CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStrahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Nicholls
Efficiency #250
2025-26: 14-19 · 13-11 conf
@
Texas St
Efficiency #249
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
70.7
win 37%
Projected
74.7
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: TXST −3.9 · total 145.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas St 67.6, Nicholls 68.9 → 68.1 possessions
−0.5
Texas St offense vs Nicholls defense
−1.1
Nicholls offense vs Texas St defense
−1.2
Projected total
145.4
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas St offense vs Nicholls defense
−1.1
Nicholls offense vs Texas St defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Texas St by 3.9
3.9
Nicholls side ◂▸ Texas St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.0 against +3.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Nicholls is the faster team (68.3, #180 of 365) and Texas St the slower (67.3, #231). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.4
model
Projected team totals
70.7 / 74.7
Nicholls / Texas St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#131
Nicholls
67.6#245
Texas St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageTexas St
Where Texas St struggles: ball control
Texas St turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#307); Nicholls forces turnovers on 20.5% of opponent possessions (#15). Expect about 20.2%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseNicholls
Nicholls's ball-hawking
Nicholls ranks #13 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.4% of Texas St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
GlassTexas St
Texas St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.5% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for Texas St's offense.
AdvantageNicholls
Where Nicholls struggles: ball control
Nicholls turns it over on 17.4% of possessions (#232); Texas St forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#72). Expect about 18.3%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassNicholls
Nicholls gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Nicholls's offense.
DefenseTexas St
Texas St's ball-hawking
Texas St ranks #32 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.8% of Nicholls's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Nicholls has the ball
OffenseTexas St allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #205
52.0% #210
-0.0 pt/100
17.4% #232
18.5% #72
-1.8 pt/100
28.1% #263
28.4% #81
-1.6 pt/100
34.5% #195
39.1% #288
+0.3 pt/100
66.2% #350
—
-0.5 pt/100
Nicholls net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100
Texas St has the ball
OffenseNicholls allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #238
54.4% #311
+1.2 pt/100
18.6% #307
20.5% #15
-4.2 pt/100
33.9% #68
33.7% #314
+2.5 pt/100
34.0% #211
37.9% #259
+0.2 pt/100
76.2% #49
—
+0.3 pt/100
Texas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNichollsoffense vsTexas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Nicholls shoots
41.5
2.7
12.2
43.6
Texas St allows
42.6
5.6
14.6
37.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.8%#203 | 57.8%#140 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.8%#225 | 40.0%#191 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.1%#360 | 32.7%#24 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#215 | 35.7%#293 | 33.7% |
Texas Stoffense vsNichollsdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas St shoots
45.1
5.2
25.2
24.5
Nicholls allows
41.8
6.2
12.8
39.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.2%#224 | 62.3%#304 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.2%#141 | 48.5%#343 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.2%#75 | 36.9%#128 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#271 | 34.6%#224 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNicholls
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#195 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#263
Def reb %
66.3%
#314
Turnover %
17.4%
#232
Forced TO %
20.5%
#15
FT rate
34.5%
#195
FT allowed
37.9%
#259
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+2.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Texas St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#157 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#68
Def reb %
71.6%
#81
Turnover %
18.6%
#307
Forced TO %
18.5%
#72
FT rate
34.0%
#211
FT allowed
39.1%
#288
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−1.3
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Texas St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#157 of 365) to Nicholls’s −0.4 (#195).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Nicholls2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Nicholls's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sincere Malone | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 53.9% | 30.9% | 1.7 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 1 | Trae English | G | Sr | 6'0" | 30-25 | 30.8 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 44.8% | 29.6% | 4.2 | 81.1% | 25.4% | |
| 22 | Jalik Dunkley | G | So | 6'7" | 30-27 | 28.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 58.5% | 34.2% | 1.3 | 52.0% | 25.1% | |
| 3 | Jaylen Searles | G | Sr | 6'8" | 32-25 | 25.6 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 50.6% | 35.5% | 5.3 | 66.7% | 29.1% | |
| 2 | Christian Winborne | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-17 | 22.7 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 49.5% | 34.8% | 5.3 | 64.7% | 21.6% | |
| 24 | Zee Hamoda | G | Sr | 6'7" | 29-13 | 20.9 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 38.3% | 5.1 | 79.3% | 26.3% | |
| 0 | Jalin Rice | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-12 | 17.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 45.4% | 21.2% | 1.1 | 62.1% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | Grant Sanders | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-6 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 58.1% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 45.9% | 14.5% | |
| 21 | Nick Krass | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-6 | 11.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 48.8% | 30.4% | 0.8 | 78.6% | 10.2% | |
| 9 | Zaiden Cross | G | Sr | 6'7" | 16-2 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 37.2% | 25.4% | 3.7 | 66.7% | 28.4% | |
| 8 | Kevin Pazmino | G | Jr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 60.9% | 41.9% | 1.8 | — | 17.6% | |
| 25 | Domanic Betancourt | F | Jr | 6'10" | 6-0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 11.3% | |
| 6 | Jordan Matthews | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 2 | Chaydon Stone | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Texas St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Texas St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DJ Hall | F | Fr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 30.0 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 55.0% | 35.3% | 0.5 | 78.9% | 29.6% | |
| 4 | Mark Drone | G | Sr | 6'0" | 30-30 | 30.5 | 14.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 47.2% | 28.4% | 3.2 | 83.2% | 31.8% | |
| 11 | Kaden Gumbs | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 28.3 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 52.6% | 42.2% | 1.4 | 82.6% | 20.4% | |
| 9 | Kyndall Davis | G | Sr | 6'5" | 29-23 | 24.2 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 42.6% | 24.7% | 2.8 | 71.7% | 18.2% | |
| 2 | Franck Emmou | G | So | 6'5" | 31-10 | 22.5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 53.7% | 42.0% | 2.6 | 87.2% | 18.6% | |
| 5 | Jalen Bolden | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-2 | 16.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 50.3% | 35.3% | 2.1 | 54.5% | 20.7% | |
| 3 | Robert Fields | C | Fr | 6'9" | 30-0 | 15.6 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 52.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 69.2% | 18.3% | |
| 24 | Tay Knox | C | Sr | 6'9" | 32-18 | 14.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.9% | — | 0.0 | 53.7% | 13.5% | |
| 22 | Makai Willis | C | Sr | 6'8" | 32-14 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 51.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 79.6% | 28.9% | |
| 7 | Dimp Pernell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 21.2 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 55.9% | 40.6% | 2.9 | 66.7% | 24.4% | |
| 10 | Jaelyn Lee | G | Jr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 48.9% | 27.3% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 24.0% | |
| 1 | Ky Pernell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 21.9% | |
| 6 | Cameron Simpson | G | Fr | 6'7" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | — | 15.3% | |
| 23 | Isaiah Barganier | F | Jr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 33.3% | |
| 21 | Deke Thompson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Nicholls2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Nicholls's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sincere Malone | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 53.9% | 30.9% | 1.7 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 1 | Trae English | G | Sr | 6'0" | 30-25 | 30.8 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 44.8% | 29.6% | 4.2 | 81.1% | 25.4% | |
| 22 | Jalik Dunkley | G | So | 6'7" | 30-27 | 28.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 58.5% | 34.2% | 1.3 | 52.0% | 25.1% | |
| 3 | Jaylen Searles | G | Sr | 6'8" | 32-25 | 25.6 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 50.6% | 35.5% | 5.3 | 66.7% | 29.1% | |
| 2 | Christian Winborne | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-17 | 22.7 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 49.5% | 34.8% | 5.3 | 64.7% | 21.6% | |
| 24 | Zee Hamoda | G | Sr | 6'7" | 29-13 | 20.9 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 38.3% | 5.1 | 79.3% | 26.3% | |
| 0 | Jalin Rice | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-12 | 17.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 45.4% | 21.2% | 1.1 | 62.1% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | Grant Sanders | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-6 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 58.1% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 45.9% | 14.5% | |
| 21 | Nick Krass | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-6 | 11.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 48.8% | 30.4% | 0.8 | 78.6% | 10.2% | |
| 9 | Zaiden Cross | G | Sr | 6'7" | 16-2 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 37.2% | 25.4% | 3.7 | 66.7% | 28.4% | |
| 8 | Kevin Pazmino | G | Jr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 60.9% | 41.9% | 1.8 | — | 17.6% | |
| 25 | Domanic Betancourt | F | Jr | 6'10" | 6-0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 11.3% | |
| 6 | Jordan Matthews | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 2 | Chaydon Stone | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Nicholls
Against the spread
Season
15-16-1
Home
4-6-1
Road
10-9
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover −0.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
5-6
Road
11-8
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total −0.1
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | UT Rio Grande | N | L 68–86 | +5.5 | L−12.5 | 143.5 | O154 | 101.7 | 128.6 | 66.9 |
| Mar 8 | N'Western St | N | W 61–47 | −2.0 | W+12.0 | 139.0 | U108 | 103.5 | 79.8 | 58.9 |
| Mar 2 | McNeese | H | L 65–75 | +10.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U140 | 96.6 | 111.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | SE Louisiana | H | W 68–60 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 140.0 | U128 | 104.0 | 91.8 | 65.4 |
| Feb 23 | Lamar | A | W 53–52 | +3.5 | W+4.5 | 143.5 | U105 | 81.8 | 80.3 | 64.8 |
| Feb 21 | SF Austin | A | L 78–81 | +12.0 | W+9.0 | 148.5 | O159 | 117.5 | 122.0 | 66.4 |
| Feb 16 | Hou Christian | A | L 68–72 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 138.5 | O140 | 100.9 | 106.9 | 67.4 |
| Feb 14 | Incarnate Word | A | W 91–83 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 149.0 | O174 | 138.7 | 126.5 | 65.6 |
| Feb 9 | UT Rio Grande | H | L 72–92 | +3.0 | L−17.0 | 147.5 | O164 | 104.4 | 133.4 | 69.0 |
| Feb 7 | Texas A&M-CC | H | L 76–83 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 137.0 | O159 | 112.2 | 122.6 | 67.7 |
Texas St
Against the spread
Season
15-15
Home
10-5
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +5.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 6 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-9
Road
8-4
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +3.0
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Southern Miss | N | L 77–81 | −1.5 | L−5.5 | 140.0 | O158 | 111.5 | 117.3 | 69.0 |
| Feb 27 | App State | H | W 60–57 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 98.7 | 93.8 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | Louisiana | A | L 54–67 | −3.0 | L−16.0 | 134.0 | U121 | 90.3 | 112.1 | 59.8 |
| Feb 19 | South Alabama | A | W 90–82 OT | +4.0 | W+12.0 | 137.5 | O172 | 123.5 | 112.6 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | UL Monroe | H | W 95–84 | −14.0 | L−3.0 | 149.0 | O179 | 148.1 | 131.0 | 64.1 |
| Feb 11 | Troy | H | W 74–62 | +5.0 | W+17.0 | 140.5 | U136 | 116.2 | 97.4 | 63.7 |
| Feb 7 | W Michigan | H | W 77–61 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 119.8 | 94.9 | 64.3 |
| Feb 4 | GA Southern | A | W 77–71 | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 151.0 | U148 | 110.9 | 102.2 | 69.5 |
| Jan 31 | Old Dominion | H | W 81–64 | +1.0 | W+18.0 | 143.5 | O145 | 117.1 | 92.5 | 69.2 |
| Jan 28 | Marshall | H | W 72–68 | +4.0 | W+8.0 | 147.5 | U140 | 104.6 | 98.7 | 68.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNichollsTexas St
Efficiency
106.1
105.0
110.3
109.1
68.9
67.6
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
50.0%
51.2%
50.5%
33.3%
32.2%
66.2%
76.2%
34.5%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
17.4%
18.6%
20.5%
18.5%
28.1%
33.9%
33.7%
28.4%
9.2%
11.6%
9.9%
10.1%
Style
43.9%
24.6%
41.2%
48.9%
16.6%
15.8%
52.1%
48.2%
30.5%
36.1%
Roster
3.67
2.91
6'5.6"
6'4.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNicholls
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Nicholls's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Texas St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Texas St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.