CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteNationwide Arena, Columbus, OH

Dayton

Efficiency #62

2025-26: 25-12 · 14-7 conf

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Sun, Nov 29 · TBD

74.6

win 65%

Projected

70.0

win 35%

No line posted yet.

Model: DAY −4.6 · total 144.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Memphis 70.1, Dayton 67.8 → 69.6 possessions

+2.7

Memphis offense vs Dayton defense

−5.5

Dayton offense vs Memphis defense

−0.9

Projected total

144.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Memphis offense vs Dayton defense

−5.5

Dayton offense vs Memphis defense

+0.9

Dayton by 4.6

4.6

Dayton side ◂▸ Memphis side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.5 against a projected 144.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Memphis.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Dayton the slower (67.6, #216). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.6

model

Projected team totals

74.6 / 70.0

Dayton / Memphis

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#222

Dayton

70.1#44

Memphis

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis struggles: ball control

Memphis turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#317); Dayton forces turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions (#11). Expect about 20.7%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's shot-blocking

Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.5% of Dayton's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

DefenseDayton

Dayton's ball-hawking

Dayton ranks #23 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Memphis's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Memphis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Dayton at about 43.5% of its shots from three, Memphis about 35.7%.

AdvantageDayton

Where Dayton struggles: shooting

Dayton shoots an effective 51.6% (#168); Memphis allows 48.7% (#55). Expect about 50.1%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMemphis

Memphis owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Memphis's offense.

Dayton has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #168

48.7% #55

-1.6 pt/100

16.9% #195

18.5% #70

-1.5 pt/100

26.9% #298

35.6% #350

+0.1 pt/100

46.2% #2

42.4% #329

+1.2 pt/100

75.4% #71

—

+0.3 pt/100

Dayton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100

Memphis has the ball

OffenseDayton allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

51.0% #164

-2.3 pt/100

18.9% #317

21.0% #11

-4.8 pt/100

35.3% #41

28.8% #94

+1.6 pt/100

34.7% #190

35.5% #194

+0.0 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Daytonoffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Dayton shoots

42.8

6.3

9.8

41.1

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.8%#122	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.4%#360	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#326	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	33.9%#182	30.5%#22	33.7%

Memphisoffense vsDaytondefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

Dayton allows

37.3

9.9

12.5

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	57.9%#143	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	34.8%#54	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	37.1%#134	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	35.4%#270	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Dayton

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#19 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#298

Def reb %

71.2%

#94

Turnover %

16.9%

#195

Forced TO %

21.0%

#11

FT rate

46.2%

FT allowed

35.5%

#194

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.9

Foul shots drawn+2.9

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Dayton has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#19 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Dayton2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Javon Bennett	G	Sr	5'10"	37-37	34.5	15.8	2.2	2.9	1.4	49.0%	34.7%	7.0	89.8%	27.3%
7	Keonte Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	37-37	30.2	7.7	5.3	2.2	1.4	53.9%	31.7%	1.1	63.1%	16.1%
29	Amael L'Etang	F	So	7'1"	33-31	25.5	11.9	5.9	1.6	2.1	55.7%	36.1%	2.9	76.5%	27.6%
4	Jordan Derkack	G	Sr	6'5"	32-14	24.8	9.2	4.8	2.5	1.7	40.9%	27.6%	1.8	72.2%	24.8%
10	Bryce Heard	G	So	6'6"	36-6	18.4	6.6	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.9%	36.6%	2.0	79.1%	20.5%
3	Jaiun Simon	F	So	6'6"	36-16	18.3	5.6	3.3	1.2	0.8	53.7%	40.0%	1.0	80.5%	17.7%
24	Jacob Conner	F	Sr	6'10"	36-8	17.0	3.2	2.3	1.1	0.6	50.0%	29.7%	1.8	63.0%	12.8%
1	Malcolm Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	26-0	8.7	4.0	1.5	0.3	0.7	54.8%	33.3%	0.7	56.8%	29.2%
22	Damon Friery	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.6	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.2	44.4%	35.3%	1.1	50.0%	22.5%
50	Sean Pouedet	G	Fr	6'2"	14-0	5.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	38.9%	25.0%	0.3	100.0%	12.9%
11	Evan Dickey	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	14.6%
33	Makai Grant	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.0	37.5%	33.3%	0.5	—	33.9%
25	Will Maxwell	G	Jr	6'4"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.6%
8	Jaron McKie	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Dayton2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Javon Bennett	G	Sr	5'10"	37-37	34.5	15.8	2.2	2.9	1.4	49.0%	34.7%	7.0	89.8%	27.3%
7	Keonte Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	37-37	30.2	7.7	5.3	2.2	1.4	53.9%	31.7%	1.1	63.1%	16.1%
29	Amael L'Etang	F	So	7'1"	33-31	25.5	11.9	5.9	1.6	2.1	55.7%	36.1%	2.9	76.5%	27.6%
4	Jordan Derkack	G	Sr	6'5"	32-14	24.8	9.2	4.8	2.5	1.7	40.9%	27.6%	1.8	72.2%	24.8%
10	Bryce Heard	G	So	6'6"	36-6	18.4	6.6	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.9%	36.6%	2.0	79.1%	20.5%
3	Jaiun Simon	F	So	6'6"	36-16	18.3	5.6	3.3	1.2	0.8	53.7%	40.0%	1.0	80.5%	17.7%
24	Jacob Conner	F	Sr	6'10"	36-8	17.0	3.2	2.3	1.1	0.6	50.0%	29.7%	1.8	63.0%	12.8%
1	Malcolm Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	26-0	8.7	4.0	1.5	0.3	0.7	54.8%	33.3%	0.7	56.8%	29.2%
22	Damon Friery	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.6	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.2	44.4%	35.3%	1.1	50.0%	22.5%
50	Sean Pouedet	G	Fr	6'2"	14-0	5.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	38.9%	25.0%	0.3	100.0%	12.9%
11	Evan Dickey	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	14.6%
33	Makai Grant	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.0	37.5%	33.3%	0.5	—	33.9%
25	Will Maxwell	G	Jr	6'4"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.6%
8	Jaron McKie	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Dayton

Against the spread

Season

17-18-2

Home

8-10

Road

6-6-1

Last 10

5-3-2

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 2 pushesCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-24

Home

4-14

Road

6-7

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −11.4

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 25	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 55–61	−7.0	L−13.0	140.0	U116	87.6	97.2	62.8
Mar 21	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	W 80–61	−3.5	W+15.5	138.5	O141	125.8	95.9	63.6
Mar 18	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	W 80–66	−2.5	W+11.5	141.0	O146	133.9	110.4	59.8
Mar 15	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 62–70	+2.5	L−5.5	138.5	U132	96.0	108.4	64.6
Mar 14	Saint LouisAdjEM #20	N	W 70–69	+5.0	W+6.0	145.5	U139	102.3	100.8	68.4
Mar 13	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	N	W 68–63	−5.0	P0.0	142.0	U131	103.3	95.7	65.8
Mar 6	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 62–68	−1.5	L−7.5	147.0	U130	102.2	112.1	60.6
Mar 3	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	W 65–60	−5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	105.1	97.0	61.8
Feb 27	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	W 68–66	+2.5	W+4.5	152.0	U134	101.7	98.7	66.9
Feb 24	#23Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 77–62	+3.5	W+18.5	157.5	U139	110.9	89.3	69.4

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DaytonMemphis

Efficiency

109.9

106.9

102.2

105.8

67.8

70.1

—

Shooting

51.6%

48.7%

52.1%

49.4%

33.9%

31.6%

75.4%

72.1%

46.2%

34.7%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

18.9%

21.0%

18.5%

26.9%

35.3%

28.8%

35.6%

9.9%

11.3%

11.4%

10.4%

Style

41.4%

33.7%

41.6%

44.9%

14.1%

17.0%

59.1%

49.8%

27.4%

40.2%

Roster

3.13

3.19

6'5.6"

85.2%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Dayton

Returning minutes: 85.2%Returning production: 82.2%

Lost

De'Shayne Montgomery 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Jaron McKie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.