CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conference

Miss Valley St

Efficiency #365

2025-26: 3-30 · 2-17 conf

UConn

Efficiency #10

2025-26: 34-6 · 19-4 conf

Tue, Dec 8 · TBD

54.5

win 0%

Projected

85.6

win 100%

No line posted yet.

Model: CONN −31.1 · total 140.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UConn 66.4, Miss Valley St 68.3 → 66.4 possessions

−4.1

UConn offense vs Miss Valley St defense

+11.6

Miss Valley St offense vs UConn defense

−15.7

Projected total

140.0

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UConn offense vs Miss Valley St defense

+11.6

Miss Valley St offense vs UConn defense

+15.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

UConn by 31.1

31.1

Miss Valley St side ◂▸ UConn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UConn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miss Valley St is the faster team (69.6, #109 of 365) and UConn the slower (65.7, #308). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.0

model

Projected team totals

54.5 / 85.6

Miss Valley St / UConn

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#180

Miss Valley St

66.4#324

UConn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiss Valley St

Where Miss Valley St struggles: shooting

Miss Valley St shoots an effective 45.2% (#359); UConn allows 45.7% (#7). Expect about 44.9%, 6.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -9.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUConn

Where UConn scores: shooting

UConn shoots an effective 54.3% (#59); Miss Valley St allows 55.5% (#341). Expect about 55.2%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.5 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversMiss Valley St

Miss Valley St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 20.4% is worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions against Miss Valley St's offense.

ClashUConn

Style match: ball movement

UConn assists on 64.9% of its made baskets; Miss Valley St allows assists on 59.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 65.1% — both habits push the same way.

GlassUConn

UConn owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.6% is worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions for UConn's offense.

DefenseUConn

UConn's shot-blocking

UConn ranks #12 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of Miss Valley St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Miss Valley St has the ball

OffenseUConn allowsvs D1 avg

45.2% #359

45.7% #7

-9.1 pt/100

21.9% #362

17.8% #107

-4.4 pt/100

26.4% #313

28.8% #99

-2.2 pt/100

33.9% #215

40.7% #308

+0.4 pt/100

71.6% #217

—

-0.1 pt/100

Miss Valley St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -15.4 pts/100

UConn has the ball

OffenseMiss Valley St allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #59

55.5% #341

+5.5 pt/100

16.4% #163

17.1% #145

+0.0 pt/100

35.7% #30

35.5% #346

+3.8 pt/100

29.9% #313

50.8% #362

+0.9 pt/100

72.4% #192

—

+0.0 pt/100

UConn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Miss Valley Stoffense vsUConndefense

Share of shots by zone

Miss Valley St shoots

30.9

6.1

33.2

29.8

UConn allows

40.0

7.0

17.3

35.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#309	50.8%#6	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.6%#204	45.3%#306	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#239	34.8%#70	38.0%
Three	29.5%#346	30.2%#8	33.7%

UConnoffense vsMiss Valley Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UConn shoots

37.7

7.8

14.2

40.3

Miss Valley St allows

37.6

5.7

14.6

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.1%#36	62.7%#318	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.4%#188	47.0%#331	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.9%#17	37.9%#157	38.0%
Three	34.4%#150	37.2%#346	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Miss Valley St

−10.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#365 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#313

Def reb %

64.5%

#346

Turnover %

21.9%

#362

Forced TO %

17.1%

#145

FT rate

33.9%

#215

FT allowed

50.8%

#362

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−3.5

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed−4.0

UConn

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#160 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#30

Def reb %

71.2%

#99

Turnover %

16.4%

#163

Forced TO %

17.8%

#107

FT rate

29.9%

#313

FT allowed

40.7%

#308

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed−1.4

UConn has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#160 of 365) to Miss Valley St’s −10.4 (#365).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Miss Valley St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Miss Valley St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Michael James	G	Jr	6'1"	32-31	36.8	21.4	3.4	2.8	2.9	51.2%	34.0%	7.5	90.4%	34.3%
0	Patrick Punch	G	Sr	6'4"	30-28	30.6	8.1	3.0	1.7	1.9	36.8%	25.2%	3.7	72.3%	21.1%
22	Daniel Mayfield	F	Sr	6'8"	28-28	29.5	13.4	6.1	1.3	2.0	45.7%	30.0%	2.1	79.1%	29.9%
24	X'Zaevion Barnett	G	Jr	6'2"	27-10	28.4	4.7	4.1	2.7	2.1	38.8%	28.6%	0.8	53.3%	15.0%
20	Mussa Mzein	C	Jr	6'10"	33-15	17.5	3.3	2.2	0.6	1.2	45.6%	33.3%	0.2	55.6%	15.7%
3	Lamont Sams	F	Sr	6'9"	19-16	26.7	8.4	4.4	1.3	1.5	48.8%	28.8%	2.7	80.0%	19.9%
2	Delkedric Holmes	G	Jr	6'2"	17-13	25.2	4.8	1.6	2.6	2.6	33.2%	15.8%	1.1	79.2%	19.9%
11	Xzayvion Childress	G	Jr	6'0"	13-10	30.6	8.2	2.5	2.4	2.5	46.5%	29.7%	2.8	87.5%	19.1%
13	Tyrone Iroghama	G	Jr	6'8"	29-5	11.7	2.5	2.2	0.2	1.0	49.1%	—	0.0	38.6%	18.2%
5	Chance Sutton	F	Jr	6'7"	29-1	11.7	1.6	2.1	0.2	0.9	45.2%	—	0.0	50.0%	12.6%
21	Samuel Murray	F	Jr	6'8"	15-5	12.9	5.1	3.5	0.6	0.3	50.0%	12.5%	0.5	59.1%	22.8%
1	Antonio Sisk	G	Sr	6'1"	4-2	20.3	2.5	1.0	2.0	2.3	35.7%	25.0%	2.0	—	14.3%
35	Jonathan Pace	F	So	6'10"	15-1	4.8	1.1	1.1	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	14.7%
14	George Ivory III	G	Sr	6'2"	2-0	9.5	5.0	0.5	0.5	0.5	71.4%	66.7%	1.5	—	25.5%
33	PJ McDonald	F	So	6'5"	2-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
23	Derrick Singleton	F	Jr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UConn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Silas Demary Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	39-38	28.4	10.1	4.5	5.9	2.2	50.9%	38.5%	2.3	80.1%	23.7%
1	Solo Ball	G	Jr	6'4"	39-39	28.3	12.8	3.0	1.5	1.2	48.4%	30.0%	6.6	85.2%	28.7%
24	Braylon Mullins	G	Fr	6'6"	33-29	28.2	12.0	3.5	1.4	1.2	52.4%	33.5%	6.5	88.9%	26.7%
23	Jayden Ross	F	Jr	6'7"	38-0	17.5	4.6	2.5	0.8	0.6	60.7%	39.1%	1.7	69.2%	15.0%
0	Malachi Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	40-2	15.9	3.6	1.5	3.0	0.9	46.1%	44.7%	1.2	53.2%	17.9%
12	Eric Reibe	C	Fr	7'1"	40-5	13.8	5.9	3.3	0.5	0.6	67.1%	30.8%	0.3	52.1%	22.6%
3	Jaylin Stewart	F	Jr	6'7"	32-12	16.2	4.2	2.6	1.1	0.7	51.3%	34.5%	1.7	59.3%	17.2%
4	Dwayne Koroma	F	Sr	6'8"	16-0	5.8	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.3	56.3%	—	0.0	54.5%	17.2%
9	Alec Millender	G	Sr	6'1"	18-0	3.3	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.2	40.9%	14.3%	0.4	66.7%	15.1%
77	Uros Paunovic	G	Jr	6'3"	12-0	1.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.9%
10	Rrezon Elezaj	C	Fr	7'1"	4-0	1.3	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.0%
13	Jacob Ross	F	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miss Valley St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Miss Valley St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Michael James	G	Jr	6'1"	32-31	36.8	21.4	3.4	2.8	2.9	51.2%	34.0%	7.5	90.4%	34.3%
0	Patrick Punch	G	Sr	6'4"	30-28	30.6	8.1	3.0	1.7	1.9	36.8%	25.2%	3.7	72.3%	21.1%
22	Daniel Mayfield	F	Sr	6'8"	28-28	29.5	13.4	6.1	1.3	2.0	45.7%	30.0%	2.1	79.1%	29.9%
24	X'Zaevion Barnett	G	Jr	6'2"	27-10	28.4	4.7	4.1	2.7	2.1	38.8%	28.6%	0.8	53.3%	15.0%
20	Mussa Mzein	C	Jr	6'10"	33-15	17.5	3.3	2.2	0.6	1.2	45.6%	33.3%	0.2	55.6%	15.7%
3	Lamont Sams	F	Sr	6'9"	19-16	26.7	8.4	4.4	1.3	1.5	48.8%	28.8%	2.7	80.0%	19.9%
2	Delkedric Holmes	G	Jr	6'2"	17-13	25.2	4.8	1.6	2.6	2.6	33.2%	15.8%	1.1	79.2%	19.9%
11	Xzayvion Childress	G	Jr	6'0"	13-10	30.6	8.2	2.5	2.4	2.5	46.5%	29.7%	2.8	87.5%	19.1%
13	Tyrone Iroghama	G	Jr	6'8"	29-5	11.7	2.5	2.2	0.2	1.0	49.1%	—	0.0	38.6%	18.2%
5	Chance Sutton	F	Jr	6'7"	29-1	11.7	1.6	2.1	0.2	0.9	45.2%	—	0.0	50.0%	12.6%
21	Samuel Murray	F	Jr	6'8"	15-5	12.9	5.1	3.5	0.6	0.3	50.0%	12.5%	0.5	59.1%	22.8%
1	Antonio Sisk	G	Sr	6'1"	4-2	20.3	2.5	1.0	2.0	2.3	35.7%	25.0%	2.0	—	14.3%
35	Jonathan Pace	F	So	6'10"	15-1	4.8	1.1	1.1	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	14.7%
14	George Ivory III	G	Sr	6'2"	2-0	9.5	5.0	0.5	0.5	0.5	71.4%	66.7%	1.5	—	25.5%
33	PJ McDonald	F	So	6'5"	2-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
23	Derrick Singleton	F	Jr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Miss Valley St

Against the spread

Season

15-16-1

Home

2-7-1

Road

11-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 4 of 7 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-17-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

9-10

Last 10

3-6-1

avg vs total −1.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdog, 1 pushOver in 3 of 7 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	GramblingAdjEM #290	N	L 52–77	+13.5	L−11.5	137.0	U129	78.5	116.2	66.2
Mar 5	Jackson StAdjEM #353	A	L 77–85	+11.5	W+3.5	145.0	O162	116.7	128.8	66.0
Mar 3	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	A	L 64–67	+9.5	W+6.5	139.0	U131	99.1	103.7	64.6
Feb 28	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	W 70–69	+14.0	W+15.0	147.5	U139	100.4	99.0	69.7
Feb 23	GramblingAdjEM #290	A	L 62–83	+16.0	L−5.0	137.0	O145	78.6	105.2	78.9
Feb 21	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	H	W 72–71	+11.5	W+12.5	143.5	U143	105.3	103.8	68.4
Feb 19	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	H	L 62–72	+9.0	L−1.0	153.5	U134	91.3	106.0	67.9
Feb 16	Alabama StAdjEM #324	A	L 55–92	+16.5	L−20.5	143.0	O147	76.1	127.3	72.3
Feb 14	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	A	L 65–72	+15.5	W+8.5	139.5	U137	101.8	112.7	63.9
Feb 9	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	H	L 66–74	+5.5	L−2.5	140.0	P140	112.4	126.0	58.7

UConn

Against the spread

Season

17-23

Home

4-13

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-22-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.3

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 6	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 63–69	+6.5	W+0.5	146.0	U132	96.3	105.4	65.4
Apr 4	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 71–62	+1.5	W+10.5	139.0	U133	111.8	97.6	63.5
Mar 29	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	W 73–72	+4.5	W+5.5	135.5	O145	116.3	114.7	62.8
Mar 27	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	W 67–63	−2.0	W+2.0	136.0	U130	105.4	99.1	63.6
Mar 22	#7UCLAAdjEM #37	N	W 73–57	−5.5	W+10.5	136.0	U130	115.9	90.5	63.0
Mar 20	#15FurmanAdjEM #163	N	W 82–71	−21.0	L−10.0	135.0	O153	125.3	108.5	65.4
Mar 14	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 52–72	−2.0	L−22.0	139.5	U124	82.7	114.5	62.9
Mar 13	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	W 67–51	−14.0	W+2.0	139.0	U118	112.6	85.7	59.5
Mar 12	XavierAdjEM #129	N	W 93–68	−16.5	W+8.5	151.0	O161	144.4	105.5	64.4
Mar 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 62–68	−10.0	L−16.0	142.5	U130	92.2	101.1	67.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Miss Valley StUConn

Efficiency

95.1

116.7

117.8

98.2

68.3

66.4

—

Shooting

45.2%

54.3%

45.6%

56.1%

29.5%

34.4%

71.6%

72.4%

33.9%

29.9%

Ball control & glass

21.9%

16.4%

17.1%

17.8%

26.4%

35.7%

35.5%

28.8%

12.4%

8.5%

9.0%

10.1%

Style

30.2%

40.9%

37.9%

45.8%

15.9%

11.7%

52.9%

64.9%

26.5%

27.5%

Roster

3.34

2.62

6'4.8"

6'5.5"

—

70.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Miss Valley St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Miss Valley St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UConn

Returning minutes: 70.6%Returning production: 63.9%

Lost

Alex Karaban 34.3 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tarris Reed Jr. 23.9 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacob Furphy 0.9 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Jacob Ross no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 71% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.