CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFreedom Hall (TN), Johnson City, TN
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
@
ETSU
Efficiency #110
2025-26: 23-11 · 15-6 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
68.2
win 21%
Projected
77.6
win 79%
No line posted yet.
Model: ETSU −9.4 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: ETSU 67.4, Morehead St 67.0 → 66.1 possessions
−4.8
ETSU offense vs Morehead St defense
+4.0
Morehead St offense vs ETSU defense
−1.6
Projected total
145.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
ETSU offense vs Morehead St defense
+4.0
Morehead St offense vs ETSU defense
+1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
ETSU by 9.4
9.4
Morehead St side ◂▸ ETSU side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help ETSU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Morehead St is the faster team (66.8, #251 of 365) and ETSU the slower (66.5, #268). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.8
model
Projected team totals
68.2 / 77.6
Morehead St / ETSU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#288
Morehead St
67.4#257
ETSU
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseETSU
ETSU's ball-hawking
ETSU ranks #11 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.1% of Morehead St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageETSU
Where ETSU scores: shooting
ETSU shoots an effective 55.3% (#33); Morehead St allows 50.2% (#109). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St struggles: ball control
Morehead St turns it over on 18.0% of possessions (#272); ETSU forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#74). Expect about 18.6%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversETSU
ETSU protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for ETSU's offense.
GlassMorehead St
Morehead St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 32.9% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Morehead St's offense.
ClashMorehead St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Morehead St rarely shoots threes (30.5% of its shots); ETSU lets opponents take 47.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Morehead St has the ball
OffenseETSU allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
51.0% #161
-1.9 pt/100
18.0% #272
18.5% #74
-2.2 pt/100
35.8% #27
27.9% #64
+1.5 pt/100
37.7% #109
36.4% #225
+0.3 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100
ETSU has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
55.3% #33
50.2% #109
+2.5 pt/100
15.2% #78
15.4% #258
+2.2 pt/100
28.3% #252
35.8% #351
+0.7 pt/100
35.0% #180
35.6% #201
+0.0 pt/100
74.7% #93
—
+0.2 pt/100
ETSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMorehead Stoffense vsETSUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
39.8
8.7
21.1
30.4
ETSU allows
36.1
3.7
12.5
47.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#270 | 59.6%#210 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 44.8%#293 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#86 | 33.8%#48 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#281 | 32.9%#110 | 33.7% |
ETSUoffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
ETSU shoots
42.8
4.8
15.4
36.9
Morehead St allows
39.7
6.2
15.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.9%#52 | 54.7%#55 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#21 | 34.3%#49 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.1%#77 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#132 | 34.5%#221 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMorehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
ETSU
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#86 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#252
Def reb %
72.1%
#64
Turnover %
15.2%
#78
Forced TO %
18.5%
#74
FT rate
35.0%
#180
FT allowed
36.4%
#225
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
ETSU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#86 of 365) to Morehead St’s −1.0 (#234).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
ETSU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Brian Taylor II | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 33.2 | 14.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 53.2% | 34.9% | 4.5 | 76.4% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Blake Barkley | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.6 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 62.2% | 38.3% | 1.5 | 84.0% | 26.2% | |
| 15 | Cam Morris III | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 59.1% | 32.3% | 0.9 | 66.9% | 28.4% | |
| 4 | Jaylen Smith | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-3 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 49.4% | 34.4% | 4.4 | 80.0% | 25.3% | |
| 2 | Maki Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 34-1 | 22.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 38.5% | 4.0 | 64.3% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | Allen Strothers | G | Sr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 21.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 51.8% | 32.1% | 0.8 | 70.3% | 13.9% | |
| 35 | Jordan McCullum | F | So | 6'8" | 34-32 | 21.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 55.5% | 20.5% | 1.3 | 69.8% | 22.8% | |
| 24 | Isaiah Sutherland | F | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.7% | 33.9% | 2.3 | 55.6% | 19.2% | |
| 55 | Milton Matthews III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 57.9% | 38.7% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 21 | Gabe Sisk | G | Jr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 51.2% | 10.0% | 0.6 | 90.0% | 20.3% | |
| 14 | Brayden Crump | F | So | 6'8" | 11-1 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 54.3% | 31.3% | 1.5 | 70.0% | 22.1% | |
| 30 | Henry Sisemore | F | Fr | 6'8" | 7-0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 25 | Joseph Carter | G | Fr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.9% | |
| 23 | Frederico Whitaker Jr. | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Maddox Huff | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Morehead St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-3
Road
10-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.9
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Tennessee St | N | L 67–93 | +5.0 | L−21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 96.0 | 133.2 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | SE Missouri | N | W 66–61 | +4.0 | W+9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 102.1 | 94.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 26 | Little Rock | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 117.8 | 108.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | S Indiana | H | W 64–63 | −7.5 | L−6.5 | 142.5 | U127 | 105.7 | 104.0 | 60.5 |
| Feb 21 | W Illinois | A | W 81–59 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 127.6 | 92.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | E Illinois | A | W 73–70 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Tennessee St | H | W 94–86 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 135.8 | 124.3 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 73–66 | −4.0 | W+3.0 | 144.0 | U139 | 117.1 | 105.9 | 62.3 |
| Feb 7 | UT Martin | A | W 61–55 | +9.0 | W+15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 101.3 | 91.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | SE Missouri | A | L 70–82 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 99.9 | 117.1 | 70.1 |
ETSU
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
8-7
Road
6-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14-1
Home
7-7-1
Road
9-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.6
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Furman | N | L 61–76 | −1.0 | L−16.0 | 138.0 | U137 | 98.6 | 122.9 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | W Carolina | N | W 69–67 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 146.0 | U136 | 105.5 | 102.4 | 65.4 |
| Mar 7 | The Citadel | N | W 83–76 | −15.0 | L−8.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 127.7 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Feb 28 | Mercer | A | L 76–82 | +1.5 | L−4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 119.0 | 128.4 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Wofford | H | L 69–72 | −7.0 | L−10.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 103.8 | 108.3 | 66.5 |
| Feb 21 | UNC Greensboro | A | W 87–75 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 149.0 | O162 | 130.1 | 112.1 | 66.9 |
| Feb 18 | Furman | A | W 78–69 | +1.5 | W+10.5 | 141.0 | O147 | 114.4 | 101.2 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | Samford | H | L 72–82 OT | −6.0 | L−16.0 | 145.5 | O154 | 95.7 | 109.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 11 | Chattanooga | H | W 73–61 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | U134 | 110.3 | 92.2 | 66.2 |
| Feb 7 | VMI | A | W 87–70 | −14.5 | W+2.5 | 144.0 | O157 | 123.2 | 99.1 | 70.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMorehead StETSU
Efficiency
107.5
110.1
112.8
107.0
67.0
67.4
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
55.3%
49.7%
57.2%
32.0%
34.7%
74.1%
74.7%
37.7%
35.0%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
15.2%
15.4%
18.5%
35.8%
28.3%
35.8%
27.9%
10.6%
8.6%
9.2%
7.5%
Style
30.5%
37.8%
45.0%
46.9%
12.1%
12.2%
47.4%
50.8%
38.1%
34.9%
Roster
2.81
3.08
6'4.7"
6'4.7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMorehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
ETSU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 21 | 2025-26 | Morehead St 62 – 77 ETSU |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.