CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHolmes Convocation Center, Boone, NC
Dartmouth
Efficiency #254
2025-26: 11-16 · 5-9 conf
@
App State
Efficiency #180
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
68.0
win 28%
Projected
74.7
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: APP −6.7 · total 142.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: App State 65.5, Dartmouth 69.7 → 66.8 possessions
−3.3
App State offense vs Dartmouth defense
+0.3
Dartmouth offense vs App State defense
−2.5
Projected total
142.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
App State offense vs Dartmouth defense
+0.3
Dartmouth offense vs App State defense
+2.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
App State by 6.7
6.7
Dartmouth side ◂▸ App State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.6 against +6.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help App State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Dartmouth is the faster team (69.2, #130 of 365) and App State the slower (64.1, #355). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.7
model
Projected team totals
68.0 / 74.7
Dartmouth / App State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#74
Dartmouth
65.5#359
App State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageApp State
Where App State scores: ball control
App State turns it over on 15.3% of possessions (#84); Dartmouth forces turnovers on 13.8% of opponent possessions (#340). Expect about 14.0%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageDartmouth
Where Dartmouth struggles: the offensive glass
Dartmouth rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#346); App State lets opponents grab 29.0% of their own misses (#106). Expect about 25.1%, 5.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
App State averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Dartmouth 69.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (App State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Dartmouth at about 48.1% of its shots from three, App State about 44.4%.
TurnoversDartmouth
Dartmouth protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Dartmouth's offense.
ClashDartmouth
Style match: paint scoring
Dartmouth gets only 34.2% of its points in the paint; App State protects the paint (39.1% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.4% — both habits push the same way.
Dartmouth has the ball
OffenseApp State allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #156
47.5% #33
-2.3 pt/100
17.6% #247
14.0% #335
+1.6 pt/100
23.7% #346
29.0% #106
-3.2 pt/100
38.0% #103
31.2% #86
-0.1 pt/100
74.2% #119
—
+0.2 pt/100
Dartmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100
App State has the ball
OffenseDartmouth allowsvs D1 avg
49.9% #240
52.7% #254
-0.1 pt/100
15.3% #84
13.8% #340
+3.4 pt/100
32.0% #123
29.7% #148
+0.5 pt/100
39.1% #77
30.7% #80
-0.1 pt/100
64.5% #362
—
-0.7 pt/100
App State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersDartmouthoffense vsApp Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Dartmouth shoots
34.0
5.1
12.2
48.6
App State allows
35.5
5.0
18.7
40.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.0%#274 | 52.4%#19 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#312 | 34.2%#46 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.7%#119 | 38.4%#172 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#51 | 32.2%#71 | 33.7% |
App Stateoffense vsDartmouthdefense
Share of shots by zone
App State shoots
37.8
4.1
12.2
45.9
Dartmouth allows
44.0
4.8
11.8
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.6%#135 | 58.3%#156 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.5%#280 | 44.8%#291 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#254 | 32.9%#27 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.4%#335 | 34.6%#227 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDartmouth
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#285 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#346
Def reb %
70.3%
#148
Turnover %
17.6%
#247
Forced TO %
13.8%
#340
FT rate
38.0%
#103
FT allowed
30.7%
#80
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.1
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−2.0
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+1.2
App State
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#84 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#123
Def reb %
71.0%
#106
Turnover %
15.3%
#84
Forced TO %
14.0%
#335
FT rate
39.1%
#77
FT allowed
31.2%
#86
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.0
App State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#84 of 365) to Dartmouth’s −2.5 (#285).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Dartmouth2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kareem Thomas | G | So | 6'5" | 26-25 | 29.2 | 15.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 53.5% | 44.7% | 4.0 | 79.5% | 30.6% | |
| 30 | Connor Amundsen | PG | So | 5'11" | 26-25 | 29.1 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 48.0% | 33.3% | 4.5 | 74.6% | 20.2% | |
| 21 | Brandon Mitchell-Day | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-27 | 28.0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 53.7% | 35.8% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Jayden Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 27.3 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 54.0% | 35.6% | 6.9 | 84.8% | 25.9% | |
| 33 | Jackson Munro | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-27 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59.3% | 37.3% | 3.1 | 80.6% | 16.7% | |
| 5 | Cameron McNamee | G | So | 6'6" | 27-1 | 20.3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.8% | 38.1% | 3.1 | 66.0% | 17.3% | |
| 11 | Cam Hiatt | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 17.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 84.6% | 15.7% | |
| 23 | Nikola Abusara | G | Jr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 17.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 45.0% | 17.6% | 0.7 | 73.9% | 20.4% | |
| 0 | Ben Brown | G | Jr | 6'2" | 16-2 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 34.5% | 1.8 | — | 14.7% | |
| 10 | Anton Strelnikov | C | Fr | 6'8" | 18-0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 66.3% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 53.3% | 33.7% | |
| 7 | Patrick Tivnan Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 13-0 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 14.3% | 10.2% | |
| 44 | Shanon Simango | F | So | 6'8" | 10-0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.9% | 31.1% | |
| 50 | Tyler Garrett | F | Fr | 6'10" | 8-0 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 59.4% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 26.3% | |
| 3 | Khai Lockwood | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 9.2% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
App State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kasen Jennings | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 46.7% | 32.2% | 5.6 | 76.9% | 31.2% | |
| 2 | Alonzo Dodd | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 31.4 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 52.7% | 28.0% | 3.9 | 70.4% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | Jalen Tot | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-16 | 25.1 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 48.9% | 33.6% | 7.8 | 69.8% | 25.6% | |
| 44 | Michael Marcus Jr. | F | So | 6'9" | 32-25 | 24.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 70.7% | 19.6% | |
| 4 | Eren Banks | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-16 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 25.0% | 4.1 | 50.0% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Chad Moodie | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-7 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 41.5% | 14.0% | |
| 5 | Jason Clarke Jr. | G | So | 6'0" | 23-0 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 42.8% | 17.2% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Andrin Njock | F | Fr | 6'6" | 21-2 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 57.0% | 17.6% | 0.8 | 76.7% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | Jacari Brim | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 52.2% | 35.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 11.7% | |
| 14 | Cameron O'Kelley | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 24.3% | |
| 33 | Grant Clayton | F | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 25.1% | |
| 32 | Luke Ledford | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.0 | — | 33.8% | |
| 0 | KJ Vasser | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Ted Neal | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Tre McKinnon | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Dartmouth2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kareem Thomas | G | So | 6'5" | 26-25 | 29.2 | 15.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 53.5% | 44.7% | 4.0 | 79.5% | 30.6% | |
| 30 | Connor Amundsen | PG | So | 5'11" | 26-25 | 29.1 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 48.0% | 33.3% | 4.5 | 74.6% | 20.2% | |
| 21 | Brandon Mitchell-Day | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-27 | 28.0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 53.7% | 35.8% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Jayden Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 27.3 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 54.0% | 35.6% | 6.9 | 84.8% | 25.9% | |
| 33 | Jackson Munro | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-27 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59.3% | 37.3% | 3.1 | 80.6% | 16.7% | |
| 5 | Cameron McNamee | G | So | 6'6" | 27-1 | 20.3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.8% | 38.1% | 3.1 | 66.0% | 17.3% | |
| 11 | Cam Hiatt | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 17.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 84.6% | 15.7% | |
| 23 | Nikola Abusara | G | Jr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 17.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 45.0% | 17.6% | 0.7 | 73.9% | 20.4% | |
| 0 | Ben Brown | G | Jr | 6'2" | 16-2 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 34.5% | 1.8 | — | 14.7% | |
| 10 | Anton Strelnikov | C | Fr | 6'8" | 18-0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 66.3% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 53.3% | 33.7% | |
| 7 | Patrick Tivnan Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 13-0 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 14.3% | 10.2% | |
| 44 | Shanon Simango | F | So | 6'8" | 10-0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.9% | 31.1% | |
| 50 | Tyler Garrett | F | Fr | 6'10" | 8-0 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 59.4% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 26.3% | |
| 3 | Khai Lockwood | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 9.2% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Dartmouth
Against the spread
Season
11-14
Home
2-9
Road
9-5
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-13
Home
4-7
Road
8-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.6
Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Cornell | H | L 90–111 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 166.0 | O201 | 115.5 | 142.5 | 77.9 |
| Feb 28 | Princeton | A | L 61–82 | +2.0 | L−19.0 | 141.5 | O143 | 94.4 | 126.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 27 | Penn | A | L 71–80 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 102.6 | 115.6 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Columbia | A | W 64–63 | +7.0 | W+8.0 | 151.5 | U127 | 95.3 | 93.8 | 67.2 |
| Feb 14 | Brown | H | L 76–79 | −3.0 | L−6.0 | 139.5 | O155 | 106.4 | 110.6 | 71.5 |
| Feb 13 | Yale | H | L 70–83 | +10.0 | L−3.0 | 151.5 | O153 | 102.5 | 121.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 7 | Harvard | H | L 58–71 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 140.5 | U129 | 90.1 | 110.3 | 64.4 |
| Jan 31 | Brown | A | W 77–70 OT | +2.0 | W+9.0 | 143.0 | O147 | 103.1 | 93.7 | 74.7 |
| Jan 30 | Yale | A | L 68–83 | +15.5 | W+0.5 | 155.0 | U151 | 105.8 | 129.1 | 64.3 |
| Jan 24 | Columbia | H | L 69–79 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 157.0 | U148 | 96.6 | 110.6 | 71.4 |
App State
Against the spread
Season
16-13-1
Home
7-6
Road
8-5-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
12-18
Home
5-8
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +1.3
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Southern Miss | N | L 73–86 | −5.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | O159 | 106.5 | 125.4 | 68.6 |
| Feb 27 | Texas St | A | L 57–60 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 93.8 | 98.7 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | GA Southern | H | W 89–74 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | O163 | 125.2 | 104.1 | 71.1 |
| Feb 19 | Marshall | H | L 93–94 | −3.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | O187 | 139.9 | 141.4 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | James Madison | A | L 58–69 | −1.5 | L−12.5 | 135.0 | U127 | 94.7 | 112.7 | 61.2 |
| Feb 11 | GA Southern | A | W 81–65 | −1.5 | W+14.5 | 144.0 | O146 | 122.2 | 98.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | E Michigan | H | W 65–60 | −7.5 | L−2.5 | 131.0 | U125 | 100.7 | 92.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 4 | South Alabama | H | W 65–57 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 132.0 | U122 | 111.4 | 97.7 | 58.4 |
| Jan 31 | Troy | A | W 66–44 | +8.0 | W+30.0 | 137.5 | U110 | 112.1 | 74.8 | 58.8 |
| Jan 29 | Southern Miss | A | W 70–63 | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 134.0 | U133 | 105.2 | 94.6 | 66.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDartmouthApp State
Efficiency
106.2
106.6
110.8
107.0
69.7
65.5
—
—
Shooting
51.8%
49.9%
49.4%
53.6%
36.1%
30.4%
74.2%
64.5%
38.0%
39.1%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
15.3%
13.8%
14.0%
23.7%
32.0%
29.7%
29.0%
10.5%
7.7%
10.4%
8.8%
Style
48.7%
45.9%
34.2%
43.1%
9.5%
12.0%
53.9%
47.8%
32.1%
27.2%
Roster
2.80
3.17
6'5.2"
6'3.9"
—
85.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDartmouth
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
App State
Returning minutes: 85.9%Returning production: 81.0%
Lost
- Luke Wilson 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Added
- Tre McKinnon no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Vasser no D1 minutes last season
- Ted Neal no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 16 | 2025-26 | App State 85 – 77 Dartmouth |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.