CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSchollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX

Alabama St

Efficiency #324

2025-26: 10-22 · 7-12 conf

TCU

Efficiency #51

2025-26: 23-12 · 12-8 conf

Tue, Dec 8 · TBD

64.7

win 7%

Projected

81.9

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: TCU −17.2 · total 146.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: TCU 68.4, Alabama St 69.6 → 69.8 possessions

+3.1

TCU offense vs Alabama St defense

+4.2

Alabama St offense vs TCU defense

−9.0

Projected total

146.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

TCU offense vs Alabama St defense

+4.2

Alabama St offense vs TCU defense

+9.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

TCU by 17.2

17.2

Alabama St side ◂▸ TCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.5 against a projected 146.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help TCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama St is the faster team (71.3, #42 of 365) and TCU the slower (69.4, #117). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.6

model

Projected team totals

64.7 / 81.9

Alabama St / TCU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.6#75

Alabama St

68.4#173

TCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageAlabama St

Where Alabama St struggles: shooting

Alabama St shoots an effective 47.1% (#335); TCU allows 51.2% (#172). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversAlabama St

Alabama St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.4% is worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions against Alabama St's offense.

Pace

Track meet

TCU averages 69.4 possessions per 40, Alabama St 71.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseTCU

TCU's shot-blocking

TCU ranks #35 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Alabama St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageTCU

Where TCU scores: the offensive glass

TCU rebounds 34.0% of its own misses (#67); Alabama St lets opponents grab 31.5% of their own misses (#230). Expect about 33.4%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashAlabama St

Style clash: ball movement

Alabama St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.6% of its baskets); TCU allows assists on 61.4% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 55.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Alabama St has the ball

OffenseTCU allowsvs D1 avg

47.1% #335

51.2% #172

-3.5 pt/100

18.3% #287

19.6% #32

-3.3 pt/100

31.9% #128

29.1% #112

+0.2 pt/100

34.9% #185

30.5% #72

-0.3 pt/100

70.5% #254

—

-0.2 pt/100

Alabama St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.0 pts/100

TCU has the ball

OffenseAlabama St allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #221

52.2% #222

-0.1 pt/100

15.3% #87

18.7% #60

-0.5 pt/100

34.0% #67

31.5% #230

+1.9 pt/100

37.5% #112

42.3% #328

+0.7 pt/100

70.4% #257

—

-0.2 pt/100

TCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Alabama Stoffense vsTCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Alabama St shoots

38.1

5.0

17.4

39.4

TCU allows

38.4

6.4

16.8

38.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.4%#291	60.3%#242	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.9%#317	35.0%#58	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.3%#307	39.2%#206	38.0%
Three	31.8%#288	33.5%#158	33.7%

TCUoffense vsAlabama Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

TCU shoots

38.4

8.8

16.1

36.7

Alabama St allows

40.3

5.4

14.9

39.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#204	61.2%#275	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.8%#68	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#286	35.0%#79	38.0%
Three	33.2%#220	34.2%#194	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Alabama St

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#246 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#128

Def reb %

68.5%

#230

Turnover %

18.3%

#287

Forced TO %

18.7%

#60

FT rate

34.9%

#185

FT allowed

42.3%

#328

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−1.8

TCU

+6.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#10 of 365

Off reb %

34.0%

#67

Def reb %

70.9%

#112

Turnover %

15.3%

#87

Forced TO %

19.6%

#32

FT rate

37.5%

#112

FT allowed

30.5%

#72

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+2.0

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+1.2

TCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.5 (#10 of 365) to Alabama St’s −1.3 (#246).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Alabama St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Micah Simpson	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	32.7	13.9	3.8	3.6	2.6	43.8%	33.2%	6.9	76.5%	29.6%
11	Cameron Palesse	G	Jr	6'5"	32-31	27.7	5.5	3.9	1.9	0.9	42.2%	37.5%	1.3	64.0%	14.2%
24	Jerquarius Stanback	F	Fr	6'9"	32-32	24.6	8.8	5.8	0.7	1.5	52.9%	14.3%	0.7	67.8%	21.2%
0	Tyler Byrd	G	Jr	6'3"	31-12	24.1	10.3	3.3	1.2	1.4	51.4%	30.0%	2.6	77.4%	24.8%
20	Asjon Anderson	G	Sr	6'2"	28-20	26.6	14.2	2.2	3.2	3.0	42.8%	31.2%	6.1	83.0%	36.0%
1	Damarien Yates	G	Jr	6'7"	32-0	17.1	6.8	3.7	0.7	1.1	54.4%	34.5%	2.7	64.8%	23.2%
23	R'Chaun King	F	Fr	6'6"	29-17	12.8	4.9	2.4	0.3	0.8	59.5%	—	0.0	72.1%	20.1%
5	Tyler Mack	G	Sr	6'5"	16-0	20.9	5.9	3.3	0.9	0.8	46.8%	27.6%	4.8	50.0%	19.0%
4	Mario Andrews	C	Sr	6'6"	31-1	9.2	1.6	3.1	0.1	0.4	50.0%	20.0%	0.2	38.9%	12.3%
12	Tyler Mason	F	Jr	6'9"	22-1	11.9	5.0	2.3	0.1	0.4	56.3%	60.0%	0.5	40.6%	23.9%
25	JaSteven Walker	F	Jr	6'10"	16-14	15.8	4.6	3.3	0.4	0.7	47.0%	31.0%	1.8	62.5%	18.8%
3	Trey Miller	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	22.0	7.3	2.0	4.0	2.3	43.8%	42.9%	2.3	50.0%	23.7%
22	Kevin Alabi	F	So	6'7"	6-0	8.5	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.5	25.0%	—	0.0	14.3%	18.3%
13	Jordon Marshall	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.8	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.7	25.0%	0.0%	0.2	66.7%	21.1%
7	Damarion Bonds	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Damion Cox Jr.	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

TCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Brock Harding	G	Jr	6'0"	35-35	31.8	8.0	2.9	5.6	1.9	43.1%	28.4%	3.3	64.6%	19.4%
1	Jayden Pierre	G	Sr	6'0"	35-35	30.4	10.1	2.1	2.8	1.3	50.2%	35.1%	4.2	81.8%	20.7%
15	David Punch	F	So	6'7"	34-34	29.7	14.1	6.8	2.0	1.7	51.8%	23.9%	1.4	65.3%	28.3%
5	Micah Robinson	F	So	6'6"	35-13	26.9	10.9	4.7	1.7	1.3	46.9%	33.3%	3.9	75.9%	25.0%
24	Xavier Edmonds	F	Jr	6'8"	35-34	22.9	12.7	6.5	1.2	1.9	61.4%	43.6%	1.6	64.4%	30.3%
55	Tanner Toolson	G	Jr	6'5"	35-1	20.9	7.7	3.2	0.9	0.5	43.5%	29.1%	2.9	72.6%	23.1%
00	Jace Posey	G	So	6'5"	26-0	11.8	4.8	2.4	0.2	0.7	46.0%	15.4%	0.5	68.1%	26.2%
23	Vianney Salatchoum	C	Sr	6'10"	23-0	5.3	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.3	52.2%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.0%
7	Kayden Edwards	G	Fr	6'2"	13-0	6.8	3.5	0.7	0.6	0.4	57.9%	43.5%	1.8	25.0%	28.6%
8	RJ Jones	G	So	6'2"	8-0	7.1	2.9	0.5	0.9	0.4	55.0%	35.3%	2.1	50.0%	23.7%
6	Ashton Simmons	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.6	35.7%	25.0%	0.8	—	29.2%
32	Malick Diallo	C	So	6'9"	1-1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	—	—	0.0	—	14.8%
33	Trey Stuart	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	22.6%
22	Adam Stewart	C	So	6'11"	4-0	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.8%
30	Drew McElroy	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Alabama St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Micah Simpson	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	32.7	13.9	3.8	3.6	2.6	43.8%	33.2%	6.9	76.5%	29.6%
11	Cameron Palesse	G	Jr	6'5"	32-31	27.7	5.5	3.9	1.9	0.9	42.2%	37.5%	1.3	64.0%	14.2%
24	Jerquarius Stanback	F	Fr	6'9"	32-32	24.6	8.8	5.8	0.7	1.5	52.9%	14.3%	0.7	67.8%	21.2%
0	Tyler Byrd	G	Jr	6'3"	31-12	24.1	10.3	3.3	1.2	1.4	51.4%	30.0%	2.6	77.4%	24.8%
20	Asjon Anderson	G	Sr	6'2"	28-20	26.6	14.2	2.2	3.2	3.0	42.8%	31.2%	6.1	83.0%	36.0%
1	Damarien Yates	G	Jr	6'7"	32-0	17.1	6.8	3.7	0.7	1.1	54.4%	34.5%	2.7	64.8%	23.2%
23	R'Chaun King	F	Fr	6'6"	29-17	12.8	4.9	2.4	0.3	0.8	59.5%	—	0.0	72.1%	20.1%
5	Tyler Mack	G	Sr	6'5"	16-0	20.9	5.9	3.3	0.9	0.8	46.8%	27.6%	4.8	50.0%	19.0%
4	Mario Andrews	C	Sr	6'6"	31-1	9.2	1.6	3.1	0.1	0.4	50.0%	20.0%	0.2	38.9%	12.3%
12	Tyler Mason	F	Jr	6'9"	22-1	11.9	5.0	2.3	0.1	0.4	56.3%	60.0%	0.5	40.6%	23.9%
25	JaSteven Walker	F	Jr	6'10"	16-14	15.8	4.6	3.3	0.4	0.7	47.0%	31.0%	1.8	62.5%	18.8%
3	Trey Miller	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	22.0	7.3	2.0	4.0	2.3	43.8%	42.9%	2.3	50.0%	23.7%
22	Kevin Alabi	F	So	6'7"	6-0	8.5	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.5	25.0%	—	0.0	14.3%	18.3%
13	Jordon Marshall	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.8	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.7	25.0%	0.0%	0.2	66.7%	21.1%
7	Damarion Bonds	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Damion Cox Jr.	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Alabama St

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

4-4

Road

8-11

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-17-1

Home

2-6

Road

10-9

Last 10

3-6-1

avg vs total −6.2

Over in 1 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	N	L 65–77	−7.5	L−19.5	142.0	P142	92.4	109.4	70.4
Mar 5	GramblingAdjEM #290	H	L 63–65	−2.5	L−4.5	145.5	U128	89.0	91.9	70.8
Mar 3	SouthernAdjEM #286	H	L 64–71	+1.0	L−6.0	153.0	U135	90.2	100.0	71.0
Feb 28	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	A	W 89–88	+1.0	W+2.0	143.0	O177	132.5	131.0	67.2
Feb 21	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	A	L 63–76	−1.5	L−14.5	144.5	U139	90.2	108.8	69.8
Feb 19	BethuneAdjEM #260	A	L 71–82	+5.5	L−5.5	148.0	O153	99.4	114.8	71.4
Feb 16	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 92–55	−16.5	W+20.5	143.0	O147	127.3	76.1	72.3
Feb 14	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	H	W 79–61	−3.5	W+14.5	150.0	U140	109.1	84.2	72.4
Feb 9	SouthernAdjEM #286	A	L 68–69	+7.0	W+6.0	150.5	U137	103.2	104.7	65.9
Feb 7	GramblingAdjEM #290	A	L 47–57	+5.0	L−5.0	144.5	U104	74.4	90.3	63.1

TCU

Against the spread

Season

19-14-2

Home

9-10

Road

7-3

Last 10

6-2-2

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

15-20

Home

8-11

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 58–81	+12.0	L−11.0	140.5	U139	83.6	116.8	69.3
Mar 19	#8Ohio StateAdjEM #31	N	W 66–64	+2.0	W+4.0	146.0	U130	105.7	102.5	62.4
Mar 12	#14KansasAdjEM #25	N	L 73–78	+5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	97.9	104.6	74.6
Mar 11	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	W 95–88	−7.0	P0.0	158.0	O183	137.8	127.6	69.0
Mar 7	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	W 73–63	−2.5	W+7.5	139.5	U136	115.1	99.3	63.4
Mar 3	#10Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	W 73–65	+8.0	W+16.0	148.5	U138	114.1	101.6	64.0
Feb 28	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	W 77–68	−3.0	W+6.0	159.5	U145	106.8	94.3	72.1
Feb 24	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 90–78	−6.5	W+5.5	149.0	O168	120.1	104.1	75.0
Feb 21	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	W 60–54	−4.5	W+1.5	133.5	U114	99.6	89.6	60.3
Feb 17	UCFAdjEM #70	A	L 71–82	−1.0	L−12.0	155.0	U153	99.8	115.2	71.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Alabama StTCU

Efficiency

102.1

111.5

111.6

101.9

69.6

68.4

—

Shooting

47.1%

50.4%

46.8%

50.8%

31.8%

33.2%

70.5%

70.4%

34.9%

37.5%

Ball control & glass

18.3%

15.3%

18.7%

19.6%

31.9%

34.0%

31.5%

29.1%

10.5%

8.7%

11.0%

9.8%

Style

38.5%

36.8%

41.5%

45.4%

17.7%

17.2%

47.6%

57.3%

35.4%

30.5%

Roster

3.02

2.79

6'5"

6'4.1"

—

88.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Alabama St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

TCU

Returning minutes: 88.6%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Liutauras Lelevicius 23.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Clemson

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.