CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteMadison Square Garden, New York, NYJimmy V Classic

Houston

Efficiency #6

2025-26: 30-7 · 16-5 conf

Alabama

Efficiency #18

2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf

Tue, Dec 8 · TBD

78.9

win 62%

Projected

75.2

win 38%

No line posted yet.

Model: HOU −3.7 · total 154.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama 71.9, Houston 65.5 → 69.2 possessions

+1.8

Alabama offense vs Houston defense

+0.2

Houston offense vs Alabama defense

+3.9

Projected total

154.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Alabama offense vs Houston defense

+0.2

Houston offense vs Alabama defense

−3.9

Houston by 3.7

3.7

Houston side ◂▸ Alabama side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Houston the slower (64.8, #333). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.1

model

Projected team totals

78.9 / 75.2

Houston / Alabama

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#355

Houston

71.9#5

Alabama

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHouston

Where Houston scores: ball control

Houston turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#3); Alabama forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#359). Expect about 12.0%, 4.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Alabama averages 74.2 possessions per 40, Houston 64.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseHouston

Houston's shot-blocking

Houston ranks #38 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of Alabama's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassHouston

Houston owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.3% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Houston's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Houston's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Houston at about 37.8% of its shots from three, Alabama about 52.7%.

ClashAlabama

Style match: paint scoring

Alabama gets only 35.8% of its points in the paint; Houston protects the paint (38.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.6% — both habits push the same way.

Houston has the ball

OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg

51.9% #150

49.2% #73

-1.1 pt/100

12.8% #3

12.8% #359

+5.9 pt/100

35.7% #32

32.8% #295

+3.0 pt/100

26.3% #355

32.0% #103

-0.7 pt/100

77.3% #28

—

+0.4 pt/100

Houston net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100

Alabama has the ball

OffenseHouston allowsvs D1 avg

55.2% #34

46.2% #12

-0.4 pt/100

13.1% #9

20.6% #14

-0.4 pt/100

32.4% #111

30.3% #173

+0.8 pt/100

36.0% #150

38.7% #277

+0.3 pt/100

76.7% #39

—

+0.4 pt/100

Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Houstonoffense vsAlabamadefense

Share of shots by zone

Houston shoots

24.0

6.5

28.2

41.3

Alabama allows

36.8

7.0

21.2

35.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	67.4%#6	55.1%#64	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.9%#149	36.3%#98	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.1%#143	38.5%#175	38.0%
Three	34.7%#134	33.8%#170	33.7%

Alabamaoffense vsHoustondefense

Share of shots by zone

Alabama shoots

33.8

4.7

7.5

54.0

Houston allows

32.7

7.8

17.6

41.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#98	56.6%#104	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.6%#88	35.9%#90	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#10	29.8%#6	38.0%
Three	35.8%#66	31.6%#49	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Houston

+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#37 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#32

Def reb %

69.7%

#173

Turnover %

12.8%

Forced TO %

20.6%

#14

FT rate

26.3%

#355

FT allowed

38.7%

#277

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers+2.7

Foul shots drawn−2.2

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Alabama

+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365

Off reb %

32.4%

#111

Def reb %

67.2%

#295

Turnover %

13.1%

Forced TO %

12.8%

#359

FT rate

36.0%

#150

FT allowed

32.0%

#103

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Houston has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#37 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Houston2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Joseph Tugler	F	Jr	6'8"	37-36	23.5	8.4	5.3	1.3	1.3	57.8%	100.0%	0.0	70.7%	21.8%
1	Isiah Harwell	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	13.8	3.6	2.0	0.5	0.3	36.8%	27.1%	2.7	61.3%	21.5%
14	Kalifa Sakho	F	Sr	6'11"	34-1	12.8	2.4	2.6	0.1	0.4	82.5%	—	0.0	59.3%	9.4%
24	Chase McCarty	F	Fr	6'5"	35-0	12.3	4.1	2.5	0.2	0.2	55.7%	35.8%	2.7	88.9%	18.6%
25	Mercy Miller	G	So	6'4"	35-0	12.2	5.2	1.9	0.5	0.3	54.3%	34.0%	1.4	73.2%	24.3%
3	Ramon Walker Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	28-1	11.1	2.4	2.0	0.5	0.3	42.2%	26.5%	1.2	76.0%	15.4%
8	Cedric Lath	C	Jr	6'10"	21-0	4.0	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.0	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	5.6%
13	Jacob McFarland	C	So	6'11"	4-0	3.0	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	7.4%
0	Kordel Jefferson	G	So	6'3"	3-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.3	40.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	30.6%
6	Bryce Jackson	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Alabama2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Amari Allen	F	Fr	6'8"	32-24	28.3	11.4	6.9	3.1	1.4	53.3%	34.1%	4.3	73.8%	21.7%
22	Aiden Sherrell	F	So	6'10"	34-34	23.9	11.1	6.2	1.1	0.9	59.5%	33.8%	2.4	71.3%	22.4%
2	Aden Holloway	G	Jr	6'1"	28-27	28.4	16.8	2.8	3.8	1.5	59.9%	43.8%	6.0	86.4%	27.3%
7	Taylor Bol Bowen	F	Jr	6'10"	30-11	19.1	6.3	4.2	0.5	0.6	51.0%	30.2%	3.2	79.6%	18.0%
6	London Jemison	F	Fr	6'8"	33-13	15.6	6.2	3.4	0.4	0.6	54.1%	34.8%	2.7	60.4%	21.5%
15	Noah Williamson	C	Sr	7'0"	33-0	8.1	1.3	1.5	0.3	0.5	36.5%	16.7%	0.9	64.3%	14.7%
1	Jalil Bethea	G	So	6'5"	26-0	8.0	3.9	1.7	0.5	0.5	47.5%	31.4%	2.0	80.6%	27.6%
4	Davion Hannah	G	Fr	6'6"	10-0	12.7	3.3	1.9	0.8	1.0	53.8%	36.4%	1.1	62.5%	16.4%
10	Keitenn Bristow	F	So	6'10"	10-1	12.6	3.6	4.0	0.5	0.8	37.9%	11.1%	0.9	73.3%	20.0%
11	Preston Murphy Jr.	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	2.5	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	17.8%
25	Jacob Martin	F	So	—	9-0	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	8.1%
34	Collins Onyejiaka	C	Fr	6'11"	2-0	5.5	1.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	22.7%
31	Jack Fagan	G	So	—	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
30	Klark James	G	Sr	—	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Houston2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Joseph Tugler	F	Jr	6'8"	37-36	23.5	8.4	5.3	1.3	1.3	57.8%	100.0%	0.0	70.7%	21.8%
1	Isiah Harwell	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	13.8	3.6	2.0	0.5	0.3	36.8%	27.1%	2.7	61.3%	21.5%
14	Kalifa Sakho	F	Sr	6'11"	34-1	12.8	2.4	2.6	0.1	0.4	82.5%	—	0.0	59.3%	9.4%
24	Chase McCarty	F	Fr	6'5"	35-0	12.3	4.1	2.5	0.2	0.2	55.7%	35.8%	2.7	88.9%	18.6%
25	Mercy Miller	G	So	6'4"	35-0	12.2	5.2	1.9	0.5	0.3	54.3%	34.0%	1.4	73.2%	24.3%
3	Ramon Walker Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	28-1	11.1	2.4	2.0	0.5	0.3	42.2%	26.5%	1.2	76.0%	15.4%
8	Cedric Lath	C	Jr	6'10"	21-0	4.0	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.0	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	5.6%
13	Jacob McFarland	C	So	6'11"	4-0	3.0	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	7.4%
0	Kordel Jefferson	G	So	6'3"	3-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.3	40.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	30.6%
6	Bryce Jackson	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Houston

Against the spread

Season

18-19

Home

9-7

Road

4-5

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-22

Home

4-12

Road

4-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.1

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 26	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 55–65	−2.5	L−12.5	139.5	U120	94.1	111.2	58.5
Mar 21	#10Texas A&MAdjEM #43	N	W 88–57	−10.0	W+21.0	143.0	O145	134.5	87.1	65.5
Mar 19	#15IdahoAdjEM #156	N	W 78–47	−24.0	W+7.0	137.5	U125	118.8	71.6	65.7
Mar 14	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 74–79	+1.5	L−3.5	138.5	O153	112.6	120.2	65.7
Mar 13	#14KansasAdjEM #25	N	W 69–47	−5.5	W+16.5	138.0	U116	116.4	79.3	59.3
Mar 12	BYUAdjEM #26	N	W 73–66	−9.5	L−2.5	148.0	U139	105.4	95.3	69.3
Mar 7	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	W 82–75	−13.5	L−6.5	150.5	O157	122.6	112.1	66.9
Mar 4	BaylorAdjEM #55	H	W 77–64	−13.5	L−0.5	144.5	U141	118.2	98.2	65.2
Feb 28	ColoradoAdjEM #91	H	W 102–62	−19.0	W+21.0	138.5	O164	147.5	89.7	69.1
Feb 23	#14KansasAdjEM #25	A	L 56–69	−2.5	L−15.5	138.0	U125	86.3	106.3	64.9

Alabama

Against the spread

Season

16-19

Home

6-9

Road

5-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +2.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-17

Home

7-8

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 77–90	+9.5	L−3.5	173.0	U167	108.3	126.6	71.1
Mar 22	#5Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 90–65	−1.0	W+24.0	164.5	U155	129.9	93.8	69.3
Mar 20	#13HofstraAdjEM #69	N	W 90–70	−11.5	W+8.5	159.0	O160	129.1	100.4	69.7
Mar 13	Ole MissAdjEM #82	N	L 79–80	−12.5	L−13.5	164.5	U159	107.5	108.8	73.5
Mar 7	AuburnAdjEM #41	H	W 96–84	−6.0	W+6.0	175.0	O180	134.9	118.0	71.2
Mar 3	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 88–98	−1.5	L−11.5	180.0	O186	117.7	131.1	74.7
Feb 28	#22TennesseeAdjEM #13	A	W 71–69	+5.0	W+7.0	162.5	U140	112.7	109.5	63.0
Feb 25	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 100–75	−12.5	W+12.5	175.5	U175	131.7	98.8	75.9
Feb 21	LSUAdjEM #72	A	W 90–83	−7.5	L−0.5	172.0	O173	126.7	116.9	71.0
Feb 18	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	W 117–115 2OT	−4.0	L−2.0	181.0	O232	133.6	131.3	87.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

HoustonAlabama

Efficiency

117.7

120.7

96.5

104.9

65.5

71.9

—

Shooting

51.9%

55.2%

51.7%

57.0%

34.7%

35.8%

77.3%

76.7%

26.3%

36.0%

Ball control & glass

12.8%

13.1%

20.6%

12.8%

35.7%

32.4%

30.3%

32.8%

6.9%

8.6%

6.4%

12.6%

Style

40.7%

54.3%

37.3%

35.8%

10.4%

14.3%

52.6%

54.3%

29.6%

33.9%

Roster

2.52

2.08

6'6.9"

6'7.4"

40.7%

62.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Houston

Returning minutes: 40.7%Returning production: 36.1%

Lost

Milos Uzan 33.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kingston Flemings 31.6 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Emanuel Sharp 29.4 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chris Cenac Jr. 24.9 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryce Jackson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 41% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.

Alabama

Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%

Lost

Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.