CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDesert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
Mercer
Efficiency #161
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
75.1
win 28%
Projected
81.7
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: ASU −6.6 · total 156.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona St 69.5, Mercer 69.3 → 70.6 possessions
+4.9
Arizona St offense vs Mercer defense
+3.1
Mercer offense vs Arizona St defense
+0.6
Projected total
156.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Arizona St offense vs Mercer defense
+3.1
Mercer offense vs Arizona St defense
−0.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Arizona St by 6.6
6.6
Mercer side ◂▸ Arizona St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona St is the faster team (70.6, #71 of 365) and Mercer the slower (69.5, #115). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.8
model
Projected team totals
75.1 / 81.7
Mercer / Arizona St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#96
Mercer
69.5#79
Arizona St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMercer
Where Mercer scores: shooting
Mercer shoots an effective 53.1% (#98); Arizona St allows 52.4% (#235). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMercer
Mercer owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.1% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Mercer's offense.
DefenseArizona St
Arizona St's shot-blocking
Arizona St ranks #30 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of Mercer's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Mercer has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #98
52.4% #235
+2.3 pt/100
15.0% #69
18.5% #77
-0.1 pt/100
32.6% #102
34.9% #337
+2.3 pt/100
39.2% #74
34.3% #160
+0.2 pt/100
73.0% #167
—
+0.1 pt/100
Mercer net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.7 pts/100
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseMercer allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
52.5% #242
+0.8 pt/100
17.1% #213
17.0% #155
-0.4 pt/100
29.8% #206
33.2% #303
+0.6 pt/100
39.5% #66
29.7% #54
-0.1 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMerceroffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercer shoots
38.1
4.8
18.6
38.4
Arizona St allows
37.3
7.7
15.6
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#106 | 59.3%#204 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.4%#94 | 43.1%#253 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#154 | 39.2%#209 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#87 | 35.0%#249 | 33.7% |
Arizona Stoffense vsMercerdefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
35.6
7.8
18.0
38.6
Mercer allows
37.9
4.9
15.2
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.9%#119 | 55.1%#59 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 37.2%#115 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.4%#177 | 44.8%#348 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#202 | 36.2%#311 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMercer
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#41 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#102
Def reb %
66.8%
#303
Turnover %
15.0%
#69
Forced TO %
17.0%
#155
FT rate
39.2%
#74
FT allowed
29.7%
#54
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Mercer has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#41 of 365) to Arizona St’s +0.8 (#149).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Mercer2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baraka Okojie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.1 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 47.7% | 32.5% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 33.4% | |
| 26 | Armani Mighty | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 53.9% | 22.3% | |
| 1 | Zaire Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 36.0% | 6.2 | 83.6% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brady Shoulders | G | So | 6'6" | 29-29 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 49.8% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 70.4% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | Quinton Perkins II | G | So | 6'1" | 28-16 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55.4% | 40.8% | 4.5 | 85.7% | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Connor Serven | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 32.0% | 0.9 | 69.2% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Kyle Cuffe Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-14 | 16.5 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 33.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 10 | Tristan Gross | G | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 16.2% | |
| 8 | Bendji Pierre | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.4% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 58.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | TJ Grant | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 9.3% | |
| 23 | Braeden Carlsen | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 36.2% | 22.7% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Jaydon Cole | G | Fr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 50.0% | 29.0% | |
| 18 | Pero Zubac | F | Fr | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 15 | Alex Koch | F | So | 6'8" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 0 | NJ Nganga | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Petras Padegimas | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arizona St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maurice Odum | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 51.3% | 37.7% | 7.2 | 82.9% | 29.7% | |
| 35 | Massamba Diop | C | Fr | 7'1" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 58.2% | 30.8% | 0.8 | 71.5% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Anthony Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 24.8 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 49.7% | 32.9% | 2.4 | 76.1% | 31.7% | |
| 15 | Noah Meeusen | G | So | 6'5" | 30-11 | 27.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 49.0% | 31.0% | 3.3 | 82.9% | 14.2% | |
| 1 | Santiago Trouet | F | So | 6'11" | 31-30 | 25.7 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.1% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 78.3% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Andrija Grbovic | F | Jr | 6'11" | 33-27 | 19.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.9% | 35.0% | 3.7 | 78.9% | 19.4% | |
| 4 | Bryce Ford | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-20 | 22.4 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.4% | 3.8 | 82.9% | 18.6% | |
| 23 | Allen Mukeba | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-6 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 53.2% | 19.9% | |
| 8 | Marcus Adams Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 14-0 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 19.7% | |
| 12 | Trevor Best | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 63.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Kash Polk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 3 | Adante' Holiman | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dame Salane | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 70 | Jovan Icitovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Quentin McCoy | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Vijay Wallace | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Mercer2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baraka Okojie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.1 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 47.7% | 32.5% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 33.4% | |
| 26 | Armani Mighty | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 53.9% | 22.3% | |
| 1 | Zaire Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 36.0% | 6.2 | 83.6% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brady Shoulders | G | So | 6'6" | 29-29 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 49.8% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 70.4% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | Quinton Perkins II | G | So | 6'1" | 28-16 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55.4% | 40.8% | 4.5 | 85.7% | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Connor Serven | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 32.0% | 0.9 | 69.2% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Kyle Cuffe Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-14 | 16.5 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 33.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 10 | Tristan Gross | G | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 16.2% | |
| 8 | Bendji Pierre | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.4% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 58.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | TJ Grant | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 9.3% | |
| 23 | Braeden Carlsen | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 36.2% | 22.7% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Jaydon Cole | G | Fr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 50.0% | 29.0% | |
| 18 | Pero Zubac | F | Fr | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 15 | Alex Koch | F | So | 6'8" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 0 | NJ Nganga | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Petras Padegimas | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Mercer
Against the spread
Season
18-10-1
Home
8-3-1
Road
10-6
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-14-1
Home
9-3
Road
5-10-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −1.4
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 10 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | W Carolina | N | L 73–77 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | U150 | 108.5 | 114.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | ETSU | H | W 82–76 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 128.4 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | W Carolina | A | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 107.8 | 113.6 | 68.6 |
| Feb 21 | Samford | H | W 89–86 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O175 | 126.4 | 122.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 19 | Chattanooga | H | L 90–94 | −10.0 | L−14.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 138.6 | 144.7 | 65.0 |
| Feb 14 | The Citadel | A | W 70–54 | −12.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U124 | 113.6 | 87.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 11 | Furman | H | W 69–64 | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 151.5 | U133 | 103.6 | 96.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 7 | Samford | A | L 49–69 | −2.0 | L−22.0 | 161.0 | U118 | 74.5 | 104.9 | 65.8 |
| Feb 5 | Chattanooga | A | L 75–79 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 155.0 | U154 | 104.0 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Jan 31 | VMI | H | W 95–81 | −18.0 | L−4.0 | 153.5 | O176 | 130.7 | 111.4 | 72.7 |
Arizona St
Against the spread
Season
20-12-1
Home
10-4-1
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-17-1
Home
4-11
Road
7-4
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | #7Iowa State | N | L 42–91 | +12.5 | L−36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 61.1 | 132.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 10 | Baylor | N | W 83–79 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 117.3 | 111.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | #6Iowa State | A | L 65–86 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 89.1 | 117.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #14Kansas | H | W 70–60 | +6.0 | W+16.0 | 150.0 | U130 | 96.7 | 82.8 | 72.4 |
| Feb 28 | Utah | H | W 73–60 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 124.8 | 102.6 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | TCU | A | L 78–90 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 120.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 21 | Baylor | A | L 68–73 | +8.5 | W+3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 104.0 | 111.6 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | #13Texas Tech | H | W 72–67 | +7.5 | W+12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 108.9 | 101.3 | 66.1 |
| Feb 10 | Oklahoma St | H | W 85–76 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U161 | 113.8 | 101.7 | 74.7 |
| Feb 7 | Colorado | A | L 70–78 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 158.0 | U148 | 106.7 | 118.9 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMercerArizona St
Efficiency
111.3
110.9
110.5
106.4
69.3
69.5
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
51.1%
53.0%
51.7%
35.6%
33.4%
73.0%
75.3%
39.2%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
17.1%
17.0%
18.5%
32.6%
29.8%
33.2%
34.9%
8.8%
10.5%
8.1%
9.6%
Style
39.2%
38.4%
40.9%
41.8%
16.3%
16.3%
46.2%
53.0%
26.8%
32.3%
Roster
3.07
2.82
6'5.2"
6'7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMercer
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.