CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Utah State
Efficiency #24
2025-26: 29-7 · 18-5 conf
@
New Mexico
Efficiency #42
2025-26: 26-11 · 14-8 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
76.5
win 44%
Projected
78.1
win 56%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNM −1.7 · total 154.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: New Mexico 70.0, Utah State 68.3 → 70.0 possessions
+3.6
New Mexico offense vs Utah State defense
+0.2
Utah State offense vs New Mexico defense
+2.6
Projected total
154.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
New Mexico offense vs Utah State defense
+0.2
Utah State offense vs New Mexico defense
−2.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
New Mexico by 1.7
1.7
Utah State side ◂▸ New Mexico side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +1.6 against +1.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Mexico.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico is the faster team (70.7, #67 of 365) and Utah State the slower (68.2, #191). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.6
model
Projected team totals
76.5 / 78.1
Utah State / New Mexico
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#178
Utah State
70.0#51
New Mexico
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUtah State
Where Utah State scores: shooting
Utah State shoots an effective 56.3% (#18); New Mexico allows 49.5% (#84). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Mexico's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Utah State at about 46.1% of its shots from three, New Mexico about 42.3%.
DefenseUtah State
Utah State's ball-hawking
Utah State ranks #18 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.0% of New Mexico's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashNew Mexico
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
New Mexico (#58 in turnover rate) against Utah State (#18 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.9%. Historically Utah State's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
ClashUtah State
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Utah State (#38 in live-ball turnovers) against New Mexico (#56 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically New Mexico's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
ClashUtah State
Style clash: paint scoring
Utah State scores 47.4% of its points in the paint; New Mexico protects the paint (37.0% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Utah State has the ball
OffenseNew Mexico allowsvs D1 avg
56.3% #18
49.5% #84
+2.8 pt/100
15.1% #70
19.0% #51
-0.5 pt/100
32.7% #97
27.7% #57
+0.2 pt/100
38.8% #83
33.3% #138
+0.1 pt/100
71.0% #239
—
-0.1 pt/100
Utah State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
New Mexico has the ball
OffenseUtah State allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #82
49.7% #87
+0.7 pt/100
14.9% #58
20.3% #18
-1.4 pt/100
30.6% #176
32.8% #290
+0.8 pt/100
35.8% #160
39.2% #292
+0.4 pt/100
72.9% #176
—
+0.0 pt/100
New Mexico net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUtah Stateoffense vsNew Mexicodefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah State shoots
45.1
4.7
10.4
39.8
New Mexico allows
30.7
4.1
17.3
48.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.3%#31 | 59.1%#196 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.2%#61 | 43.4%#258 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.6%#65 | 43.4%#333 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#155 | 30.5%#20 | 33.7% |
New Mexicooffense vsUtah Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico shoots
42.6
5.3
10.7
41.4
Utah State allows
38.4
5.3
15.9
40.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#225 | 55.1%#63 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.9%#125 | 38.5%#145 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.8%#84 | 33.2%#33 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#83 | 34.5%#222 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUtah State
+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#43 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#97
Def reb %
67.2%
#290
Turnover %
15.1%
#70
Forced TO %
20.3%
#18
FT rate
38.8%
#83
FT allowed
39.2%
#292
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+2.5
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed−1.0
New Mexico
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#30 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#176
Def reb %
72.3%
#57
Turnover %
14.9%
#58
Forced TO %
19.0%
#51
FT rate
35.8%
#160
FT allowed
33.3%
#138
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.5
New Mexico has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#30 of 365) to Utah State’s +3.6 (#43).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Utah State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mason Falslev | G | Jr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 57.2% | 39.0% | 3.4 | 76.4% | 27.0% | |
| 2 | MJ Collins Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 30.8 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58.2% | 36.1% | 6.3 | 81.0% | 28.8% | |
| 22 | Karson Templin | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-8 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.0% | 32.8% | 1.8 | 65.5% | 26.4% | |
| 35 | Adlan Elamin | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-28 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.1% | 30.2% | 2.7 | 83.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Garry Clark | F | Sr | 6'9" | 36-1 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 71.6% | 14.3% | 0.2 | 53.9% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Elijah Perryman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 36-1 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 29.6% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 23.2% | |
| 32 | Zach Keller | F | Sr | 6'10" | 35-27 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 61.0% | 47.1% | 0.5 | 55.3% | 15.0% | |
| 3 | Tucker Anderson | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-8 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 53.5% | 36.0% | 2.0 | 71.4% | 16.0% | |
| 5 | Jordy Barnes | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 31.0% | 23.1% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 17.9% | |
| 20 | Luke Kearney | F | Jr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 47.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 26.0% | |
| 4 | Brayden Boe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | David Iweze | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Kingston Tosi | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
New Mexico2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jake Hall | G | Fr | 6'4" | 37-37 | 31.0 | 16.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 61.7% | 43.8% | 7.2 | 80.0% | 25.2% | |
| 3 | Luke Haupt | G | Sr | 6'7" | 37-27 | 28.1 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 71.6% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | Uriah Tenette | G | Fr | 5'11" | 36-8 | 27.5 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 47.8% | 32.4% | 3.8 | 83.2% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | Tomislav Buljan | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-35 | 26.0 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55.3% | 30.8% | 0.7 | 60.7% | 29.0% | |
| 5 | Antonio Chol | F | Jr | 6'9" | 37-32 | 24.2 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 32.3% | 5.0 | 60.0% | 19.3% | |
| 1 | Deyton Albury | G | Sr | 6'2" | 35-34 | 24.8 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 55.6% | 37.7% | 1.5 | 77.9% | 26.9% | |
| 2 | Tajavis Miller | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-0 | 16.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 34.3% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 20.0% | |
| 35 | JT Rock | C | So | 7'1" | 37-1 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 61.9% | 39.7% | 1.6 | 64.4% | 24.6% | |
| 8 | Chris Howell | G | Sr | 6'6" | 11-11 | 24.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 42.4% | 27.8% | 1.6 | 87.5% | 16.0% | |
| 31 | Milos Vicentic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 40.8% | 20.7% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 27.7% | |
| 0 | Kevin Patton Jr. | G | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 39.6% | 10.0% | 1.1 | 57.1% | 20.0% | |
| 29 | Timeo Pons | G | Fr | 6'8" | 13-0 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 45.0% | 30.4% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 29.5% | |
| 11 | Kallai Patton | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sir Marius Jones | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Utah State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mason Falslev | G | Jr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 57.2% | 39.0% | 3.4 | 76.4% | 27.0% | |
| 2 | MJ Collins Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 30.8 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58.2% | 36.1% | 6.3 | 81.0% | 28.8% | |
| 22 | Karson Templin | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-8 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.0% | 32.8% | 1.8 | 65.5% | 26.4% | |
| 35 | Adlan Elamin | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-28 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.1% | 30.2% | 2.7 | 83.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Garry Clark | F | Sr | 6'9" | 36-1 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 71.6% | 14.3% | 0.2 | 53.9% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Elijah Perryman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 36-1 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 29.6% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 23.2% | |
| 32 | Zach Keller | F | Sr | 6'10" | 35-27 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 61.0% | 47.1% | 0.5 | 55.3% | 15.0% | |
| 3 | Tucker Anderson | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-8 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 53.5% | 36.0% | 2.0 | 71.4% | 16.0% | |
| 5 | Jordy Barnes | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 31.0% | 23.1% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 17.9% | |
| 20 | Luke Kearney | F | Jr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 47.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 26.0% | |
| 4 | Brayden Boe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | David Iweze | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Kingston Tosi | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Utah State
Against the spread
Season
15-19-1
Home
5-9
Road
4-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
20-15
Home
8-6
Road
7-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.4
Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #1Arizona | N | L 66–78 | +11.5 | L−0.5 | 154.0 | U144 | 102.5 | 121.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 20 | #8Villanova | N | W 86–76 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 147.5 | O162 | 126.2 | 111.5 | 68.1 |
| Mar 14 | San Diego St | N | W 73–62 | −2.5 | W+8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 111.8 | 95.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | Nevada | N | W 79–66 | −6.5 | W+6.5 | 144.5 | O145 | 108.1 | 90.3 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | UNLV | N | W 80–60 | −8.5 | W+11.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 114.6 | 86.0 | 69.8 |
| Mar 7 | New Mexico | H | W 94–90 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 135.8 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 3 | UNLV | A | L 65–92 | −7.5 | L−34.5 | 156.5 | O157 | 92.5 | 130.9 | 70.3 |
| Feb 28 | Grand Canyon | H | W 74–69 | −9.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | U143 | 116.4 | 108.5 | 63.6 |
| Feb 25 | San Diego St | A | L 72–89 | −1.0 | L−18.0 | 147.0 | O161 | 103.5 | 128.0 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Nevada | A | L 77–80 | −5.0 | L−8.0 | 148.0 | O157 | 114.2 | 118.7 | 67.4 |
New Mexico
Against the spread
Season
21-14
Home
11-7
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +1.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
22-12-1
Home
11-6-1
Road
8-4
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | Tulsa | N | L 69–74 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 162.5 | U143 | 97.1 | 104.2 | 71.0 |
| Mar 24 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 84–69 | −10.5 | W+4.5 | 155.0 | U153 | 113.9 | 93.5 | 73.8 |
| Mar 22 | G Washington | H | W 86–61 | −7.0 | W+18.0 | 161.5 | U147 | 125.8 | 89.2 | 68.4 |
| Mar 18 | Sam Houston | H | W 107–83 | −11.5 | W+12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 140.7 | 109.2 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | San Diego St | N | L 62–64 | +2.5 | W+0.5 | 150.5 | U126 | 93.7 | 96.8 | 66.1 |
| Mar 12 | San José St | N | W 93–77 | −15.5 | W+0.5 | 154.5 | O170 | 135.2 | 111.9 | 68.8 |
| Mar 7 | Utah State | A | L 90–94 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 130.0 | 135.8 | 69.2 |
| Mar 4 | Colorado St | H | L 74–82 | −8.0 | L−16.0 | 151.0 | O156 | 101.9 | 112.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 28 | San Diego St | H | W 81–76 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 115.3 | 108.1 | 70.3 |
| Feb 24 | Nevada | A | L 60–67 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 150.0 | U127 | 84.9 | 94.7 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUtah StateNew Mexico
Efficiency
117.8
113.5
103.7
102.9
68.3
70.0
—
—
Shooting
56.3%
53.5%
59.6%
53.6%
34.3%
35.6%
71.0%
72.9%
38.8%
35.8%
Ball control & glass
15.1%
14.9%
20.3%
19.0%
32.7%
30.6%
32.8%
27.7%
8.0%
8.6%
9.8%
9.2%
Style
40.8%
41.9%
47.4%
42.8%
16.2%
15.4%
59.9%
52.8%
37.8%
31.5%
Roster
2.95
2.48
6'6.4"
6'5.5"
78.0%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUtah State
Returning minutes: 78.0%Returning production: 78.3%
Lost
- Drake Allen 24.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kolby King 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
- Kingston Tosi no D1 minutes last season
- David Iweze no D1 minutes last season
- Brayden Boe no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 78% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
New Mexico
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Mar 7 | 2025-26 | New Mexico 90 – 94 Utah State |
| Wed, Feb 4 | 2025-26 | Utah State 86 – 66 New Mexico |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.