CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceG.B. Hodge Center, Spartanburg, SC
West Georgia
Efficiency #304
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-11 conf
@
SC Upstate
Efficiency #284
2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
70.7
win 33%
Projected
75.7
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: UPST −5.0 · total 146.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: SC Upstate 68.5, West Georgia 69.4 → 69.6 possessions
+2.7
SC Upstate offense vs West Georgia defense
−1.8
West Georgia offense vs SC Upstate defense
−2.8
Projected total
146.5
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
SC Upstate offense vs West Georgia defense
−1.8
West Georgia offense vs SC Upstate defense
+2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
SC Upstate by 5.0
5.0
West Georgia side ◂▸ SC Upstate side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.3 against a projected 146.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SC Upstate.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, West Georgia is the faster team (70.2, #89 of 365) and SC Upstate the slower (69.3, #128). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.5
model
Projected team totals
70.7 / 75.7
West Georgia / SC Upstate
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#86
West Georgia
68.5#171
SC Upstate

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashWest Georgia
Style match: ball movement
West Georgia creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); SC Upstate breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.2% — both habits push the same way.
ClashWest Georgia
Style match: 3-point volume
West Georgia rarely shoots threes (33.0% of its shots); SC Upstate runs teams off the line (36.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.1% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageWest Georgia
Where West Georgia struggles: shooting
West Georgia shoots an effective 49.6% (#261); SC Upstate allows 51.0% (#156). Expect about 50.1%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSC Upstate
Style match: paint scoring
SC Upstate scores 46.2% of its points in the paint; West Georgia gives up 49.3% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.8% — both habits push the same way.
ClashWest Georgia
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
West Georgia (#2 in shot-blocking exposure) against SC Upstate (#39 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 9.9%. Historically SC Upstate's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
West Georgia has the ball
OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #261
51.0% #156
-1.6 pt/100
15.9% #128
16.4% #194
+0.9 pt/100
31.5% #142
31.4% #224
+0.8 pt/100
29.2% #329
36.0% #211
-0.3 pt/100
70.4% #259
—
-0.2 pt/100
West Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100
SC Upstate has the ball
OffenseWest Georgia allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #307
53.4% #281
-0.9 pt/100
18.2% #283
14.7% #310
+0.6 pt/100
29.2% #231
29.0% #102
-0.9 pt/100
32.8% #239
36.9% #234
+0.0 pt/100
68.1% #324
—
-0.4 pt/100
SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
West Georgiaoffense vsSC Upstatedefense
Share of shots by zone
West Georgia shoots
SC Upstate allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26154.7%#5658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.9%#945.5%#30939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21235.7%#9638.0%
Three33.1%#22235.6%#28933.7%
SC Upstateoffense vsWest Georgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
SC Upstate shoots
West Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.8%#30360.8%#26258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.4%#13644.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.5%#20239.6%#22838.0%
Three31.4%#30833.1%#12833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
West Georgia
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#142
Def reb %
71.0%
#102
Turnover %
15.9%
#128
Forced TO %
14.7%
#310
FT rate
29.2%
#329
FT allowed
36.9%
#234
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.4
SC Upstate
−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#231
Def reb %
68.6%
#224
Turnover %
18.2%
#283
Forced TO %
16.4%
#194
FT rate
32.8%
#239
FT allowed
36.0%
#211
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2

West Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#264 of 365) to SC Upstate’s −2.6 (#289).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

West Georgia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Shelton Williams-DrydenFSr6'6"32-3235.220.79.11.52.051.7%23.6%2.372.3%33.4%
11Kolten GriffinFSr6'6"32-3233.37.74.22.81.751.4%35.0%1.961.5%15.4%
10Josh SmithGJr6'3"31-627.116.22.12.11.447.0%34.8%5.773.7%36.3%
23Malcolm NoelGSr5'11"28-1823.78.11.93.42.148.0%31.1%3.775.0%23.3%
22Kenneth ChimeFFr6'9"32-2820.35.05.90.30.757.9%—0.043.8%14.5%
5JaVar DanielFJr6'10"31-419.27.45.30.70.654.5%50.0%0.670.0%21.2%
1Brady HardewigGSo6'2"31-2617.33.91.30.80.554.8%36.7%2.983.3%13.3%
6Matija ZuzicGSr6'6"23-416.04.02.40.70.838.6%30.2%2.785.7%20.1%
2Chas LewlessGFr6'2"10-1028.312.82.92.92.447.3%32.8%6.488.5%29.2%
3Xavier ShegogFFr6'6"31-08.71.51.80.30.742.9%50.0%0.350.0%15.3%
12Eric BaldassarreGFr6'4"11-04.42.20.50.00.080.0%53.3%1.4—17.0%
30Cameron MerrittGSo5'11"4-03.31.00.30.30.366.7%—0.0—17.1%
14Nate JonesGSr6'2"5-02.00.40.20.00.025.0%0.0%0.60.0%24.8%
20Max YoungGFr6'3"4-02.01.30.00.00.0125.0%100.0%0.3—13.5%
25Maddox FowlesFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Micah SmithFSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
West GeorgiaSC Upstate
Efficiency
104.0
102.8
111.6
109.0
69.4
68.5
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
48.3%
49.6%
48.9%
33.1%
31.4%
70.4%
68.1%
29.2%
32.8%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
18.2%
14.7%
16.4%
31.5%
29.2%
29.0%
31.4%
9.5%
10.6%
5.6%
11.0%
Style
33.0%
35.6%
46.3%
46.2%
13.4%
14.5%
44.3%
46.0%
32.3%
35.4%
Roster
3.03
2.98
6'5"
6'4.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
West Georgia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

SC Upstate
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 212025-26SC Upstate 64 – 72 West Georgia

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.