CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Boston U
Efficiency #237
2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf
@
Saint Joseph's
Efficiency #118
2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
68.8
win 25%
Projected
76.5
win 75%
No line posted yet.
Model: JOES −7.7 · total 145.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Joseph's 68.8, Boston U 65.5 → 66.0 possessions
−5.1
Saint Joseph's offense vs Boston U defense
+3.0
Boston U offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
−0.9
Projected total
145.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Joseph's offense vs Boston U defense
+3.0
Boston U offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
+0.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Saint Joseph's by 7.7
7.7
Boston U side ◂▸ Saint Joseph's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.2 against a projected 145.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Joseph's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Joseph's is the faster team (68.2, #192 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.3
model
Projected team totals
68.8 / 76.5
Boston U / Saint Joseph's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.5#357
Boston U
68.8#137
Saint Joseph's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Saint Joseph's averages 68.2 possessions per 40, Boston U 63.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSaint Joseph's
Where Saint Joseph's scores: ball control
Saint Joseph's turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#182); Boston U forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#353). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBoston U
Where Boston U scores: shooting
Boston U shoots an effective 57.5% (#11); Saint Joseph's allows 47.7% (#34). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Joseph's, Boston U, Boston U's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Boston U at about 43.4% of its shots from three, Saint Joseph's about 44.7%.
ClashBoston U
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Boston U (#31 in 2-point shooting) against Saint Joseph's (#40 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.7%. Historically Boston U's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
ClashBoston U
Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting
Boston U (#5 in 3-point shooting) against Saint Joseph's (#51 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.7%. Historically Boston U's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).
Boston U has the ball
OffenseSaint Joseph's allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #11
47.7% #34
+2.5 pt/100
17.8% #255
15.0% #286
+0.7 pt/100
28.0% #269
30.6% #185
-1.0 pt/100
31.4% #270
26.9% #20
-0.8 pt/100
73.4% #157
—
+0.1 pt/100
Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
Saint Joseph's has the ball
OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #284
53.6% #288
-0.0 pt/100
16.8% #182
13.0% #353
+3.0 pt/100
31.4% #147
28.0% #65
-0.3 pt/100
29.7% #318
30.5% #73
-0.7 pt/100
73.8% #138
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Joseph's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Boston Uoffense vsSaint Joseph'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston U shoots
Saint Joseph's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.0%#7352.6%#2158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)54.8%#141.5%#22639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.4%#2038.3%#16838.0%
Three38.8%#531.7%#5133.7%
Saint Joseph'soffense vsBoston Udefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Joseph's shoots
Boston U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.2%#18954.3%#4458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.7%#27353.8%#36439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.0%#31245.4%#35238.0%
Three30.8%#32536.6%#33033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Boston U
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365
Off reb %
28.0%
#269
Def reb %
72.0%
#65
Turnover %
17.8%
#255
Forced TO %
13.0%
#353
FT rate
31.4%
#270
FT allowed
30.5%
#73
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Saint Joseph's
0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#181 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#147
Def reb %
69.4%
#185
Turnover %
16.8%
#182
Forced TO %
15.0%
#286
FT rate
29.7%
#318
FT allowed
26.9%
#20
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+2.1

Saint Joseph's has more extra scoring chances per game: 0.0 (#181 of 365) to Boston U’s −2.8 (#298).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Boston U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
20Michael McNairGJr6'5"34-3436.116.95.12.11.361.4%44.4%7.373.8%25.5%
2Chance GladdenGFr6'4"33-3133.414.43.24.52.752.7%34.7%3.086.7%27.9%
6Sam HughesFFr6'6"34-2630.19.03.41.31.152.9%37.2%5.480.6%19.5%
7Azmar AbdullahGSo6'3"34-2229.68.33.41.51.353.7%39.4%4.785.0%18.3%
14Ben DeftyFSo7'0"33-3329.415.16.81.92.369.4%—0.067.1%28.1%
21Donte Tisinger Jr.GFr6'3"28-020.16.42.01.81.057.6%36.9%2.362.1%19.9%
30Ben RoyGSr6'0"12-1226.86.61.52.51.164.5%45.8%2.053.3%14.6%
3Malcolm ChimezieFSr6'8"14-921.45.25.51.10.963.3%—0.050.0%14.7%
32Quinn NielsenFJr6'11"29-08.31.32.50.10.457.1%—0.048.1%12.1%
1Ethan OkwuosaGSr6'3"8-219.34.43.81.00.539.3%25.0%2.566.7%19.0%
15Andrew BhesaniaFFr6'9"3-010.37.72.30.00.071.4%44.4%3.0100.0%27.7%
8Peter CarrGSo6'5"4-04.80.50.50.30.525.0%0.0%0.80.0%21.3%
5Kyrone AlexanderGJr6'5"1-111.01.02.00.01.00.0%0.0%1.050.0%21.7%
0Matai BaptisteGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
41Otto LandrumFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Spencer JoynerGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Boston USaint Joseph's
Efficiency
111.2
107.1
114.5
104.5
65.5
68.8
—
—
Shooting
57.5%
49.2%
56.9%
51.7%
38.8%
30.8%
73.4%
73.8%
31.4%
29.7%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
16.8%
13.0%
15.0%
28.0%
31.4%
28.0%
30.6%
10.8%
9.7%
8.9%
10.8%
Style
43.8%
45.1%
40.7%
44.1%
7.0%
15.5%
53.6%
59.6%
23.5%
26.1%
Roster
2.04
2.54
6'5.6"
6'5.5"
—
90.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Boston U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Saint Joseph's
Returning minutes: 90.9%Returning production: 91.4%
Lost
  • Jaden Smith 9.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Ball State
  • Deuce Jones 7.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kevin Kearney 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Added
  • Owen Verna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.