CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMaples Pavilion, Stanford, CA

Portland

Efficiency #259

2025-26: 15-19 · 8-13 conf

Stanford

Efficiency #77

2025-26: 20-13 · 9-10 conf

Sun, Nov 29 · 5:00 PM ET

68.6

win 16%

Projected

80.4

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: STAN −11.8 · total 149.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Stanford 68.1, Portland 69.1 → 68.9 possessions

+1.2

Stanford offense vs Portland defense

+3.7

Portland offense vs Stanford defense

−4.1

Projected total

149.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Stanford offense vs Portland defense

+3.7

Portland offense vs Stanford defense

+4.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Stanford by 11.8

11.8

Portland side ◂▸ Stanford side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Stanford.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Portland is the faster team (69.7, #105 of 365) and Stanford the slower (67.9, #209). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.0

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 80.4

Portland / Stanford

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#114

Portland

68.1#201

Stanford

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantagePortland

Where Portland struggles: ball control

Portland turns it over on 19.7% of possessions (#342); Stanford forces turnovers on 18.0% of opponent possessions (#97). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashStanford

Style match: 3-point volume

Stanford takes 44.0% of its shots from three; Portland lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.1% — both habits push the same way.

ClashPortland

Style match: 3-point volume

Portland rarely shoots threes (35.4% of its shots); Stanford runs teams off the line (33.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.3% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Portland) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Portland at about 32.3% of its shots from three, Stanford about 47.1%.

ClashStanford

Style clash: ball movement

Stanford creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); Portland allows assists on 66.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 57.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

AdvantageStanford

Where Stanford scores: the offensive glass

Stanford rebounds 32.5% of its own misses (#109); Portland lets opponents grab 32.5% of their own misses (#281). Expect about 32.9%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions.

Portland has the ball

OffenseStanford allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #188

51.0% #158

-0.3 pt/100

19.7% #342

18.0% #97

-3.0 pt/100

28.1% #266

29.8% #149

-1.2 pt/100

34.4% #197

40.3% #305

+0.4 pt/100

74.0% #131

—

+0.1 pt/100

Portland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100

Stanford has the ball

OffensePortland allowsvs D1 avg

51.5% #173

52.7% #255

+1.2 pt/100

15.5% #103

17.0% #151

+0.7 pt/100

32.5% #109

32.5% #281

+1.5 pt/100

35.5% #165

32.6% #118

-0.2 pt/100

73.2% #163

—

+0.1 pt/100

Stanford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Portlandoffense vsStanforddefense

Share of shots by zone

Portland shoots

41.7

8.2

15.3

34.8

Stanford allows

42.1

6.8

18.0

33.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#53	58.2%#153	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.3%#74	38.8%#155	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.4%#208	39.9%#242	38.0%
Three	29.9%#344	32.9%#118	33.7%

Stanfordoffense vsPortlanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Stanford shoots

39.5

6.7

10.0

43.8

Portland allows

35.3

5.5

13.9

45.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.8%#321	59.2%#200	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.0%#193	29.5%#14	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.1%#53	37.2%#136	38.0%
Three	35.2%#103	36.1%#308	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Portland

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#290 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#266

Def reb %

67.5%

#281

Turnover %

19.7%

#342

Forced TO %

17.0%

#151

FT rate

34.4%

#197

FT allowed

32.6%

#118

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−2.0

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.7

Stanford

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365

Off reb %

32.5%

#109

Def reb %

70.2%

#149

Turnover %

15.5%

#103

Forced TO %

18.0%

#97

FT rate

35.5%

#165

FT allowed

40.3%

#305

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.9

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.3

Stanford has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#121 of 365) to Portland’s −2.6 (#290).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Portland2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Portland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Joel Foxwell	G	Fr	6'1"	34-34	35.7	15.6	4.3	6.5	3.1	46.8%	31.9%	6.4	80.7%	29.3%
10	Garrett Nuckolls	G	Jr	6'6"	34-19	25.9	6.7	3.5	2.7	2.2	41.5%	17.8%	2.1	82.6%	20.9%
14	James O'Donnell	F	So	6'10"	34-23	22.5	10.0	4.4	1.1	1.9	65.1%	0.0%	0.0	60.5%	24.2%
35	Cameron Williams	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	23.9	10.6	4.6	1.0	1.1	52.6%	26.8%	1.3	79.8%	24.7%
44	Mikah Ballew	G	So	6'5"	31-15	23.6	8.7	1.9	0.9	1.3	45.8%	33.6%	4.8	81.3%	23.0%
5	Dante Censori-Hercules	G	Fr	6'7"	33-12	20.5	3.2	3.5	1.4	0.6	53.2%	14.3%	0.4	58.5%	10.0%
1	Jermaine Ballisager Webb	C	Sr	7'1"	34-17	19.8	8.9	4.3	1.4	1.2	57.4%	35.5%	1.8	71.0%	24.7%
7	Matus Hronsky	F	Sr	6'8"	31-21	18.3	5.6	2.0	0.9	1.0	50.0%	30.8%	2.9	90.5%	19.3%
3	Timo George	F	Fr	6'8"	15-1	19.9	12.5	4.9	1.4	1.7	70.5%	18.2%	0.7	71.4%	28.3%
21	NaVaughn Long	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	10.5	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.5	62.5%	55.6%	0.7	50.0%	12.1%
12	Kelson Gebbers	G	So	6'7"	15-0	5.2	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.3	50.0%	22.2%	0.6	50.0%	13.1%
2	Sam Noland	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	4.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	83.3%	7.7%
11	Riley Parker	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	19.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	80.0%	13.4%
8	Preston Lee	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.3	1.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	87.5%	100.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.4%
9	Carlin Briggs	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Marchelo Moreira	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stanford2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Benny Gealer	G	Sr	6'1"	33-31	29.5	10.9	2.5	1.7	0.7	60.3%	41.0%	6.4	89.5%	18.7%
52	Aidan Cammann	F	So	6'10"	33-15	21.7	6.5	3.8	1.4	1.1	50.0%	26.8%	1.2	70.5%	18.5%
11	Ryan Agarwal	G	Jr	6'6"	32-19	22.3	5.9	4.1	0.8	1.2	46.0%	34.9%	3.4	69.6%	19.5%
4	AJ Rohosy	F	Sr	6'9"	33-28	20.5	7.6	5.6	0.7	1.0	55.4%	—	0.0	37.8%	23.5%
25	Jeremy Dent-Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	33-4	20.1	8.2	1.8	1.5	1.2	49.0%	37.9%	4.6	82.9%	26.6%
10	Chisom Okpara	F	Sr	6'8"	17-17	28.5	13.9	3.9	2.2	2.6	44.2%	30.4%	3.3	73.0%	32.3%
15	Oskar Giltay	F	Fr	6'10"	32-5	14.6	3.3	4.1	0.3	0.7	62.7%	—	0.0	57.5%	13.8%
2	Donavin Young	F	So	6'8"	21-9	15.4	2.5	2.7	0.7	0.4	45.6%	29.6%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%
24	Jaylen Thompson	F	So	6'7"	20-6	11.2	2.3	1.2	0.3	0.3	50.0%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	14.5%
20	Cameron Grant	F	So	6'7"	20-0	10.4	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.3	36.0%	24.5%	2.6	100.0%	17.8%
12	Kristers Skrinda	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	6.1	0.8	1.6	0.1	0.1	38.9%	25.0%	0.4	—	10.2%
33	Evan Stinson	F	So	6'7"	4-0	5.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.3	50.0%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	18.5%
3	Tallis Toure	F	So	6'11"	2-0	3.5	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.4%
13	Ethan Kitch	G	So	6'2"	3-0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	37.9%
0	Anthony Batson Jr.	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Myles Jones	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Portland2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Portland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Joel Foxwell	G	Fr	6'1"	34-34	35.7	15.6	4.3	6.5	3.1	46.8%	31.9%	6.4	80.7%	29.3%
10	Garrett Nuckolls	G	Jr	6'6"	34-19	25.9	6.7	3.5	2.7	2.2	41.5%	17.8%	2.1	82.6%	20.9%
14	James O'Donnell	F	So	6'10"	34-23	22.5	10.0	4.4	1.1	1.9	65.1%	0.0%	0.0	60.5%	24.2%
35	Cameron Williams	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	23.9	10.6	4.6	1.0	1.1	52.6%	26.8%	1.3	79.8%	24.7%
44	Mikah Ballew	G	So	6'5"	31-15	23.6	8.7	1.9	0.9	1.3	45.8%	33.6%	4.8	81.3%	23.0%
5	Dante Censori-Hercules	G	Fr	6'7"	33-12	20.5	3.2	3.5	1.4	0.6	53.2%	14.3%	0.4	58.5%	10.0%
1	Jermaine Ballisager Webb	C	Sr	7'1"	34-17	19.8	8.9	4.3	1.4	1.2	57.4%	35.5%	1.8	71.0%	24.7%
7	Matus Hronsky	F	Sr	6'8"	31-21	18.3	5.6	2.0	0.9	1.0	50.0%	30.8%	2.9	90.5%	19.3%
3	Timo George	F	Fr	6'8"	15-1	19.9	12.5	4.9	1.4	1.7	70.5%	18.2%	0.7	71.4%	28.3%
21	NaVaughn Long	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	10.5	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.5	62.5%	55.6%	0.7	50.0%	12.1%
12	Kelson Gebbers	G	So	6'7"	15-0	5.2	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.3	50.0%	22.2%	0.6	50.0%	13.1%
2	Sam Noland	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	4.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	83.3%	7.7%
11	Riley Parker	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	19.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	80.0%	13.4%
8	Preston Lee	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.3	1.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	87.5%	100.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.4%
9	Carlin Briggs	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Marchelo Moreira	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Portland

Against the spread

Season

15-17

Home

11-5

Road

2-11

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

3-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.8

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	N	L 65–82	+7.0	L−10.0	144.5	O147	97.0	122.3	67.0
Mar 6	Washington StAdjEM #174	N	W 74–68	+5.5	W+11.5	150.0	U142	106.3	97.7	69.6
Mar 5	PepperdineAdjEM #307	N	W 77–68	−3.5	W+5.5	154.0	U145	111.2	98.2	69.3
Feb 28	San DiegoAdjEM #269	H	W 87–74	−3.5	W+9.5	148.5	O161	125.8	107.0	69.2
Feb 25	#9GonzagaAdjEM #8	A	L 48–89	+27.0	L−14.0	150.0	U137	71.2	131.9	67.5
Feb 21	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	L 59–71	+6.5	L−5.5	140.0	U130	86.0	103.5	68.6
Feb 18	PepperdineAdjEM #307	H	L 87–95	−7.0	L−15.0	151.0	O182	124.8	136.2	69.7
Feb 11	San DiegoAdjEM #269	A	L 58–71	+2.5	L−10.5	151.5	U129	91.0	111.4	63.7
Feb 7	Seattle UAdjEM #125	H	W 54–53	+3.5	W+4.5	143.0	U107	86.5	84.9	62.5
Feb 4	#6GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	W 87–80	+22.0	W+29.0	152.5	O167	117.7	108.2	73.9

Stanford

Against the spread

Season

16-15-2

Home

9-8-1

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +3.9

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

9-9

Road

5-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 2	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	N	L 77–82 OT	+2.0	L−3.0	135.5	O159	104.9	111.7	73.4
Mar 10	PittAdjEM #120	N	L 63–64	−5.0	L−6.0	136.5	U127	107.6	109.3	58.6
Mar 7	NC StateAdjEM #34	A	W 85–84	+9.0	W+10.0	152.5	O169	123.7	122.3	68.7
Mar 4	Notre DameAdjEM #106	A	W 86–78	−1.0	W+7.0	147.0	O164	135.5	122.9	63.5
Feb 28	SMUAdjEM #44	H	W 95–75	−1.0	W+19.0	154.5	O170	147.6	116.6	64.3
Feb 25	PittAdjEM #120	H	W 75–67	−8.0	P0.0	138.5	O142	122.1	109.1	61.4
Feb 21	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	L 66–72	+1.0	L−5.0	148.0	U138	95.2	103.8	69.3
Feb 14	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	A	L 63–68	+4.0	L−1.0	149.0	U131	100.1	108.1	62.9
Feb 11	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	A	W 70–64	−3.0	W+3.0	139.5	U134	102.2	93.4	68.5
Feb 7	Georgia TechAdjEM #201	H	W 95–72	−8.5	W+14.5	151.5	O167	130.9	99.2	72.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PortlandStanford

Efficiency

104.9

112.4

109.9

106.0

69.1

68.1

—

Shooting

51.2%

51.5%

54.7%

50.5%

29.9%

35.2%

74.0%

73.2%

34.4%

35.5%

Ball control & glass

19.7%

15.5%

17.0%

18.0%

28.1%

32.5%

29.8%

10.7%

7.3%

6.4%

9.5%

Style

35.4%

44.0%

49.2%

40.3%

10.6%

12.9%

61.6%

45.8%

31.8%

33.7%

Roster

2.28

3.04

6'6.7"

6'6.2"

—

83.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Portland

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Portland's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Stanford

Returning minutes: 83.6%Returning production: 73.5%

Lost

Ebuka Okorie 33.0 mpg, 21.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Myles Jones no D1 minutes last season
Anthony Batson Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Dec 1	2025-26	Portland 72 – 94 Stanford

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.