CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS
IU Indy
Efficiency #315
2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf
@
Kansas St
Efficiency #128
2025-26: 12-20 · 3-16 conf
Tue, Dec 8 · TBD
78.0
win 14%
Projected
90.7
win 86%
No line posted yet.
Model: KSU −12.7 · total 168.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas St 71.8, IU Indy 72.5 → 76.0 possessions
+16.6
Kansas St offense vs IU Indy defense
+6.1
IU Indy offense vs Kansas St defense
−2.2
Projected total
168.7
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kansas St offense vs IU Indy defense
+6.1
IU Indy offense vs Kansas St defense
+2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.4
Kansas St by 12.7
12.7
IU Indy side ◂▸ Kansas St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 76.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, IU Indy is the faster team (74.9, #4 of 365) and Kansas St the slower (73.8, #7). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
76.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
168.7
model
Projected team totals
78.0 / 90.7
IU Indy / Kansas St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.5#2
IU Indy
71.8#7
Kansas St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Kansas St averages 73.8 possessions per 40, IU Indy 74.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 77 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageKansas St
Where Kansas St scores: shooting
Kansas St shoots an effective 53.3% (#88); IU Indy allows 58.2% (#362). Expect about 56.0%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversKansas St
Kansas St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Kansas St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas St, IU Indy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect IU Indy at about 41.0% of its shots from three, Kansas St about 38.2%.
AdvantageIU Indy
Where IU Indy scores: shooting
IU Indy shoots an effective 52.2% (#136); Kansas St allows 52.5% (#239). Expect about 52.4%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
IU Indy has the ball
OffenseKansas St allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #136
52.5% #239
+1.6 pt/100
15.9% #127
17.1% #144
+0.4 pt/100
28.7% #243
33.9% #317
+0.3 pt/100
21.7% #365
35.2% #183
-0.8 pt/100
72.1% #204
—
-0.0 pt/100
IU Indy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
Kansas St has the ball
OffenseIU Indy allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #88
58.2% #362
+6.7 pt/100
17.4% #234
19.2% #41
-2.4 pt/100
29.2% #229
35.6% #348
+1.0 pt/100
26.9% #351
46.6% #356
+0.4 pt/100
71.0% #241
—
-0.1 pt/100
Kansas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersIU Indyoffense vsKansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
IU Indy shoots
34.6
8.1
15.3
42.0
Kansas St allows
39.3
6.6
15.8
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.5%#62 | 60.6%#255 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.3%#11 | 40.8%#205 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.0%#223 | 42.0%#301 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#258 | 33.7%#166 | 33.7% |
Kansas Stoffense vsIU Indydefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas St shoots
38.1
7.9
13.9
40.1
IU Indy allows
48.7
4.0
11.4
35.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.6%#60 | 64.3%#343 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.6%#254 | 41.8%#228 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.9%#341 | 38.4%#173 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.4%#43 | 38.5%#361 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersIU Indy
−6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#243
Def reb %
64.4%
#348
Turnover %
15.9%
#127
Forced TO %
19.2%
#41
FT rate
21.7%
#365
FT allowed
46.6%
#356
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−3.4
Foul shots allowed−2.9
Kansas St
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#323 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#229
Def reb %
66.1%
#317
Turnover %
17.4%
#234
Forced TO %
17.1%
#144
FT rate
26.9%
#351
FT allowed
35.2%
#183
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed0.0
Kansas St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.7 (#323 of 365) to IU Indy’s −6.2 (#358).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
IU Indy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Finley Woodward | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 30.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 51.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 68.6% | 18.0% | |
| 12 | Kyler D'Augustino | G | Jr | 6'1" | 30-30 | 32.3 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 58.0% | 39.4% | 3.5 | 79.3% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Maguire Mitchell | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 26.3 | 11.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 54.5% | 34.9% | 7.4 | 78.4% | 22.9% | |
| 4 | Micah Davis | G | So | 6'2" | 32-6 | 25.4 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 49.6% | 31.3% | 5.2 | 70.0% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Jaxon Edwards | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-14 | 23.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 55.1% | 21.3% | 1.6 | 73.6% | 27.3% | |
| 20 | Kameron Tinsley | F | So | 6'6" | 29-5 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 4.7 | 83.9% | 23.1% | |
| 23 | Aiden Miller | F | So | 6'8" | 29-9 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 31.6% | 3.4 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 15 | Matt Compas | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-5 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 20.6% | 1.1 | 68.4% | 28.5% | |
| 1 | Reece Hagy | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-23 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 46.9% | 21.2% | 1.1 | 56.5% | 12.8% | |
| 5 | JP Dragas | G | So | 6'1" | 15-0 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 4.4 | 71.4% | 20.2% | |
| 24 | Gabe Stewart | F | Fr | 6'9" | 12-5 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 28.1% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 17.1% | |
| 10 | Lav Cvetkovic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 57.7% | 37.5% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 17.6% | |
| 22 | Ajay Holubar | G | Sr | 6'3" | 9-0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 18.9% | |
| 2 | Corey Boston | G | Sr | 5'10" | 6-0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 32.6% | |
| 11 | Garrett Sever | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 11.9% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | P.J. Haggerty | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 35.2 | 23.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 52.5% | 35.1% | 3.7 | 70.1% | 37.3% | |
| 34 | Nate Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 55.0% | 40.8% | 4.9 | 85.0% | 22.0% | |
| 10 | David Castillo | G | So | 6'1" | 32-16 | 28.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 49.7% | 35.2% | 5.0 | 82.0% | 21.6% | |
| 15 | Taj Manning | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 20.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.0% | 18.5% | 0.9 | 69.7% | 12.1% | |
| 21 | Khamari McGriff | F | Sr | 6'9" | 28-28 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 68.4% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 21.5% | |
| 3 | C.J. Jones | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-1 | 17.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 37.1% | 23.2% | 2.2 | 83.3% | 16.7% | |
| 1 | Abdi Bashir Jr. | G | Jr | 6'7" | 18-18 | 24.5 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59.7% | 44.4% | 8.4 | 68.8% | 26.3% | |
| 22 | Dorin Buca | C | Jr | 7'2" | 27-4 | 12.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.2% | 18.2% | 0.4 | 53.3% | 17.7% | |
| 47 | Andrej Kostic | F | Fr | 6'6" | 23-0 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.5% | 3.5 | 76.9% | 22.8% | |
| 0 | Elias Rapieque | F | Jr | 6'9" | 20-12 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 54.0% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 14.8% | |
| 14 | Mobi Ikegwuruka | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-1 | 12.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.6% | |
| 6 | Marcus Johnson | F | Sr | 6'7" | 14-0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 48.5% | 35.5% | 2.2 | 66.7% | 27.6% | |
| 23 | Stephen Osei | F | So | 6'10" | 3-0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 34.0% | |
| 2 | Exavier Wilson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
IU Indy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Finley Woodward | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 30.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 51.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 68.6% | 18.0% | |
| 12 | Kyler D'Augustino | G | Jr | 6'1" | 30-30 | 32.3 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 58.0% | 39.4% | 3.5 | 79.3% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Maguire Mitchell | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 26.3 | 11.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 54.5% | 34.9% | 7.4 | 78.4% | 22.9% | |
| 4 | Micah Davis | G | So | 6'2" | 32-6 | 25.4 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 49.6% | 31.3% | 5.2 | 70.0% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Jaxon Edwards | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-14 | 23.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 55.1% | 21.3% | 1.6 | 73.6% | 27.3% | |
| 20 | Kameron Tinsley | F | So | 6'6" | 29-5 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 4.7 | 83.9% | 23.1% | |
| 23 | Aiden Miller | F | So | 6'8" | 29-9 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 31.6% | 3.4 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 15 | Matt Compas | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-5 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 20.6% | 1.1 | 68.4% | 28.5% | |
| 1 | Reece Hagy | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-23 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 46.9% | 21.2% | 1.1 | 56.5% | 12.8% | |
| 5 | JP Dragas | G | So | 6'1" | 15-0 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 4.4 | 71.4% | 20.2% | |
| 24 | Gabe Stewart | F | Fr | 6'9" | 12-5 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 28.1% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 17.1% | |
| 10 | Lav Cvetkovic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 57.7% | 37.5% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 17.6% | |
| 22 | Ajay Holubar | G | Sr | 6'3" | 9-0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 18.9% | |
| 2 | Corey Boston | G | Sr | 5'10" | 6-0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 32.6% | |
| 11 | Garrett Sever | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 11.9% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26IU Indy
Against the spread
Season
12-17-1
Home
5-7
Road
7-9-1
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −1.6
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
13-16-1
Home
4-8
Road
9-7-1
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.4
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2 | Cleveland St | A | L 93–101 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 169.5 | O194 | 112.1 | 121.7 | 83.0 |
| Feb 28 | Purdue FW | H | L 81–87 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 116.4 | 125.0 | 69.6 |
| Feb 25 | Oakland | H | L 74–86 | +5.5 | L−6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 101.9 | 118.5 | 72.6 |
| Feb 19 | Wright St | A | L 73–85 | +12.0 | P0.0 | 160.5 | U158 | 102.5 | 119.3 | 71.2 |
| Feb 15 | Purdue FW | A | L 78–83 | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 158.5 | O161 | 104.1 | 110.7 | 75.0 |
| Feb 12 | N Kentucky | H | L 81–84 | +6.0 | W+3.0 | 164.5 | O165 | 114.6 | 118.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 10 | Milwaukee | H | L 88–92 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 158.0 | O180 | 113.6 | 118.7 | 77.5 |
| Feb 7 | Cleveland St | H | W 82–74 | −2.5 | W+5.5 | 168.5 | U156 | 109.3 | 98.7 | 75.0 |
| Jan 30 | Youngstown St | A | L 76–85 | +10.5 | W+1.5 | 154.0 | O161 | 103.7 | 116.0 | 73.3 |
| Jan 28 | Robert Morris | A | L 58–74 | +8.5 | L−7.5 | 159.5 | U132 | 97.3 | 124.2 | 59.6 |
Kansas St
Against the spread
Season
12-20
Home
5-13
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.4
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
9-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +5.0
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | BYU | N | L 91–105 | +11.0 | L−3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 117.0 | 135.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #14Kansas | A | L 85–104 | +17.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O189 | 108.9 | 133.2 | 78.0 |
| Mar 3 | West Virginia | H | W 65–63 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 97.4 | 94.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 28 | TCU | H | L 68–77 | +3.0 | L−6.0 | 159.5 | U145 | 94.3 | 106.8 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | Colorado | A | L 70–79 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 163.0 | U149 | 87.0 | 98.2 | 80.4 |
| Feb 21 | #13Texas Tech | A | L 72–100 | +12.5 | L−15.5 | 158.5 | O172 | 104.3 | 144.9 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | Baylor | H | W 90–74 | +3.5 | W+19.5 | 159.0 | O164 | 111.1 | 91.3 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | #3Houston | A | L 64–78 | +22.0 | W+8.0 | 146.0 | U142 | 84.7 | 103.2 | 75.6 |
| Feb 11 | Cincinnati | H | L 62–91 | +2.5 | L−26.5 | 147.0 | O153 | 88.0 | 129.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | TCU | A | L 82–84 | +10.0 | W+8.0 | 154.0 | O166 | 114.8 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIU IndyKansas St
Efficiency
106.3
110.1
114.9
107.7
72.5
71.8
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
53.3%
54.8%
52.4%
32.4%
36.4%
72.1%
71.0%
21.7%
26.9%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
17.4%
19.2%
17.1%
28.7%
29.2%
35.6%
33.9%
10.1%
10.0%
7.9%
11.0%
Style
42.1%
40.9%
48.0%
44.5%
15.6%
18.3%
61.9%
57.7%
38.0%
29.0%
Roster
2.64
3.11
6'4.6"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIU Indy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Kansas St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.