CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFertitta Center, Houston, TX
Queens
Efficiency #191
2025-26: 21-14 · 16-5 conf
@
Houston
Efficiency #6
2025-26: 30-7 · 16-5 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
66.1
win 5%
Projected
84.7
win 95%
No line posted yet.
Model: HOU −18.6 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Houston 65.5, Queens 69.7 → 67.0 possessions
−2.9
Houston offense vs Queens defense
+10.1
Queens offense vs Houston defense
−4.7
Projected total
150.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Houston offense vs Queens defense
+10.1
Queens offense vs Houston defense
+4.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Houston by 18.6
18.6
Queens side ◂▸ Houston side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.7 against +18.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Houston.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Queens is the faster team (70.6, #68 of 365) and Houston the slower (64.8, #333). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.7
model
Projected team totals
66.1 / 84.7
Queens / Houston
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#68
Queens
65.5#355
Houston

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageHouston
Where Houston scores: ball control
Houston turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#3); Queens forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#277). Expect about 13.5%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassHouston
Houston owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.6% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Houston's offense.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Houston averages 64.8 possessions per 40, Queens 70.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Houston's defense, Queens's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Queens at about 46.4% of its shots from three, Houston about 40.5%.
DefenseHouston
Houston's shot-blocking
Houston ranks #38 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of Queens's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageQueens
Where Queens struggles: ball control
Queens turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (#54); Houston forces turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions (#14). Expect about 18.1%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
Queens has the ball
OffenseHouston allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #15
46.2% #12
+0.5 pt/100
14.8% #54
20.6% #14
-1.6 pt/100
30.2% #190
30.3% #173
-0.1 pt/100
35.4% #167
38.7% #277
+0.3 pt/100
74.9% #88
—
+0.2 pt/100
Queens net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100
Houston has the ball
OffenseQueens allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #150
54.6% #319
+2.9 pt/100
12.8% #3
15.1% #277
+4.1 pt/100
35.7% #32
33.6% #308
+3.2 pt/100
26.3% #355
38.1% #263
-0.3 pt/100
77.3% #28
—
+0.4 pt/100
Houston net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Queensoffense vsHoustondefense
Share of shots by zone
Queens shoots
Houston allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3256.6%#10458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.8%#4235.9%#9039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9529.8%#638.0%
Three35.7%#7431.6%#4933.7%
Houstonoffense vsQueensdefense
Share of shots by zone
Houston shoots
Queens allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim67.4%#658.9%#18658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.9%#14950.5%#35739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.1%#14337.8%#15338.0%
Three34.7%#13436.5%#32533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Queens
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#251 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#190
Def reb %
66.4%
#308
Turnover %
14.8%
#54
Forced TO %
15.1%
#277
FT rate
35.4%
#167
FT allowed
38.1%
#263
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Houston
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#37 of 365
Off reb %
35.7%
#32
Def reb %
69.7%
#173
Turnover %
12.8%
#3
Forced TO %
20.6%
#14
FT rate
26.3%
#355
FT allowed
38.7%
#277
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers+2.7
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.9

Houston has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#37 of 365) to Queens’s −1.3 (#251).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Queens2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Chris AshbyGSr6'2"35-3530.711.62.01.50.753.5%37.5%8.587.8%20.5%
1Nasir MannGSr6'5"35-3530.413.35.72.81.654.6%31.8%3.178.0%24.1%
24Yoav BermanGSo6'6"35-3029.212.33.93.61.748.3%29.7%4.278.7%25.2%
22Carson SchwiegerFSo6'8"34-2724.610.13.10.80.660.7%40.9%6.669.0%20.4%
6Avantae ParkerFJr6'9"35-3422.111.15.31.21.668.2%38.5%0.461.7%25.1%
0Jordan WatfordGFr6'5"35-820.811.82.63.91.961.8%37.5%0.777.8%29.0%
9Maban JabrielFSo6'9"35-219.87.73.81.00.961.6%43.2%3.277.4%19.9%
7Gus LarsonFSr6'10"35-111.83.12.10.70.755.3%18.8%0.557.4%16.8%
3Isaiah HenryGFr6'4"26-07.93.01.70.40.555.0%25.0%0.673.3%22.2%
5Kam ClarkFJr6'7"26-37.31.81.00.30.335.1%11.1%1.078.9%19.1%
4Reid CelestinGJr6'6"15-02.90.20.70.20.220.0%0.0%0.125.0%12.9%
12Tyler CriderGFr6'0"8-01.30.00.00.10.00.0%0.0%0.4—22.6%
25Jacob BrandlyGFr6'6"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
35Colby ChristiansenGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Danzelle Bullock ColesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Jimma JamesGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Matthew WalterGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Saif-Allah ZatariGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Seamus WilsonGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
QueensHouston
Efficiency
113.5
117.7
114.4
96.5
69.7
65.5
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
51.9%
58.9%
51.7%
35.7%
34.7%
74.9%
77.3%
35.4%
26.3%
Ball control & glass
14.8%
12.8%
15.1%
20.6%
30.2%
35.7%
33.6%
30.3%
9.0%
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
Style
46.5%
40.7%
43.6%
37.3%
13.2%
10.4%
54.9%
52.6%
32.2%
29.6%
Roster
2.73
2.52
6'6.2"
6'6.9"
—
40.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Queens
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Houston
Returning minutes: 40.7%Returning production: 36.1%
Lost
  • Milos Uzan 33.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kingston Flemings 31.6 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Emanuel Sharp 29.4 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chris Cenac Jr. 24.9 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Bryce Jackson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 41% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.