CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWilliam H. Pitt Center, Fairfield, CT
NJIT
Efficiency #331
2025-26: 16-17 · 11-7 conf
@
Sacred Heart
Efficiency #278
2025-26: 14-19 · 10-12 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · 2:00 PM ET
71.3
win 28%
Projected
78.1
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: SHU −6.8 · total 149.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Sacred Heart 69.0, NJIT 68.7 → 69.4 possessions
+2.3
Sacred Heart offense vs NJIT defense
+0.9
NJIT offense vs Sacred Heart defense
−2.0
Projected total
149.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Sacred Heart offense vs NJIT defense
+0.9
NJIT offense vs Sacred Heart defense
+2.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Sacred Heart by 6.8
6.8
NJIT side ◂▸ Sacred Heart side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.9 against +6.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Sacred Heart.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacred Heart is the faster team (68.4, #179 of 365) and NJIT the slower (67.9, #204). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.4
model
Projected team totals
71.3 / 78.1
NJIT / Sacred Heart
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#140
NJIT
69.0#126
Sacred Heart

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNJIT
Where NJIT struggles: shooting
NJIT shoots an effective 46.7% (#342); Sacred Heart allows 53.5% (#283). Expect about 49.8%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NJIT) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NJIT at about 42.6% of its shots from three, Sacred Heart about 49.2%.
GlassNJIT
NJIT gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.
TurnoversNJIT
NJIT protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for NJIT's offense.
ClashNJIT
Style clash: ball movement
NJIT creates off the dribble (assists on 45.7% of its baskets); Sacred Heart allows assists on 59.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
NJIT has the ball
OffenseSacred Heart allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #342
53.5% #283
-2.1 pt/100
17.1% #210
14.5% #320
+1.5 pt/100
26.2% #316
30.9% #199
-1.6 pt/100
33.2% #233
27.0% #24
-0.7 pt/100
70.5% #253
—
-0.2 pt/100
NJIT net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Sacred Heart has the ball
OffenseNJIT allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #145
50.0% #99
-0.3 pt/100
17.7% #250
16.2% #210
-0.2 pt/100
28.6% #246
32.1% #264
-0.3 pt/100
31.0% #281
37.9% #258
-0.0 pt/100
78.0% #19
—
+0.5 pt/100
Sacred Heart net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NJIToffense vsSacred Heartdefense
Share of shots by zone
NJIT shoots
Sacred Heart allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32460.4%#24658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15248.2%#34139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17538.1%#16238.0%
Three30.4%#33634.8%#24133.7%
Sacred Heartoffense vsNJITdefense
Share of shots by zone
Sacred Heart shoots
NJIT allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22557.8%#14258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.2%#14143.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27730.7%#738.0%
Three35.7%#7332.3%#7933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NJIT
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#316
Def reb %
67.9%
#264
Turnover %
17.1%
#210
Forced TO %
16.2%
#210
FT rate
33.2%
#233
FT allowed
37.9%
#258
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Sacred Heart
−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#261 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#246
Def reb %
69.1%
#199
Turnover %
17.7%
#250
Forced TO %
14.5%
#320
FT rate
31.0%
#281
FT allowed
27.0%
#24
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1

Sacred Heart has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.7 (#261 of 365) to NJIT’s −3.5 (#316).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NJIT2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1David BoldenGFr6'0"33-3329.811.82.82.82.041.9%31.8%6.780.2%28.6%
24Ari FultonGSo6'7"33-3228.310.96.21.21.547.1%26.2%3.278.9%24.2%
3Jordan RogersFSo6'6"33-3326.65.85.22.21.554.7%33.3%1.866.7%14.7%
0Sebastian RobinsonGJr6'3"30-1527.414.83.02.21.946.8%24.0%1.770.1%35.7%
11Melvyn EbonkoliFSr6'8"21-1826.17.35.70.61.751.6%—0.052.4%20.1%
25John KellyFSo6'8"33-015.64.32.50.40.647.1%34.2%1.268.8%17.6%
14Quentin DuncanGSo6'4"33-413.64.41.70.50.350.8%37.6%2.652.0%19.9%
44Rocco AwadGFr6'1"33-112.83.11.30.30.639.2%26.4%2.676.9%19.7%
32Malachi ArringtonCSo6'11"29-1514.23.93.70.00.759.7%—0.055.3%16.4%
2Jeremy ClayvilleGSo6'1"16-1419.46.81.51.51.342.7%30.1%5.2100.0%26.6%
33Zack ScherlerFFr6'11"19-06.51.01.20.20.350.0%—0.055.6%10.8%
8Jeffrey AkintoluFJr6'7"19-05.60.70.90.00.230.0%13.3%0.850.0%13.9%
7Cameron PiggeeGJr6'1"18-05.41.80.30.40.241.9%32.0%1.485.7%21.9%
5AJ AltobelliGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Stefan Jimenez-VojnicCSo6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NJITSacred Heart
Efficiency
100.5
107.6
110.6
113.6
68.7
69.0
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
52.0%
47.5%
50.4%
30.4%
35.7%
70.5%
78.0%
33.2%
31.0%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
17.7%
16.2%
14.5%
26.2%
28.6%
32.1%
30.9%
9.6%
10.2%
9.0%
9.3%
Style
40.1%
50.7%
40.9%
34.4%
12.9%
11.8%
45.7%
58.6%
33.0%
24.0%
Roster
2.09
3.12
6'4.9"
6'5.2"
—
16.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NJIT
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Sacred Heart
Returning minutes: 16.0%Returning production: 11.8%
Lost
  • Dashon Gittens 33.0 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Yann Farell 29.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nyle Ralph-Beyer 28.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mekhi Conner 27.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anquan Hill 26.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fallou Gueye 10.8 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jo Van Buggenhout from Indiana St · 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
  • Jaylen Robinson from Richmond · 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
  • Samson Reilly from Quinnipiac · 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Kevin Pikiell no D1 minutes last season
  • Griffin Barrouk no D1 minutes last season
  • Landon Krygier no D1 minutes last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Dec 132025-26Sacred Heart 65 – 49 NJIT

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.