CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteKirby Sports Center, Easton, PALafayette Classic
Niagara
Efficiency #337
2025-26: 8-22 · 5-15 conf
vs
Maine
Efficiency #335
2025-26: 8-24 · 6-11 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00 PM ET
65.0
win 49%
Projected
65.2
win 51%
No line posted yet.
Model: ME −0.2 · total 130.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Maine 66.6, Niagara 65.0 → 63.3 possessions
−11.0
Maine offense vs Niagara defense
−3.4
Niagara offense vs Maine defense
−3.6
Projected total
130.2
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Maine offense vs Niagara defense
−3.4
Niagara offense vs Maine defense
+3.6
Maine by 0.2
0.2
Niagara side ◂▸ Maine side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Maine.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 63.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Maine is the faster team (64.9, #332 of 365) and Niagara the slower (63.1, #363). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
63.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
130.2
model
Projected team totals
65.0 / 65.2
Niagara / Maine
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.0#364
Niagara
66.6#315
Maine
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Maine averages 64.9 possessions per 40, Niagara 63.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMaine
Where Maine struggles: the offensive glass
Maine rebounds 19.7% of its own misses (#364); Niagara lets opponents grab 32.9% of their own misses (#297). Expect about 24.2%, 6.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNiagara
Where Niagara struggles: ball control
Niagara turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#319); Maine forces turnovers on 19.4% of opponent possessions (#36). Expect about 19.7%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Maine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Niagara at about 38.5% of its shots from three, Maine about 38.1%.
DefenseMaine
Maine's ball-hawking
Maine ranks #25 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Niagara's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Niagara has the ball
OffenseMaine allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #214
50.6% #136
-1.1 pt/100
18.9% #319
19.4% #36
-3.6 pt/100
24.8% #344
34.3% #322
-1.3 pt/100
26.6% #353
33.9% #148
-0.6 pt/100
72.2% #203
—
-0.0 pt/100
Niagara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.5 pts/100
Maine has the ball
OffenseNiagara allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #263
52.8% #260
-0.3 pt/100
19.1% #325
16.6% #179
-1.5 pt/100
19.7% #364
32.9% #297
-3.8 pt/100
38.4% #93
33.8% #144
+0.1 pt/100
64.3% #363
—
-0.7 pt/100
Maine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNiagaraoffense vsMainedefense
Share of shots by zone
Niagara shoots
43.4
3.5
12.3
40.8
Maine allows
41.6
5.6
16.3
36.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.1%#320 | 60.5%#251 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.3%#339 | 47.1%#334 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#109 | 42.5%#318 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.7%#188 | 29.3%#4 | 33.7% |
Maineoffense vsNiagaradefense
Share of shots by zone
Maine shoots
41.9
3.7
17.1
37.3
Niagara allows
39.2
4.4
17.0
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.2%#263 | 58.7%#176 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.1%#101 | 41.5%#225 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.9%#148 | 40.6%#260 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.2%#314 | 35.3%#268 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNiagara
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#356 of 365
Off reb %
24.8%
#344
Def reb %
67.1%
#297
Turnover %
18.9%
#319
Forced TO %
16.6%
#179
FT rate
26.6%
#353
FT allowed
33.8%
#144
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Maine
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#309 of 365
Off reb %
19.7%
#364
Def reb %
65.7%
#322
Turnover %
19.1%
#325
Forced TO %
19.4%
#36
FT rate
38.4%
#93
FT allowed
33.9%
#148
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.4
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Maine has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.2 (#309 of 365) to Niagara’s −5.9 (#356).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Niagara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cole Farrellat Long Beach St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 20.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 27.5% | 1.6 | 65.4% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Trenton Walters | G | Sr | 5'9" | 25-7 | 22.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 40.8% | 35.4% | 3.2 | 81.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Logan Woodsat Wright St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 35-8 | 18.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 54.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 17.7% | |
| 8 | Bastien Rieberat Fresno St | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-7 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48.4% | 34.8% | 1.4 | 74.5% | 17.0% | |
| 77 | Tae Blackshearat Youngstown St | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 76.2% | 29.7% | |
| 1 | Vukasin Todorovicat Green Bay | F | So | 6'8" | 20-0 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 24.5% | |
| 9 | Gael Dalmau | G | So | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 41.2% | 26.7% | 1.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 12 | Brian Angeletti | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Daniel Emokhare | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Fidel Rotta | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Jackson Redmond | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Noah Slingerland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ruey Ruey | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Samuele Miccoli | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tae Blackshear (from Youngstown St), Cole Farrell (from Long Beach St), Bastien Rieber (from Fresno St), Vukasin Todorovic (from Green Bay), Logan Woods (from Wright St)
Maine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Maine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TJ Biel | F | Sr | 6'9" | 30-30 | 32.5 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50.5% | 33.0% | 3.6 | 68.7% | 23.1% | |
| 3 | Ryan Mabrey | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-29 | 27.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 49.3% | 34.3% | 4.7 | 66.7% | 18.9% | |
| 0 | Logan Carey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-27 | 25.4 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 54.0% | 35.6% | 1.8 | 64.8% | 25.0% | |
| 11 | Ace Flagg | F | Fr | 6'7" | 32-11 | 24.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 50.9% | 35.6% | 1.8 | 69.7% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Mekhi Gray | G | Sr | 6'4" | 28-23 | 26.5 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 53.8% | 30.2% | 2.3 | 69.2% | 23.8% | |
| 4 | Caleb Crawford | G | So | 6'0" | 32-6 | 19.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 42.0% | 26.3% | 1.8 | 65.9% | 18.6% | |
| 25 | Keelan Steele | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-23 | 20.6 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 60.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 56.3% | 26.0% | |
| 14 | Amare Allen | F | So | 6'7" | 24-5 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 42.9% | 28.1% | 1.3 | 55.9% | 21.9% | |
| 6 | Yanis Bamba | F | Jr | 6'6" | 25-2 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 39.5% | 18.8% | 1.3 | 60.0% | 20.4% | |
| 64 | Bashir N'Galang | G | Fr | 6'3" | 21-4 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 44.6% | 18.2% | 0.5 | 57.9% | 24.4% | |
| 5 | Isaac Bonilla | G | Jr | 6'1" | 22-0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 1.6 | 0.0% | 16.1% | |
| 12 | Emmitt Byther | F | Fr | 6'6" | 11-0 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 1.7% | |
| 10 | Killian Gribben | F | Sr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 58.1% | |
| 8 | Darius Lopes | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | John Shea | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Joshua Ojuri | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Niagara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cole Farrellat Long Beach St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 20.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 27.5% | 1.6 | 65.4% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Trenton Walters | G | Sr | 5'9" | 25-7 | 22.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 40.8% | 35.4% | 3.2 | 81.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Logan Woodsat Wright St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 35-8 | 18.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 54.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 17.7% | |
| 8 | Bastien Rieberat Fresno St | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-7 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48.4% | 34.8% | 1.4 | 74.5% | 17.0% | |
| 77 | Tae Blackshearat Youngstown St | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 76.2% | 29.7% | |
| 1 | Vukasin Todorovicat Green Bay | F | So | 6'8" | 20-0 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 24.5% | |
| 9 | Gael Dalmau | G | So | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 41.2% | 26.7% | 1.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 12 | Brian Angeletti | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Daniel Emokhare | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Fidel Rotta | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Jackson Redmond | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Noah Slingerland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ruey Ruey | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Samuele Miccoli | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tae Blackshear (from Youngstown St), Cole Farrell (from Long Beach St), Bastien Rieber (from Fresno St), Vukasin Todorovic (from Green Bay), Logan Woods (from Wright St)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Niagara
Against the spread
Season
13-16
Home
7-5
Road
6-10
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.4
Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15
Home
6-6
Road
7-9
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.7
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Merrimack | H | L 66–73 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 127.0 | O139 | 108.9 | 120.5 | 60.6 |
| Feb 27 | Quinnipiac | H | W 78–76 OT | +8.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O154 | 113.8 | 110.9 | 68.6 |
| Feb 22 | Rider | A | L 62–67 | −2.0 | L−7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 95.5 | 103.3 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Mount St Marys | A | L 63–76 | +7.5 | L−5.5 | 131.0 | O139 | 90.1 | 108.6 | 69.9 |
| Feb 15 | Iona | H | W 70–68 | +4.5 | W+6.5 | 132.0 | O138 | 124.8 | 121.2 | 56.1 |
| Feb 13 | Manhattan | H | L 69–76 | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O145 | 108.9 | 119.9 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | Quinnipiac | A | L 55–56 | +13.5 | W+12.5 | 137.5 | U111 | 92.9 | 94.6 | 59.2 |
| Feb 3 | Canisius | H | W 65–56 | −2.0 | W+7.0 | 127.0 | U121 | 113.0 | 97.3 | 57.5 |
| Feb 1 | Marist | H | L 46–58 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 130.0 | U104 | 75.2 | 94.8 | 61.2 |
| Jan 30 | Siena | H | L 79–82 | +10.0 | W+7.0 | 128.0 | O161 | 125.3 | 130.1 | 63.0 |
Maine
Against the spread
Season
13-17-1
Home
3-8
Road
8-9-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.1
Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
11-18-2
Home
3-8
Road
8-8-2
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.6
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 10 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | NJIT | A | L 58–60 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 133.5 | U118 | 89.5 | 92.5 | 64.8 |
| Mar 3 | UMass Lowell | H | L 56–67 | +1.0 | L−10.0 | 140.5 | U123 | 85.2 | 102.0 | 65.7 |
| Feb 28 | Binghamton | A | L 67–74 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | O141 | 101.8 | 112.4 | 65.8 |
| Feb 26 | UAlbany | A | W 70–59 | +5.5 | W+16.5 | 131.5 | U129 | 116.3 | 98.0 | 60.2 |
| Feb 21 | New Hampshire | A | W 61–58 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 136.0 | U119 | 93.8 | 89.2 | 65.0 |
| Feb 14 | NJIT | H | L 58–67 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 137.0 | U125 | 85.7 | 98.9 | 67.7 |
| Feb 12 | UMBC | H | L 62–78 | +3.5 | L−12.5 | 135.5 | O140 | 91.6 | 115.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 7 | Bryant | A | L 67–73 | +2.5 | L−3.5 | 128.0 | O140 | 98.8 | 107.7 | 67.8 |
| Feb 5 | Vermont | H | W 76–70 | +7.5 | W+13.5 | 130.0 | O146 | 120.7 | 111.2 | 63.0 |
| Jan 31 | UMass Lowell | A | L 77–91 | +4.5 | L−9.5 | 137.5 | O168 | 108.3 | 128.0 | 71.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNiagaraMaine
Efficiency
102.5
98.0
113.6
108.8
65.0
66.6
—
—
Shooting
50.5%
49.6%
50.5%
51.2%
33.7%
31.2%
72.2%
64.3%
26.6%
38.4%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
19.1%
16.6%
19.4%
24.8%
19.7%
32.9%
34.3%
10.4%
9.5%
9.7%
9.0%
Style
40.5%
37.0%
45.0%
45.1%
10.1%
13.6%
60.0%
54.4%
37.6%
32.9%
Roster
3.67
2.99
6'3.4"
6'5.3"
10.2%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNiagara
Returning minutes: 10.2%Returning production: 8.3%
Lost
- Reggie Prudhomme 26.4 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Hawkins 26.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Page 21.1 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Vice Zanki 20.3 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Josiah Sabino 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
- Will Shortt 19.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Cole Farrell from Long Beach St · 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
- Logan Woods from Wright St · 18.4 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
- Bastien Rieber from Fresno St · 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
- Tae Blackshear from Youngstown St · 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Vukasin Todorovic from Green Bay · 5.9 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
- Brian Angeletti no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Maine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Maine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.