CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse, New Orleans, LA
UL Monroe
Efficiency #351
2025-26: 4-28 · 1-18 conf
@
Tulane
Efficiency #239
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · 2:00 PM ET
71.1
win 16%
Projected
82.6
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: TULN −11.5 · total 153.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Tulane 68.0, UL Monroe 70.2 → 69.8 possessions
+3.3
Tulane offense vs UL Monroe defense
+4.9
UL Monroe offense vs Tulane defense
−2.6
Projected total
153.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Tulane offense vs UL Monroe defense
+4.9
UL Monroe offense vs Tulane defense
+2.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Tulane by 11.5
11.5
UL Monroe side ◂▸ Tulane side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.8 against a projected 153.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tulane.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UL Monroe is the faster team (70.7, #65 of 365) and Tulane the slower (67.9, #203). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.7
model
Projected team totals
71.1 / 82.6
UL Monroe / Tulane
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#37
UL Monroe
68.0#212
Tulane
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUL Monroe
Where UL Monroe struggles: shooting
UL Monroe shoots an effective 47.8% (#316); Tulane allows 50.7% (#140). Expect about 49.0%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseTulane
Tulane's shot-blocking
Tulane ranks #29 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.7% of UL Monroe's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageTulane
Where Tulane scores: shooting
Tulane shoots an effective 49.4% (#275); UL Monroe allows 57.1% (#358). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UL Monroe's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UL Monroe at about 42.1% of its shots from three, Tulane about 45.7%.
GlassTulane
Tulane gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Tulane's offense.
TurnoversTulane
Tulane protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Tulane's offense.
UL Monroe has the ball
OffenseTulane allowsvs D1 avg
47.8% #316
50.7% #140
-3.3 pt/100
16.9% #199
17.1% #140
-0.4 pt/100
25.1% #338
35.8% #352
-0.6 pt/100
38.8% #85
38.1% #262
+0.5 pt/100
72.7% #178
—
+0.0 pt/100
UL Monroe net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
Tulane has the ball
OffenseUL Monroe allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #275
57.1% #358
+2.7 pt/100
15.4% #97
15.7% #236
+1.8 pt/100
22.8% #352
35.4% #345
-1.8 pt/100
43.5% #14
27.7% #32
-0.0 pt/100
76.7% #40
—
+0.4 pt/100
Tulane net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUL Monroeoffense vsTulanedefense
Share of shots by zone
UL Monroe shoots
39.9
6.0
13.6
40.5
Tulane allows
40.6
6.9
12.8
39.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.5%#313 | 54.5%#49 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#312 | 42.4%#236 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.1%#287 | 36.8%#124 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#270 | 34.5%#216 | 33.7% |
Tulaneoffense vsUL Monroedefense
Share of shots by zone
Tulane shoots
37.2
4.0
14.5
44.4
UL Monroe allows
39.5
5.4
13.1
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#162 | 65.0%#351 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 27.0%#362 | 35.6%#74 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 32.6%#335 | 46.1%#356 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#279 | 36.9%#343 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUL Monroe
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#237 of 365
Off reb %
25.1%
#338
Def reb %
64.6%
#345
Turnover %
16.9%
#199
Forced TO %
15.7%
#236
FT rate
38.8%
#85
FT allowed
27.7%
#32
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.9
Tulane
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#255 of 365
Off reb %
22.8%
#352
Def reb %
64.2%
#352
Turnover %
15.4%
#97
Forced TO %
17.1%
#140
FT rate
43.5%
#14
FT allowed
38.1%
#262
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.7
UL Monroe has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#237 of 365) to Tulane’s −1.5 (#255).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UL Monroe2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Krystian Lewis | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 36.2 | 18.4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 42.9% | 31.5% | 6.2 | 84.1% | 32.1% | |
| 21 | MJ Russell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 35.7 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 31.3% | 5.2 | 69.9% | 27.3% | |
| 4 | Lavell Brodnex | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-24 | 31.6 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 56.9% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 71.5% | 24.6% | |
| 5 | Renars Sondors | F | So | 6'9" | 28-25 | 28.5 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 53.7% | 34.4% | 4.6 | 68.3% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Alex Molofeev | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-21 | 21.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 47.7% | 26.4% | 1.8 | 60.0% | 16.8% | |
| 0 | Dylan Diaz | G | Jr | 6'2" | 23-15 | 22.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 37.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 16.5% | |
| 2 | Micah Caster | G | So | 6'2" | 27-3 | 13.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 34.4% | 32.4% | 1.3 | 75.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Wiggy Ball | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-0 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 0.2 | 70.0% | 5.9% | |
| 23 | Ayomide Bamisile | F | So | 6'7" | 22-6 | 13.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 50.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 50.0% | 12.9% | |
| 1 | Przemek Hartman | F | Fr | 6'9" | 25-2 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 46.7% | 19.0% | 0.8 | 38.9% | 20.1% | |
| 12 | Alex Huguet Carrasco | G | Fr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 46.4% | 26.7% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 16.7% | |
| 6 | Ajay Tew | G | Jr | 6'11" | 13-0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.8% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 80.0% | 38.7% | |
| 32 | Cam Campbell | G | So | 6'3" | 8-0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 13 | Brady Craig | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Brentay Noel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Tulane2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Tulane's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rowan Brumbaugh | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 36.1 | 19.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 52.8% | 36.0% | 5.3 | 80.4% | 29.9% | |
| 99 | Curtis Williams Jr. | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-32 | 32.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49.4% | 33.5% | 6.2 | 82.5% | 24.4% | |
| 22 | Asher Woods | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-31 | 30.9 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 45.7% | 27.2% | 3.5 | 85.0% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Scotty Middleton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 33-19 | 25.7 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 52.7% | 36.9% | 4.3 | 73.9% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Tyler Ringgold | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 24.8 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 49.3% | 29.9% | 2.4 | 62.8% | 24.4% | |
| 23 | Percy Daniels | C | Sr | 6'10" | 32-4 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 62.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 72.4% | 8.0% | |
| 9 | KJ Greene | G | So | 6'3" | 32-1 | 15.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 40.1% | 22.5% | 1.3 | 78.9% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Josiah Moore | G | So | 6'4" | 32-2 | 12.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 48.4% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 67.5% | 19.3% | |
| 11 | Luke Rasmussen | G | So | 6'8" | 17-11 | 15.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 46.6% | 23.3% | 1.8 | 27.3% | 13.6% | |
| 55 | Davion Bradford | C | Sr | 7'0" | 11-0 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 11.7% | |
| 15 | Robert Moore | G | Fr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.4% | 25.0% | 1.6 | — | 40.0% | |
| 34 | Jake Shapiro | G | Jr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 112.5% | 75.0% | 0.8 | — | 38.9% | |
| 32 | Luke Cronin | F | Jr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.9% | |
| 77 | Vasilije Kuridza | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 13 | Joseph Teich | G | So | 5'10" | 2-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UL Monroe2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Krystian Lewis | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 36.2 | 18.4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 42.9% | 31.5% | 6.2 | 84.1% | 32.1% | |
| 21 | MJ Russell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 35.7 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 31.3% | 5.2 | 69.9% | 27.3% | |
| 4 | Lavell Brodnex | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-24 | 31.6 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 56.9% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 71.5% | 24.6% | |
| 5 | Renars Sondors | F | So | 6'9" | 28-25 | 28.5 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 53.7% | 34.4% | 4.6 | 68.3% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Alex Molofeev | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-21 | 21.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 47.7% | 26.4% | 1.8 | 60.0% | 16.8% | |
| 0 | Dylan Diaz | G | Jr | 6'2" | 23-15 | 22.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 37.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 16.5% | |
| 2 | Micah Caster | G | So | 6'2" | 27-3 | 13.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 34.4% | 32.4% | 1.3 | 75.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Wiggy Ball | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-0 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 0.2 | 70.0% | 5.9% | |
| 23 | Ayomide Bamisile | F | So | 6'7" | 22-6 | 13.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 50.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 50.0% | 12.9% | |
| 1 | Przemek Hartman | F | Fr | 6'9" | 25-2 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 46.7% | 19.0% | 0.8 | 38.9% | 20.1% | |
| 12 | Alex Huguet Carrasco | G | Fr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 46.4% | 26.7% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 16.7% | |
| 6 | Ajay Tew | G | Jr | 6'11" | 13-0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.8% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 80.0% | 38.7% | |
| 32 | Cam Campbell | G | So | 6'3" | 8-0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 13 | Brady Craig | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Brentay Noel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UL Monroe
Against the spread
Season
17-12
Home
6-5
Road
9-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.5
Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 10 as an underdogCovered 6 of 8 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
20-9
Home
7-4
Road
11-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +8.4
Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 5 of 8 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | Old Dominion | N | L 80–87 | +10.5 | W+3.5 | 157.5 | O167 | 114.6 | 124.6 | 69.8 |
| Feb 27 | Troy | A | L 65–80 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 153.5 | U145 | 104.3 | 128.4 | 62.3 |
| Feb 25 | South Alabama | A | L 54–89 | +14.5 | L−20.5 | 153.5 | U143 | 80.3 | 132.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Arkansas St | H | L 94–102 | +15.5 | W+7.5 | 164.0 | O196 | 120.9 | 131.2 | 77.8 |
| Feb 18 | Troy | H | L 76–77 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 155.5 | U153 | 107.6 | 109.0 | 70.6 |
| Feb 14 | Texas St | A | L 84–95 | +14.0 | W+3.0 | 149.0 | O179 | 131.0 | 148.1 | 64.1 |
| Feb 11 | Arkansas St | A | L 70–103 | +21.0 | L−12.0 | 163.0 | O173 | 94.6 | 139.2 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Ball State | H | L 68–73 | +4.5 | L−0.5 | 143.5 | U141 | 98.1 | 105.3 | 69.3 |
| Feb 4 | Old Dominion | A | W 85–79 | +14.5 | W+20.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 115.0 | 106.8 | 73.9 |
| Feb 1 | Coastal | H | L 79–83 | +9.0 | W+5.0 | 145.0 | O162 | 118.4 | 124.4 | 66.7 |
Tulane
Against the spread
Season
15-17
Home
7-10
Road
6-4
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
6-11
Road
5-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Charlotte | N | L 60–74 | +1.0 | L−13.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 98.3 | 121.3 | 61.0 |
| Mar 11 | Memphis | N | W 81–69 | +4.5 | W+16.5 | 150.5 | U150 | 114.8 | 97.8 | 70.5 |
| Mar 8 | Memphis | H | L 95–96 OT | +2.5 | W+1.5 | 154.0 | O191 | 122.9 | 124.2 | 77.3 |
| Mar 5 | Temple | A | L 60–89 | +5.0 | L−24.0 | 145.0 | O149 | 89.1 | 132.2 | 67.3 |
| Mar 1 | South Florida | A | L 62–90 | +15.0 | L−13.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 85.1 | 123.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 25 | Tulsa | H | L 56–90 | +5.5 | L−28.5 | 156.5 | U146 | 84.4 | 135.6 | 66.4 |
| Feb 22 | Rice | H | W 81–75 | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 147.5 | O156 | 118.1 | 109.3 | 68.6 |
| Feb 19 | North Texas | A | W 77–71 | +6.5 | W+12.5 | 137.5 | O148 | 117.4 | 108.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 15 | UAB | A | W 55–54 | +7.0 | W+8.0 | 152.5 | U109 | 87.7 | 86.1 | 62.7 |
| Feb 11 | Temple | H | W 77–66 | −2.0 | W+9.0 | 145.0 | U143 | 113.4 | 97.2 | 67.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUL MonroeTulane
Efficiency
103.0
106.8
117.2
110.2
70.2
68.0
—
—
Shooting
47.8%
49.4%
47.4%
50.5%
32.2%
32.0%
72.7%
76.7%
38.8%
43.5%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
15.4%
15.7%
17.1%
25.1%
22.8%
35.4%
35.8%
10.2%
8.7%
11.7%
10.9%
Style
41.9%
45.0%
37.9%
37.1%
11.4%
10.8%
50.2%
54.8%
23.7%
26.0%
Roster
2.31
2.94
6'4.6"
6'5.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUL Monroe
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Tulane
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Tulane's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.