CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGlobal Credit Union Arena, Phoenix, AZ

N'Western St

Efficiency #299

2025-26: 10-22 · 8-15 conf

Grand Canyon

Efficiency #65

2025-26: 20-12 · 13-8 conf

Tue, Dec 8 · 9:00 PM ET

63.2

win 12%

Projected

76.9

win 88%

No line posted yet.

Model: GCU −13.7 · total 140.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Grand Canyon 68.8, N'Western St 66.6 → 67.1 possessions

−2.7

Grand Canyon offense vs N'Western St defense

+2.2

N'Western St offense vs Grand Canyon defense

−7.6

Projected total

140.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Grand Canyon offense vs N'Western St defense

+2.2

N'Western St offense vs Grand Canyon defense

+7.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Grand Canyon by 13.7

13.7

N'Western St side ◂▸ Grand Canyon side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Grand Canyon.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Grand Canyon is the faster team (69.0, #150 of 365) and N'Western St the slower (65.2, #329). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.1

model

Projected team totals

63.2 / 76.9

N'Western St / Grand Canyon

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#314

N'Western St

68.8#139

Grand Canyon

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageN'Western St

Where N'Western St struggles: shooting

N'Western St shoots an effective 48.6% (#301); Grand Canyon allows 47.4% (#28). Expect about 47.8%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassN'Western St

N'Western St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.9% is worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions against N'Western St's offense.

AdvantageGrand Canyon

Where Grand Canyon scores: shooting

Grand Canyon shoots an effective 51.7% (#162); N'Western St allows 53.0% (#270). Expect about 52.4%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

N'Western St has the ball

OffenseGrand Canyon allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #301

47.4% #28

-5.0 pt/100

18.3% #288

17.3% #129

-1.5 pt/100

26.1% #321

25.3% #12

-3.4 pt/100

40.1% #58

39.0% #285

+0.6 pt/100

74.0% #135

—

+0.1 pt/100

N'Western St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.1 pts/100

Grand Canyon has the ball

OffenseN'Western St allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #162

53.0% #270

+1.6 pt/100

17.6% #246

16.9% #163

-0.7 pt/100

31.3% #150

32.6% #286

+1.1 pt/100

39.5% #67

36.3% #218

+0.4 pt/100

75.3% #72

—

+0.3 pt/100

Grand Canyon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western Stoffense vsGrand Canyondefense

Share of shots by zone

N'Western St shoots

37.7

9.9

19.1

33.3

Grand Canyon allows

36.3

5.9

19.8

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#323	51.6%#12	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.3%#168	34.4%#50	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#64	42.6%#320	38.0%
Three	33.2%#218	31.9%#60	33.7%

Grand Canyonoffense vsN'Western Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Grand Canyon shoots

41.1

4.2

16.2

38.5

N'Western St allows

38.8

8.4

14.8

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#104	60.4%#247	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#345	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#240	41.4%#289	38.0%
Three	31.8%#286	35.5%#278	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western St

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#266 of 365

Off reb %

26.1%

#321

Def reb %

67.4%

#286

Turnover %

18.3%

#288

Forced TO %

16.9%

#163

FT rate

40.1%

#58

FT allowed

36.3%

#218

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Grand Canyon

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#96 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#150

Def reb %

74.7%

#12

Turnover %

17.6%

#246

Forced TO %

17.3%

#129

FT rate

39.5%

#67

FT allowed

39.0%

#285

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Grand Canyon has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#96 of 365) to N'Western St’s −1.9 (#266).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nana Owusu-Anane	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	32.5	9.3	8.5	1.8	1.2	52.1%	35.9%	3.7	72.6%	17.2%
2	Makaih Williams	G	Jr	6'2"	32-20	27.1	14.0	2.7	2.5	1.7	51.3%	33.5%	5.2	78.6%	30.3%
5	Brian Moore Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	29-28	27.6	9.5	2.4	2.6	1.6	54.0%	40.8%	1.7	69.7%	20.7%
8	Dusty Stromer	G	Jr	6'6"	32-5	22.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	1.0	45.7%	33.3%	3.6	80.0%	19.1%
17	Efe Demirel	C	Fr	7'1"	32-28	22.5	8.5	5.3	0.3	1.3	63.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.0%
11	Caleb Shaw	G	Jr	6'6"	21-11	20.9	7.8	3.8	1.4	1.3	58.8%	37.0%	3.5	64.7%	21.7%
32	Wilhelm Breidenbach	F	Sr	6'10"	29-4	12.4	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.6	41.3%	13.3%	1.0	80.6%	15.3%
14	Dennis Evans	C	Fr	7'2"	24-0	8.8	2.8	2.0	0.0	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	75.0%	15.8%
22	Kaleb Smith	F	Jr	6'10"	21-0	8.4	1.4	1.2	0.3	0.4	21.1%	10.5%	0.9	77.8%	17.6%
9	Evan Boisdur	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	5.6	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	33.3%	16.7%	0.9	75.0%	21.2%
23	Cole Pepe	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	17.1%
3	Braylon Johnson	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Jack Sawyer	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Luke Shaw	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N'Western St

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

8-4

Road

9-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

4-8

Road

11-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −11.8

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	NichollsAdjEM #250	N	L 47–61	+2.0	L−12.0	139.0	U108	79.8	103.5	58.9
Mar 2	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	L 62–74	+9.0	L−3.0	139.0	U136	96.0	114.6	64.6
Feb 28	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	L 59–71	+6.0	L−6.0	134.0	U130	97.5	117.4	60.5
Feb 23	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	H	W 54–49	−2.5	W+2.5	138.0	U103	89.9	81.6	60.1
Feb 21	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	H	W 71–53	−2.5	W+15.5	133.5	U124	112.1	83.6	63.4
Feb 16	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 64–75	+14.0	W+3.0	137.5	O139	100.9	118.2	63.5
Feb 14	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	W 69–66	−1.0	W+2.0	131.0	O135	110.4	105.6	62.5
Feb 9	LamarAdjEM #236	A	W 70–68	+7.5	W+9.5	136.5	O138	106.1	103.1	66.0
Feb 7	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	A	L 48–52	+2.0	L−2.0	141.5	U100	72.1	78.1	66.5
Feb 4	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	H	L 68–74	−3.0	L−9.0	143.0	U142	107.6	117.1	63.2

Grand Canyon

Against the spread

Season

17-15

Home

9-8

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

7-10

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	NevadaAdjEM #71	N	L 80–84	−3.5	L−7.5	137.5	O164	113.6	119.3	70.4
Mar 7	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 85–60	−12.5	W+12.5	150.0	U145	117.0	82.6	72.7
Mar 3	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 86–60	−19.0	W+7.0	143.0	O146	125.3	87.4	68.7
Feb 28	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 69–74	+9.5	W+4.5	148.0	U143	108.5	116.4	63.6
Feb 25	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 80–67	−7.5	W+5.5	150.5	U147	115.1	96.4	69.5
Feb 21	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	L 65–70	−8.5	L−13.5	144.5	U135	96.3	103.7	67.5
Feb 17	San Diego StAdjEM #53	A	W 73–63	+8.0	W+18.0	139.0	U136	102.5	88.4	71.2
Feb 14	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 94–79	−11.5	W+3.5	139.0	O173	144.7	121.6	65.0
Feb 11	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	L 64–70	−1.5	L−7.5	149.0	U134	93.4	102.1	68.5
Feb 7	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 78–80	−3.5	L−5.5	149.0	O158	108.6	111.4	71.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N'Western StGrand Canyon

Efficiency

104.1

109.0

111.3

101.5

66.6

68.8

—

Shooting

48.6%

51.7%

48.0%

54.2%

33.2%

31.8%

74.0%

75.3%

40.1%

39.5%

Ball control & glass

18.3%

17.6%

16.9%

17.3%

26.1%

31.3%

32.6%

25.3%

10.6%

9.3%

9.6%

7.9%

Style

33.9%

38.9%

40.8%

43.2%

12.4%

13.9%

50.7%

49.6%

36.8%

29.1%

Roster

3.12

3.03

6'4"

6'6.7"

—

84.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N'Western St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Grand Canyon

Returning minutes: 84.3%Returning production: 79.1%

Lost

Jaden Henley 31.5 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Luke Shaw no D1 minutes last season
Jack Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
Braylon Johnson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 21	2025-26	N'Western St 72 – 85 Grand Canyon

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.