% #247
29.0% #103
-1.2 pt/100
34.0% #208
32.7% #123
-0.2 pt/100
79.6% #3
—
+0.6 pt/100
Manhattan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Loyola MDoffense vsManhattandefense
Share of shots by zone
Loyola MD shoots
Manhattan allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.6%#25158.5%#16658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.6%#4442.5%#23739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.1%#26242.7%#32638.0%
Three32.6%#25136.6%#33233.7%
Manhattanoffense vsLoyola MDdefense
Share of shots by zone
Manhattan shoots
Loyola MD allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.2%#36065.1%#35258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.8%#8552.3%#35939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.9%#3847.3%#36238.0%
Three32.0%#28032.8%#10633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Loyola MD
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#240 of 365
Off reb %
27.6%
#279
Def reb %
71.0%
#103
Turnover %
15.5%
#105
Forced TO %
15.3%
#265
FT rate
29.9%
#312
FT allowed
32.7%
#123
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Manhattan
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#168 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#247
Def reb %
63.0%
#358
Turnover %
15.6%
#111
Forced TO %
16.7%
#175
FT rate
34.0%
#208
FT allowed
25.7%
#11
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−2.0
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers0.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.4

Manhattan has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#168 of 365) to Loyola MD’s −1.1 (#240).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Loyola MD2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Braeden SpeedGSo6'3"32-3232.715.34.43.82.052.3%36.5%4.682.2%26.9%
3Jordan StiemkeGJr6'5"32-2827.59.93.11.40.948.6%33.7%5.181.1%22.1%
15Tyson CommanderGSr6'4"31-1723.54.12.61.11.254.8%40.8%1.672.2%11.9%
18Emmett AdairFFr6'9"27-1525.414.65.41.01.453.5%31.5%5.381.1%33.2%
22Sam SpringerFSo6'7"32-3116.84.92.20.60.750.0%35.1%2.368.3%18.2%
24Sebastien EmenaloGFr6'6"31-014.53.23.30.40.545.9%30.9%1.847.6%16.0%
2Troy Cicero Jr.GJr6'2"32-013.95.82.20.70.552.5%38.0%3.877.3%24.6%
1Carter Berg-McLeanGFr6'4"30-013.93.32.51.60.741.9%19.2%0.976.2%18.4%
7Jonas SirtautasFJr6'10"19-1219.36.53.60.60.963.3%14.3%0.747.9%18.7%
17Everett BarnesFFr6'9"25-58.51.51.60.30.351.5%40.0%0.220.0%13.6%
14Garrett BrennanGSr6'4"14-14.10.91.20.40.136.7%12.5%0.628.6%18.8%
13Ben MenkerGSo6'5"12-01.80.70.30.10.250.0%33.3%0.5—26.8%
5Peter SpositoGSr6'2"11-11.50.30.30.00.121.4%25.0%0.40.0%30.1%
8Goap KodiFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Loyola MDManhattan
Efficiency
105.6
105.7
114.0
115.7
68.8
68.7
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
47.9%
51.9%
47.8%
32.6%
32.0%
71.5%
79.6%
29.9%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
15.6%
15.3%
16.7%
27.6%
28.6%
29.0%
37.0%
8.7%
8.2%
8.3%
10.7%
Style
47.2%
37.1%
40.4%
41.4%
10.0%
11.1%
48.8%
49.6%
37.7%
28.1%
Roster
2.26
3.05
6'5.4"
6'4"
90.3%
7.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Loyola MD
Returning minutes: 90.3%Returning production: 86.5%
Lost
  • Jacob Theodosiou 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Duke
Added
  • Goap Kodi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Manhattan
Returning minutes: 7.4%Returning production: 5.3%
Lost
  • Jaden Winston 35.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Devin Dinkins 33.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fraser Roxburgh 30.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Terrance Jones 28.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anthony Isaac 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Marko Ljubicic 20.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ben Tweedy from Colgate · 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Josiah Sabino from Niagara · 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
  • Ognjen Stankovic from Akron · 3.4 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
  • Kevin Kearney from Saint Joseph's · 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
  • Liam McChesney from Creighton · 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
  • Jameson Borodawka no D1 minutes last season

Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.